June 30, 2019: Subscribers update. Your password to the blog is not the same as your www.weathertalk.com password. Email me if you need help beaudodson@usawx.com

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Sunday: Monitor updates late in the day into this evening. Especially our northern counties (see graphic below). Some storms are possible. Elsewhere, the heat of the day storms will dot radar late this afternoon. Most will remain dry. Some will pick up heavy rain and gusty winds. Typical summer type storms. Heat index above 100.
Monday: No concerns for most. Most will remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.
Tuesday: Widely scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.
Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.
Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.

Hot and muggy weather.
I am monitoring the potential of more active weather towards the middle of next week into the following.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Sunday through Tuesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Late this afternoon and mainly this evening/tonight (Sunday). A few severe storms are possible over our northern counties. See graphic below. Otherwise, severe weather is unlikely Monday and Tuesday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Storms will produce very heavy rain (where they occur). If the line of storms holds together this afternoon and tonight then some flash flooding would likely occur. For now, confidnece in that happening is low. I am not concerned about Monday or Tuesday as to flash flooding.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Values of 96 to 102 on Sunday through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorm chances will increase towards the middle/end of the week.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few intense storms are possible.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Storms will have plenty of moisture to tap into. Some flash flooding is possible.
Will the heat index rise at or above 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values of 96 to 102 on Wednesday and then perhaps lower because of some clouds Thursday and Friday.

Click here

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Added thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon and tonight.

Increased the percentage probabilities.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

How far south this complex of storms travels late this afternoon and tonight (Sunday)

Area of current concern. Yellow zone. Late this afternoon into this evening. The main concern is from 4 PM through 10 PM.

A low confidence forecast as to how long the system can survive. It should be weakening as it hits our region.

Severe storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor app messages today.

June 30, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cumulus clouds forming in the heat of the day. It will be hot and muggy. A chance of spotty thunderstorms mainly after 12 pm. Our far northern counties will need to monitor the line of storms that will approach from the north after 4 PM. Locally intense storms if that holds together. Mainly our northern counties. See graphic above.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium 40% (confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 20% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty heat of the day storms. I will monitor an MCS that will approach late this afternoon from the north. Our northern counties may have a higher chance of storms after 4 pm into tonight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Heavy rain. Strong and gusty winds. Small hail (although larger hail is possible over our northern counties if the line of storms holds together late today)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No,, but monitor app messages and radars.
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cloudy in the yellow zone. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the yellow zone. Elsewhere, isolated heat of the day storms will dissipate.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 70% in the yellow zone and 30% elsewhere. Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty heat of the day storms will die off during the evening. I will monitor an MCS that will approach late this afternoon from the north. Our northern counties may have a higher chance of storms after 4 pm into tonight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Heavy rain. Strong and gusty winds. Small hail (although larger hail is possible over our northern counties if the line of storms holds together late today)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor app messages and radars. That is especially true in the yellow zone above.
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:18 PM

Monday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. 10% day and night.   High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms. 30% day and night.   High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm and humid. 30% to 30% night.   High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday and Sunday night: A complex of thunderstorms (MCS) will move into the region late this afternoon and tonight. The main concern is from 4 PM through 10 PM. If the system holds together then our far northern counties (see graphic below) could have some severe thunderstorms.

Overall confidence is rather low as to how far south this line of storms will track. Monitor the apps today.

Otherwise, typical summer pop-up storms elsewhere. Those storms will produce gully washers in small areas. Lightning. Gusty winds. Pea size hail.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Warm and muggy this coming week.
Storm chances increase mid to late week. A lot of moisture. Locally heavy storms.

Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

Monitor thunderstorms chances our over northern counties late today/tonight. The main concern is from 4 PM through 10 PM.

That would include areas from Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, and White. Northward from there.

One row of counties south of there should also monitor. The chances decrease as you travel south (as far as the squall line).

