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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Just a few clouds around. Cool. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 5-10 mph early and then 3-6 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 8:12 pm.
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Monday. – Mostly sunny sky conditions during the morning. Perhaps some afternoon puffy clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm towards evening over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Isolated
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: West and southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:46 p.m.
Monday Night – Increasing clouds from the north. Less humid. Perhaps a few showers or thunderstorms over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning. Mostly over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated to scattered over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday. A few morning clouds. Then, sunshine. Only a 10% chance for precipitation Tuesday morning over northwest Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring a storm system to our north.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-18-16 mph and gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:13 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 p.m.
Tuesday Night – Clearing. Nice.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north/northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday. – Mostly sunny. Afternoon cumulus clouds.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Northeast winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday. – A mix of sun and clouds. More humid. Small chance for a thunderstorm over southern Illinois and northern Kentucky.
What impact is expected? None to isolated
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Small risk for a thunderstorm over southern Illinois and northern Kentucky.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday. – A mix of sun and clouds. Very warm. Humid. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring for slight thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range (assuming we do not have a lot of clouds). Temperatures could rise into the lower 90s with plenty of sunshine.
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday. – Partly cloudy. Hot and humid.
What impact is expected? Heat index could be in the 90s.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it might be hot.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday. – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times. How and humid.
What impact is expected? Heat index may reach into the 90s
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Monday. – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday. – Partly sunny. Warm. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Dry weather in the charts
- Wet weather returns to the charts
- Short update
Short update, today. I am going to spend most of the day with friends! A nice little break on a decent day of weather. Weather never stops. Thankfully, it does allow breaks!!!
The good news is that there is going to be a spell of dry weather. I am watching two disturbances. One of those disturbances arrives on Monday night and Tuesday and another on Thursday night/Friday. There should not be a lot of moisture for these system to work with. A few showers or thunderstorms could occur as the Monday night disturbance pushes south and east. Perhaps the best chance would be over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
We may be looking at a heat wave late this week into the weekend for the Central United States. Some of the guidance is showing widespread 90s.
The long range charts indicate that we may enter a period of wet weather as early as next weekend. That would continue into the following week. Heavy rain is possible. Lower confidence in the long range forecast. I need to continue to monitor several more days of data. But, there is the chance that MCS’s could become an issue. It is that time of the year. MCS’s are large thunderstorm clusters. They typically move into our region during the months of June and July. They can produce heavy rain and even severe weather. Again, too far out to know for sure. The pattern, however, would favor MCS’s.
We do not need more rain.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday night: Perhaps a thunderstorm. Non-severe.
Tuesday-Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday-Tuesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Low confidence.
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I did increase rain chances slightly. That would be for Monday night.
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None
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No
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Mostly dry weather through the next few days. I am watching a small chance for showers/storms on Monday night/Tuesday. Otherwise, dry weather into at least Thursday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
