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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Monday Night – Increasing clouds. Shower and thunderstorm chances increasing towards morning. A couple of storms could produce small hail.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% early and then 60% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after midnight.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No. Lightning possible late.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible late. Lightning possible. Small hail and gusty winds.
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Rain will spread from west to east during the morning and afternoon. A few storms could be strong. Gusty winds and hail. Tornado risk is small. Turning colder behind the front. Perhaps a rain/snow mix as the colder air moves into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon. Nothing of significance.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures will vary. Ahead of the front expect upper 50s and lower 60s. As the front moves through the region you can expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Winds turning out of the west and northwest behind the front at 8-16 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
Rainfall totals: 0.40″-0l80″ with locally heavier amounts possible. See rainfall probability charts further down in the blog update. Lighter totals north and heavier totals east.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? A snow shower can’t be ruled out as the colder air moves into the region. No accumulation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is likely.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather risk is small. Minimal.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Lightning possible. Gusty winds near storms.
Tuesday Night – Breezy and turning colder. A chance for a few evening showers and thunderstorms over our far eastern counties. A few snow showers possible. No accumulation.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 15-30 mph before midnight. Winds will subside after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered early
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Snow showers possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Snow showers possible as precipitation ends.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? None.
What impact is expected? None.
Wednesday Night – Increasingly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after midnight
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways late at night will be possible.
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: South winds becoming northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. We could see the rain end as light snow or flurries.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways will be possible.
Thursday Night – An evening shower possible. Snow flurry possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Snow shower possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The school bus forecast will vary greatly on Tuesday. Best chances for rain in the morning will be over southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois. Best chances in the afternoon will be parts of southern Illinois into Kentucky. Temperatures will vary greatly on Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures may drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s behind the cold front. And, expect 50s ahead of the front. Temperatures will fall behind the front from west to east throughout the day. Keep that in mind.
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Showers late tonight into Tuesday
2. A few thunderstorms.
3. Colder air behind the cold front. Maybe a stray snow shower?
4 Another chance for rain on Thursday
What is the percent chance of X amount of rain falling?
Here is the probability map for our northern counties. This would include Ste Genevieve and Perry Counties in Missouri and Randolph, Jefferson, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton and White Counties in southern Illinois. Widespread 0.10″-0.30″. Locally heavier.
This graphic is for the rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Widespread 0.25″-0.50″. Locally heavier possible.
Here is the probability map for western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Perhaps the chances for the heavier totals will be over Kentucky and Tennessee. Probabilities for higher totals have been reflected in this probability graphic. Again, what is the % chance for X amount of rain to fall. You can see here that the odds favor 0.25″, 0.50″, and perhaps 0.75″. Odds go down from there.
The rest of the week?
Another fast moving system will slip into the region on Thursday. Some rain showers will be possible. Right now it appears that it will be too warm for snowflakes. But, I will continue to monitor trends. Data has been mixed on this issue. Looks a bit too warm for snow.
Our chances for snow are slipping away. I do not see snow chances next week. A large and stormy system is possible around the 8th-10th. Thunderstorms? Perhaps.
Preparing for severe weather this spring!
This is a reminder that spring typically brings several rounds of severe weather to our region.
I suggest having multiple avenues for receiving severe weather information. Here are some suggestions
- NOAA Weather Radio. The Midland 300 is my favorite. You can program what products you would like to be alerted for. If you don’t want flash flood warnings then you can filter those out. If you only want tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings then you can program it for just that. Great weather radio. Amazon has them at decent prices. Yes, you will pay a little bit more for that radio, but you won’t be bothered with every single alarm. And, those alarms can become annoying after awhile. Especially true if you don’t need all of the warning products.
- WeatherTalk texting service. Through the texting I will let you know that severe weather is in the forecast. The texts I send out are supplemental texts (not warning texts). Confirmed damage text messages, a tornado is on the ground message, baseball size hail has been reported in Scott County, Missouri texts, an intense storm is entering your county. Those are some examples. Remember, the proceeds from WeatherTalk pay for this blog, the interactive city view radars, all of the graphics you see on Facebook and Twitter, the AWARE email (which is $100 a month to produce), the text messages, and my time.
- A severe weather warning AP. There are many to choose from. I have some suggestions here
- Television and a battery powered radio.
- Outdoor sirens should be the last on your list. Outdoor sirens are meant for people outside. If you can hear them then great. But, don’t use them as your primary source for warning.
As always, I encourage you to check forecasts frequently when severe weather is in the forecast. Forecasts evolve and change. Severe weather is similar to winter storms in the difficulty level of forecasting.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Monday Night – Early Tuesday morning a few storms could produce small hail.
Tuesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be TWO. A few intense storms could occur. Overall the severe weather risk appears minimal. Lightning will be the main concern. A couple of reports of hail and gusty winds possible. Tornado risk is small, but not zero (mainly over western Kentucky)
Wednesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Thursday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Tuesday – No widespread snow or ice anticipated. Some data shows wet snowflakes over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours. No accumulation if it were to occur.
Tuesday Night – a flurry can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday – No snow or anticipated.
Thursday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
No major changes with this update.
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A few thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Umbrellas on Tuesday. Lightning will be possible. A few storms could be strong, but the overall severe weather threat appears very small.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A larger rain event is forecast for late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals will vary, as is typically the case. Some spots could very well pick up more than 1″ of rain. Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ is currently anticipated. This system has been a bit tricky to forecast on the rainfall total end.
Lowest rainfall totals would be over our northern counties. In these areas 0.20″-0.50″ appear a good bet. Central and southern areas will have heavier rain totals. Western Kentucky stands the best chance for receiving 0.50″-1.00″.
Here is the broad-brushed outlook for rainfall totals. Give or take. Another rain event is possible by Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
