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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
June 5th through June 11th
Current risk: NO.
Current confidence level: High.
Comments: Tornadoes are not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A chance of lightning Saturday night into at least Wednesday night. I will monitor next Thursday through Saturday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. NOT AT THIS TIME. Keep in mind that late spring and summer thunderstorms can always produce isolated downburst winds as they collapse.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? POSSIBLE. Some data shows upper 80s to around 90 tomorrow and next Wednesday. Thursday, as well. Thursday may deliver the highest chance of 90 degrees or warmer.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Next Thursday could deliver the first 100-degree heat index values of the year. I will need to monitor cloud cover. That could keep temperatures lower. Remember, the heat index is what your body feels. It is more important than the actual air temperature.
Your body responds to the heat index.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
School is out for the summer.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Forecast discussion
- It will be warm today. Warmer Saturday into early next week.
- Muggy weather is likely late this weekend into next week. Dew points will increase into the sweaty 70s.
- Saturday is trending dry. Perhaps a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Those chances will increase on Saturday night and Sunday. Then, continue into next week.
- The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases to higher numbers on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
No weather concerns. Warm today. Mild tonight. Dry conditions.
Saturday will be quite warm and humid. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night.
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Live Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Here are the early morning conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Let me show you the forecasted dew points. It is about to get humid again.
Dew points are what make it feel humid.
Here are today’s dew points. Nice for early June.
Notice they increase significantly over the weekend. Muggy weather returns.
Double-click on the image to enlarge it
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Now, look at Saturday’s dew points. Muggier air returns.
Dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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Sunday dew points. Low to mid 70s. Air you wear, as Jim Rasor used to say.
In addition to it being muggy, PWAT values will also increase.
PWAT values indicate how much moisture is in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into.
The higher the numbers, the more likely for locally heavy rain.
Those purple and pink colors are a lot of moisture. This is for Saturday through Tuesday.
The longer those colors linger over your area, the higher the chance of heavy downpours. These are summer-type PWAT values.
Double-click on the animation to enlarge it
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Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps for Friday through next Friday.
The totals have increased.
Locally higher totals are always possible in slow-moving thunderstorms. We saw that earlier this week with a large range of rain totals. Less than 0.50″ to over 5.00″.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
* Note: Slow-moving storms can also produce locally higher amounts.
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Our stretch of comfortable weather is coming to an end.
Temperatures and humidity will gradually increase today and Saturday as a weather system approaches from the southwest. Most areas should stay dry, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Saturday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures:
- Today: Mid to upper 80s
- Saturday: Upper 80s to near 90 degrees
Humidity (dew points) will also begin increasing over the weekend, making it feel warmer and stickier.
Sunday Through Tuesday: Wetter and More Humid
A much more humid weather pattern is expected from Sunday through at least Tuesday. Dew points will pop into the seventies. Muggy summer-like air.
A slow-moving weather system and cold front will bring deep Gulf moisture into the region, leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. That will be from Sunday into a good portion of next week.
Rain chances:
- Sunday through Tuesday: 50-80% each day
It will feel very muggy, with tropical-like humidity levels.
Because of the clouds and rain, temperatures will be slightly cooler:
- Highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s
Rainfall could add up over several days:
- 50-70% chance of at least 1 inch of rain by Wednesday morning
- 20-40% chance of 2 inches or more
Mid to Late Next Week
Rain chances begin to decrease on Wednesday and should continue to decline into Thursday as high pressure builds back into the region.
However, the humidity is expected to stick around.
Thursday Outlook:
- Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
- Dew points in the lower to middle 70s
- Heat index values could approach or exceed 100 degrees
Bottom Line
☀️ Today-Saturday: Mostly dry, warmer, and gradually more humid.
⛈️ Sunday-Tuesday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible.
🌧️ Rainfall: 1-2+ inches possible in some locations.
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Here is the lightning data from the EC model.
As you can see, several rounds of thunderstorms are likely this weekend into next week.
Right now, the threat of severe weather appears low. Perhaps a few storms with downburst winds. Strong winds.
This shows Saturday through Wednesday.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
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What is a downburst (microburst)?
These tend to be small in coverage. From a block to a few blocks wide and long.
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Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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