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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
The rest of today and tonight – Mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms around. Heavy downpours underneath thunderstorm cells. Gusty winds, as well. Cloud to ground lightning. Lows tonight will be around 68-72 degrees. Light winds.
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. A 10% chance for an afternoon storm. Highs in the 80’s. Winds will be light.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay
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Saturday night – Mostly clear…perhaps a few clouds. Mild. Lows around 70 degrees. Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunday – A few cumulus clouds around. Very warm. Highs well into the 80’s with south and southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunday night – Increasing clouds with a chance for overnight thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning possible. Should be late when the storms move in. Lows near 70 degrees. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I think you will be okay. Storm chances increase late Sunday night.
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms possible. Storms could produce heavy downpours and frequent lightning. Highs in the lower 80’s.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Yes. There could be storms to deal with. Have a plan B.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A warm weekend with just isolated storm chances Saturday and Sunday (other than the storms on Friday night)
2. How warm will temperatures rise on Sunday with some sunshine? Almost hot? I reserve the word hot for 90 and above
3. Cold front late Sunday night and Monday brings with it some thunderstorms
The weekend is upon us and we will have some small chances for thunderstorms. I have placed the risk for a thunderstorm at 10% for Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps the best chance along the KY/TN border and the Missouri Bootheel.
Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to middle 80’s. Temperatures will peak if we can maximize our sunshine. We will see how that goes.
Sunday will be the warmest day with highs well into the 80’s. We may experience gusty winds on Sunday, as well. Winds on Sunday will be from the southwest.
A cold front approaches Sunday night and Monday. That will increase storm chances again.
So far the Month of June has been cooler than normal. Let’s look at the anomalies. Weatherbell.com graphics
You can see the large chunk of below normal temperatures (blue and green) over the central United States.
Pulling out even more, let’s look at the last 14 days of temperature anomalies. Remember my forecast is for below normal temperatures for most of the summer and above normal precipitation. Our eastern counties may stand the best chance of above normal temperatures…if the southeast heat ridge builds back in.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Cold front early next week
2. Models disagree on moving the front through the area or stalling it out
3. How about a look into the fall and winter ahead? All in fun.
The main concerns for next week will be an approaching cold front on Sunday night and Monday. I have been talking about this cold front for most of the past week.
The front will approach from the north on Sunday night and Monday morning and then slowly sag southward through our region. Showers and storms will accompany the front. Some of the storms could be on the heavy side. Severe weather risk looks small, for now.
The models are in dispute about what happens on Monday night and Tuesday. Some of the data hangs the front up over our region. This keeps thunderstorm chances going right on through Tuesday and Wednesday. Other data sweeps the front through the region and clears out the storm chances.
This will need to be monitored.
For now we stand a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night into at least Monday. Lightning and locally heavy rain are the main concern. Although our northern counties will need to be monitored for strong winds with some of the storms late on Sunday.
Down the road…I am watching moisture from the hurricane coming up through the Baja of California and tropical development expected in the Gulf of Mexico later next week. Low confidence on where the moisture from these systems will train. Monitor updates.
I am watching a cold front for next Friday or Saturday. Some indications of stronger weather possible with this system. Long way off.
Here is the depiction of that storm on the GFS model. IF this is correct then an area of severe weather would be possible somewhere in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Again, long way off.
Look at the high PWAT values ahead of that storm and how it sweeps the moisture eastward as the cold front barrels through the region.
Saturday evening PWAT values (moisture). Moisture pooling ahead of the cold front.
Then on Sunday morning. The high moisture values have been swept eastward. Look down in the Gulf of Mexico, as well. Possible tropical system?
I thought this was a funny article on the discussion of summer popup thunderstorms. Will it or won’t it rain on my parade! Story here
Of course, I always enjoy your questions. So, feel free to ask away over on my weather Facebook page (found under Beau Dodson Weather)
Looking at one of the long range models for the summer. It agrees with my idea of a cooler than normal summer. We will see how it goes!
The blue area represents below normal temperatures.
One of the long range models is showing the our region borders are above and below normal temperatures this fall. Also indications of below normal precipitation during the fall.
The same model shows a very cold winter for our region. All in fun this far out.
The blue indicates a very cold winter for much of the United States.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major concerns. If a thunderstorm pops up then lightning and a heavy downpour will be the main concern. Perhaps some gusty winds.
Other than ongoing storms on Friday afternoon and night…I don’t believe you will need to take action on Saturday or Sunday. There could be some storms remaining on Saturday morning. If so then lightning is the main concern and a heavy downpour.
The next good chance for storms will arrive late Sunday night into Monday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Will there be a few thunderstorms over the weekend? At least a 10%-20% chance for Saturday and Sunday. I would not cancel or change any plans. Perhaps a few popup storms along some old outflow boundaries.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. A few storms can’t be ruled out over the weekend. The best chance is Friday night and early Saturday morning. Lesser chances Saturday and Sunday. Chances ramp up late Sunday night into Monday.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Small chance for a thunderstorm
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Small chance for thunderstorms (better chance Sunday night into Monday)
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals on Saturday and Sunday will be scattered, at best. Perhaps a bit more storm coverage Friday night and early Saturday morning. Another round Sunday night.
The Sunday night into Monday round could produce widespread 0.20″-0.50″ of rainfall. Locally heavier.
If the front stalls out in our region then scattered heavier rains can be expected next week. Whether it stalls or not is highly questionable.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
