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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
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Thursday – Some increase in clouds. A 30% chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorms…especially over northwest counties. Warm with highs in the 80’s. East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates and radars. Some storms are forecast today over our northwest counties, at least.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and mild with temperatures in the lower 60’s. Light winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny and mild. Temperatures in the 80’s with light winds.
Thursday night – Increasing clouds with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm…mainly western and northern counties. Lows in the 60’s with light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Friday – Partly sunny and warmer. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm moving in from the north/northwest. A bit more humid. Highs will be in the middle to perhaps upper 80’s (depending on cloud cover). Chance for precipitation at any given spot will be 30% (this might need to be adjusted, monitor updates). Southerly winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor updates. We may have some precipitation in the region
Friday Night – A good chance for thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Light and variable winds.
Saturday – A chance for morning storms and then a chance for afternoon storms. Morning chances will be around 40%-60% and afternoon chances will be in the 30%-40% range.
Weekend: A series of disturbances will move into the region over the weekend into early next week. This may spark some showers and thunderstorms. Good chance for showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Friday night. Again on Sunday afternoon and night. Watching Saturday…some disagreement on precipitation timing or whether we will remain dry on Saturday. Lower than normal confidence until I can pin down the timing of the disturbances moving in from the northwest. Highs will be in the 80’s over the weekend.
Chances on Sunday will likely be in the 30%-40% range (Sunday and Sunday night).
Lot of uncertainty on timing and coverage of precipitation.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday will bring another nice day, temperature wise. A little warmer.
2. Thunderstorm chances increase from the north and northwest…especially by Friday night
3. Uncertainty surrounds the Saturday into Sunday afternoon forecast
4. Unsettled late weekend into the middle of next week
Previous update below…
Bottom line…right off the bat I can tell you that confidence is lower than normal on eventual precipitation probabilities from Thursday night into Sunday/Monday. A series of weak disturbances will push in from the west/northwest. Each one could spark some storms. Monitor updates if you have outdoor concerns.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a straight forward precipitation forecast? The good ‘ole days of a cold front passing through the region with one round of showers and storms. Then it exits and we clear out.
Well, that is not how spring and summer typically work in our region. What normally happens is that we end up with weak disturbances that move in from the west/northwest and trigger precipitation. Not a clean cold front. No clear cut time period when it might rain.
A forecasters headache.
Here is a 500 mb map showing you the puzzle pieces. A ridge of high pressure (good weather) nudges in from the southwest. I drew a solid red line to outline the ridge. The jet stream is WAY to our north. I circle in yellow the little disturbances that move along the “ring of fire” – the ridge of high pressure. These disturbances will happen all summer long. They occur along the edge of the ridge of high pressure. When the ridge nudges into our region we have decent weather. When the ridge backs away a bit then we start to see the disturbances bring rain to our region.
Zooming in on a disturbance on Friday night. See the yellow over southeast Missouri? That is one disturbance.
That is what the pattern will bring to our region over the coming week or two. There will be a very fine balance between a ridge of high pressure to our south and disturbances moving up and around the ridge of high pressure. The EXACT location of each feature is key to our sensible weather.
The first in a series of disturbances advanced in Missouri today (Wednesday). It sparked heavy showers and thunderstorms over Nebraska overnight and then tracked into Iowa and Missouri. It weakened along the way and dissipated over Missouri. It did leave behind clouds.
Here is what the complex of thunderstorms looked like on satellite Wednesday morning. Those bright clouds are tall thunderstorms. Cold cloud tops. The reds are the coldest cloud tops. The colder the cloud tops…the higher they are in the atmosphere. Cold cumulus cloud tops usually mean heavy thunderstorms. This complex moved across the Northern Plains and into the Missouri Valley on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These overnight thunderstorms are fueled by the low level jet stream (which kicks up at night)
The next in the series will advance into Missouri on Thursday and Thursday night. Right now it appears we will remain mostly dry from that event over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. But, some showers and storms should survive into our northwest counties. That would include parts of southeast Missouri and northwest parts of southern Illinois.
For now I will place the % chance in the 20%-30% range for parts of southeast Missouri and perhaps northwest parts of southwest Illinois. That would mean towards Randolph County, Illinois.
The next in the series will approach on Friday and Friday night. Timing has been slowed on the models for this next disturbance. But, confidence is lower than normal on timing and coverage of precipitation.
One complex of thunderstorms will form late Thursday night into Friday morning. This complex will be situated over Missouri and will move southeast. Again, whether it can survive into our local area is still in question. Keep checking back for updates if you have outdoor concerns.
Let’s look at those complexes on future-cast satellite view. These large thunderstorm complexes form at night then move east/southeast.
Thursday mornings complex. This will push south and east into Missouri. It might bring some thunderstorms or showers to our far far northwest counties on Thursday.
Now let’s look at the Friday morning complex. Notice how they keep forming over the same areas.
That one will die out over Missouri and Illinois late Friday morning. It will leave a boundary where new storms should spark in the afternoon and evening. This is when our region might get in on the action.
Future-cast satellite for early Friday evening. These are cold cloud tops. The bright red. Thunderstorms.
There will be some showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday afternoon or Friday night and then into Saturday morning as another complex of thunderstorms forms.
Additional weak disturbances move through our region on Saturday into Wednesday of next week. Timing the precipitation chances and giving you a % number for precipitation chances will be a challenge.
The EC model stalls out a weak cold front in our region Sunday night into the middle of next week. If that happens then precipitation chances will be with us during that time period. The GFS model, however, does not bring the cold front into the region until Tuesday or so.
A lot of questions remain on the forecast over the coming 7 days. Lower than normal confidence in each time period.
Any storms that form in this type of environment could produce heavy downpours. Severe weather risk, for now, appears low. This will need to be monitored, as always.
Best advice is to keep checking the top of the page forecast for changes in precipitation coverage and % numbers for that precipitation. A lot of this will come down to 6-12 hours before each wave arrives. Some chances in the forecast are likely.
Thursday High Temperatures
Friday High Temperatures
Saturday High Temperatures
Sunday High Temperatures (reaching the higher numbers will be HIGHLY dependent on cloud cover). Low confidence we reach the upper 80’s.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Unsettled next week
The key to next weeks forecast is the placement of a cold front. This front should move into our region Sunday into Tuesday. Differences on the models means lower than normal confidence on timing. If the front stalls in our region then thunderstorms chances will increase (and locally heavy rain is a good bet)
Monitor updates as we move forward.
June is known for heavy rain. Stalled fronts can mean trouble for flash flooding. This will need to be monitored as we move forward. Hopefully the front won’t stall out.
On another note…
This is very unusual to have two powerful hurricanes in early June in the eastern Pacific.
It is a beast. This hurricane may move northward and eventually bring moisture in the southwest U.S. or eastward. It will need to be monitored.
Here is the current track forecast
Check out the very high PWAT values moving into the Baja of California. If this moves into the United States then someone could see some heavy rain. Long shot right now. I circled the high PWAT values in red. Look way way southwest.
And, how about a weather photograph from Wunderground
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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No major concerns on Thursday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card will be precipitation chances starting Thursday night and lasting into the weekend. Struggling with what % numbers to place on the chances.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Thursday and Friday. Mostly for western and northern counties. Very low confidence on timing of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Rainfall totals will be dependent on the placement of upper level disturbances moving through our region over the coming 7 days. Heavy rain can’t be ruled out from thunderstorm complexes.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
