Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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June 11, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 10 to 11 Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:05 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:53 PM

June 12, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of strong thunderstorms.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 94      IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~  90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.   High winds possible near storms.  Nickel size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few severe thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Scattered strong thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: West and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.   High winds possible near storms.  Nickel size hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates, especially early in the night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 4:45 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 7:03 PM

June 13, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~  88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72       IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Light and variable winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 5:33 AM New
Moonset: 8:12 PM

June 14, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~  88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74        KY ~ 68 to 74         TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 6:30 AM New
Moonset: 9:18 PM

June 15, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74       IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 7:32 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:18 PM

June 16, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74       IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 8:42 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:09 PM

June 17, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 94      IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~  90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74       IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.  Where summer storms occur you can have locally heavy downpours, small hail, and strong winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Typical summer isolated severe risk.  Isolated downburst winds from dying storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 9:49 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:54PM

Scattered thunderstorms are possible into next week.

Scattered thunderstorms, this time of the year, can always produce much heavier rain totals.  Questions remain on the potential track of several thunderstorm complexes later this week.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA rainfall forecast.

This is broad brushed.  It is possible that some areas remain mostly dry.  

We are in a summer pattern.  That means a WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

For some locations, these numbers are way too low.

This graphic takes us from now through Tuesday 1 AM

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast through Monday 1 PM.

Notice the differences in each of the models.  The differences center around thunderstorm complexes that commonly form during the summer months.  These complexes are tricky, at best, to forecast more than 12 to 24 hours in advance.  Rainfall totals can vary greatly within the complexes.

This next graphic is the GFS model rainfall through Monday

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall total map through Monday

Questions?  Broken links?  Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Friday through Friday night: Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday.  Scattered storms are possible Friday night, especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Confidence in storm coverage further south is lower.  Monitor updates.

Keep in mind, it is possible many areas remain dry.  If we can pull off an organized MCS (storm complex) or line of storms then more people will receive some rain.

Some of the storms will produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds.  I can’t rule out isolated severe weather, but organized severe weather appears unlikely.

Saturday into Sunday night:  Scattered storms again possible.  A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.  I can’t rule out isolated severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.

Monday night through next Friday:  Scattered summer-type thunderstorms will be possible.  Where storms occur there will be heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  At this time, organized severe weather appears unlikely.   Monitor updates.  Isolated severe weather risk.

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

1. Summer weather
2. Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

No significant changes in the going forecast.  The pattern will continue into next week.  Perhaps most of the week.

Portions of the area do need rain.

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) is an experimental tool that can serve as an indicator of both rapidly evolving “flash” droughts (developing over a few weeks) and sustained droughts.

You can see a large portion of the corn belt is in need of rain (not everyone).

The latest drought monitor index shows our region is not in drought.  Areas to the north are.

I like to use the SPI index to find areas of dry soil.  You can see sporadic to numerous areas of dryness in and near our region.

There will likely be adjustments in the % chance of thunderstorms.  Monitor updates if you have outdoor plans (monitor radars).

A rather typical summer pattern is establishing itself across our region.

A front will stall out in the middle of the country next week.  This front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms.  Timing the rain will be tricky, at best.  Any left-over thunderstorm boundaries

You can expect daily high temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.  Overnight lows near 70 degrees.  This weather will last well into next week.

Today’s temperature forecast at 1 PM (temps will vary)

Dew points will make it feel sticky outside.

Dew points are a measure of moisture in the air.  The higher the dew point the stickier it feels.

We will have daily thunderstorm chances.  The greatest coverage will be during the afternoon hours.  Heat of the day thunderstorms.

We will have some weak disturbances that will push through the region over the weekend.  Each of these could produce a bit more coverage in precipitation.  Confidence in timing, however, is rather low.

Model guidance is of little use in this type of pattern.

Occasionally, we may have thunderstorm complexes form.  These complexes are called MCS’s.  MCS’s can produce greater rain coverage and intensity.  I will be monitoring for these.

The Storm Prediction Center is also watching for the potential of MCS’s.  They have outlined our area in a marginal (level one out of five) risk both Saturday and Sunday.  That just means a couple of storms could become severe.

Here is the NAM 3K future-cast radar.  Notice how it centers on late Saturday night into Sunday morning for a complex of storms moving in from the northwest.

Timestamp upper left

For now, don’t cancel any weekend plans.  Monitor radars.  A few storms will likely dot radar over the coming days.  Storms that form will produce torrential downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and even small hail.  Typical summer storms.

I can’t rule out isolated downburst winds, as well.  Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

Example of downburst winds

From a distance, downburst winds may look like this.  This is called a rain foot.  It can contain high winds.

Lightning safety.

Storms over the coming days will likely be prolific lightning producers.

Do you know the symptoms of heat related illness?

Also, don’t forget our outdoor friends.

The preliminary July Outlook

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