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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Sunday Night – A period of clouds. Breezy early in the evening. Cool. A chance for spotty showers. Clearing late.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 20-25 mph early. Winds will shift to W/NW late and subside.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated/Scattered
Rainfall totals: None to perhaps 0.10″
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No.
What impact is expected? Breezy early in the evening. Maybe some wet roadways.
Monday – Partly sunny. A cool start for your Monday, but a mild afternoon for the commute home. Less windy.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures 58-64 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming east and then southeast late morning. Then south/southeast in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None expected.
Monday Night – Increasing clouds. Shower and thunderstorm chances increasing over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Especially after 2 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% early and then 40% towards Tuesday morning. Best chances late tonight will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after 2 am. Mainly over Missouri and Illinois. Western counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No. Lightning possible late. Mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois towards morning.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible late. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Rain will spread from west to east during the morning and afternoon. Turning colder behind the front. Perhaps a rain/snow mix as the colder air moves into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon. Nothing of significance.
Temperatures: Highs temperatures will vary. Ahead of the front expect upper 50s and lower 60s. As the front moves through the region you can expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Winds turning out of the west and northwest behind the front at 8-16 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
Rainfall totals: 0.40″-0l80″ with locally heavier amounts possible. See rainfall probability charts further down in the blog update. Lighter totals north and heavier totals east.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? A snow shower can’t be ruled out as the colder air moves into the region. No accumulation.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is likely.
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather risk is small. Minimal.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Lightning possible. Gusty winds near storms.
Tuesday Night – Breezy and turning colder. A chance for a few evening showers and thunderstorms over our far eastern counties. A few snow showers possible. No accumulation.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming northwest at 15-30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread (mainly early in the evening and mainly eastern counties of western Kentucky).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Snow showers possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain will be possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Snow showers possible as precipitation ends.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Colder.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Is severe weather expected? None.
What impact is expected? None.
Wednesday Night – Increasingly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered after midnight
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways late at night will be possible.
Thursday – Cloudy. A chance for rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: South winds becoming northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous showers likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Unlikely. We could see the rain end as light snow or flurries.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways will be possible.
Thursday Night – An evening shower possible. Snow flurry possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming northwest at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Snow shower possible
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 45-50 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Our School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Cooler on Monday
2. Rain enters the picture late Monday night into Tuesday
3. A few thunderstorms possible on Tuesday. Scattered severe storms can’t be ruled out.
4. A flurry can’t be ruled out Tuesday night
5. Another rain maker on Thursday?
Wow, was Sunday ever windy. Widespread 30-40 mph wind gusts over the region. Numerous reports of 40-45 mph winds, as well. Zoom zoom. March winds come early.
What are the rainfall probabilities. This is my second forecast graphic for rain probabilities. I increased them a little bit. This was based on the strong low idea.
What is the percent chance of X amount of rain falling? This appears to be a widespread 0.40″-0.75″ event. Locally heavier totals possible. Especially true if thunderstorms develop.
Preparing for severe weather this spring!
This is a reminder that spring typically brings several rounds of severe weather to our region.
I suggest having multiple avenues for receiving severe weather information. Here are some suggestions
- NOAA Weather Radio. The Midland 300 is my favorite. You can program what products you would like to be alerted for. If you don’t want flash flood warnings then you can filter those out. If you only want tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings then you can program it for just that. Great weather radio. Amazon has them at decent prices. Yes, you will pay a little bit more for that radio, but you won’t be bothered with every single alarm. And, those alarms can become annoying after awhile. Especially true if you don’t need all of the warning products.
- WeatherTalk texting service. Through the texting I will let you know that severe weather is in the forecast. The texts I send out are supplemental texts (not warning texts). Confirmed damage text messages, a tornado is on the ground message, baseball size hail has been reported in Scott County, Missouri texts, an intense storm is entering your county. Those are some examples. Remember, the proceeds from WeatherTalk pay for this blog, the interactive city view radars, all of the graphics you see on Facebook and Twitter, the AWARE email (which is $100 a month to produce), the text messages, and my time.
- A severe weather warning AP. There are many to choose from. I have some suggestions here
- Television and a battery powered radio.
- Outdoor sirens should be the last on your list. Outdoor sirens are meant for people outside. If you can hear them then great. But, don’t use them as your primary source for warning.
As always, I encourage you to check forecasts frequently when severe weather is in the forecast. Forecasts evolve and change. Severe weather is similar to winter storms in the difficulty level of forecasting.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Tuesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be TWO. A few strong storms possible over western Kentucky.
Wednesday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Thursday – The thunderstorm threat level will be zero
Friday – The thunderstorm thread level will be zero
No winter weather of any significance.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday Night – a flurry can’t be ruled out.
Wednesday – No snow or anticipated.
Thursday – Snow is unlikely to occur. Monitor updates.
No major changes with this update.
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Quiet weather for Monday. Lightning possible on Tuesday.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
A light shower or two will be possible Sunday night. Rainfall totals less than 0.10″.
A larger rain event is forecast for late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals will vary, as is typically the case. Some spots could very well pick up more than 1″ of rain. Widespread 0.40″-0.80″ is currently anticipated. This system has been a bit tricky to forecast on the rainfall total end. Guidance has not handled the strength of the low very well. Latest data is a bit more robust.
Here is the broad-brushed outlook for rainfall totals. Give or take. Another rain event is possible by Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
