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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Tuesday Night – Clearing. Nice temperatures. Less humid. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north/northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Patchy morning fog possible. Partly to mostly sunny. A few clouds possible. Low humidity. Nice day.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:22 p.m. Waxing crescent
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Nice. Pleasant outdoor weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds north or variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 83-86 degree range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Isolated chance for wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. A bit more humid, as well.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Heat index should rise well into the 90s.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-95 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it might be hot.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index should reach into the 90’s to perhaps 100 degrees. A stray thunderstorm could produce wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:09 a.m. Waxing crescent
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Muggy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range. Heat index into the 90s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:40 a.m. Waxing crescent
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:02 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:10 a.m. Waxing crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8. High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing crescent
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Nice weather for Wednesday into Thursday
- Mini-heat wave this weekend
- Thunderstorm chances?
Some strong thunderstorms rolled through the area on Monday night. Some of the storms produced 40-50 mph winds. Several reports of tree limbs down across parts of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Although storms were in the forecast, the intensity was a bit surprising.
We will have dry weather Tuesday night into Thursday. Pleasant dew points, as well. That means less humid air. I think we can live with that!
The weather pattern shifts quickly as we move into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build into our region from the south. A ridge of high pressure during the summer months typically means hot and humid. And, that will be the case this time around.
As the warmer weather pushes into the region we can expect a few thunderstorm to pop up on Thursday afternoon and night. Most areas will remain dry. But, I can’t completely rule out a few stray thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances at any give location will be around 20%.
Hot weather develops by Friday. This hot weather will last into at least Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Expect widespread 90’s on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Dew points will be on the rise, as well. That means increasing mugginess. Heat index values this week could range from 96-102 degrees. Not all that pleasant, unless you like summer heat. Which, some of you do!
Here are the GFS heat index values for Saturday and Sunday. There is some question on cloud cover for Sunday. If maximum sunshine is reached then heat index values will range from 96-102 degrees.
Click image to make it larger. Image is a little hard to read. The colors represent heat index values. You can see the numbers in black. This is for Saturday afternoon. Notice the very high values near St Louis. Again, these are heat index values (not temperatures). Heat index is what it would feel like outside.
Here is the Sunday map. This is from the GFS guidance. You can see low values over our northeast counties. That is because the GFS pops some storms and clouds on Sunday.
A cold front will push into our region by Sunday night into Tuesday. This front will approach from the north. Showers and storms will form along the front. I will have at least a chance for a few storms in the forecast from Sunday night into early next week.
The best chance of thunderstorms should be on Tuesday or Tuesday night. That is when the front should be in our region. At least that is the forecast.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday-Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance for a thunderstorm on Thursday night and Friday.
Next Saturday-Sunday: Should be dry
Sunday night into Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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No major concerns through Thursday. Heat wave this weekend could cause heat index values from 96-102.
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No
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