Elsewhere, isolated heat of the day storms could produce heavy rain and lightning. Typical, summer storms.

Remember, lightning is one of the top weather killers. Head indoors when storms are nearby. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.

Weather:

I usually take the weekend off from the blog.

I needed to update today because we have a line of storms moving in from the north.

This morning the line is in Minnesota and Wisconsin. It should dive southward and may impact our northern counties. The main concern is from 4 PM through 10 PM.

LOW confidence as to how far south this system will track late this afternoon into tonight. It is forecast to rapidly fall apart as it moves into our region.

This is the MCS/thunderstorm complex as of 7 AM. Way north of our region. It is moving south.

Here it is on IR satellite.

The colors represent temperatures. Red colors are cold cloud tops. That would be thunderstorms. The pink area inside the red is the line of storms. Those clouds tops are the highest and coldest.

Cumulonimbus clouds.

Click to enlarge

It should be dying, but I don’t trust the models when it comes to these MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes.

We will have extreme instability this afternoon. There won’t be a lot of wind shear. That is good news. More wind shear would mean a greater severe threat.

There is a threat that some damaging wind gusts could occur over our northern counties.

The area in yellow is the area of most concern. Again, very low confidence in the intensity of the system as it moves into our local area.

Click to enlarge the image

It is forecast to rapidly fall apart. Monitor updates late today and tonight.

Elsewhere, a few pop-up summer storms will occur this afternoon. Typical for this time of the year.

They are rather random. They can produce lightning and heavy rain. When thunder roars you should head indoors.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
The time stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well.

The WRF model guidance. Future-cast radar.

Again, keep in mind that this is just one model. Models do NOT handle MCS’s all that great.

The system would likely arrive after 4 or 5 pm. That is if it survives this far south.

The main concern is from 4 PM through 10 PM.

Otherwise, a few heat of the day storms are possible.

And the NAM3K Model

Not too far off from each other.

The key is that it does weaken.

With that said, monitor the severe weather risk over our northern counties.

.These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

There may be a video today from the video team. If so, I will post it here.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Video returns on Monday

Long Range Video.

Video returns on Monday

The Missouri Valley

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Key Points:

24 hour observed rainfall: Especially noted across the northern Plains to the northern half of Iowa and Ohio with scattered 0.5-1.5″. Localized flash flooding continues across SE MN and central WI this AM.
Still eyeing at least one more MCS (storm cluster) threat across the Midwest into tonight before a rather quiet weekend ensues across the Grain Belt. Correlated at a long distance with our SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) rise in mid-June, which supports a short period of “warmer and drier” for 2-3 days.
We still think overall over the next 5-7 days, especially Kansas, southern Nebraska, Missouri and the southern half of the Ohio Valley into the Missouri / Tennessee Valley areas run below normal in rainfall.
Growing degree days over the next week will remain above to much above normal across the entire Grain Belt in the central US.
Both GEFS and EPS model solutions got both colder and wetter in the central US again into week 2, a trend we definitely think continues as we approach the 2nd and 3rd full weeks of July. We expect the Southeast Ridge to expand here as well, running troughs into it, increasing our “excessive” rainfall risks by and large

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers June 28th through July 4th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers July 5th through July 11th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 2.00″
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This outlook covers July 12th through July 25th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Euro is a model.

Blue is below normal temps. Yellow/orange are above normal temps.

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June temperature outlook

June precipitation outlook

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July temperature outlook

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July precipitation outlook

August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 699
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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a physical scientist who works for the National Weather Service. She works with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which is a specialized UN agency. Born and raised from Jamaica, she experienced Hurricane Gilbert at a young age and has been fascinated with weather ever since. She earned her undergraduate degree in Meteorology from Iowa State University and a Master’s degree in Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Dr. Shanna Pitter, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Satellite frequencies
- Dallas/Fort Worth severe weather incident
- Does the general public pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings?
- “Code Red” broadcast meteorologist controversy
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!