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Friday: No concerns for most. Most will remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning.
Saturday: No concerns for most. Most will remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning.
Sunday: No concerns for most. Most will remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.
Monday: No concerns for most. Most will remain dry. Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning. Heat index above 100.
Tuesday: Widely scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.
Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.
Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds.

A drier pattern will establish itself today into at least Monday with only small storm chances.
I am monitoring the potential of more active weather towards the middle of next week into the following.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Friday through Sunday

Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Values of 92 to 96 this afternoon. Values of 95 to 100 on both Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Thursday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated chance on Monday. Slightly higher chances on Tuesday. Monitor Wednesday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time, but monitor the middle of next week. Keep in mind, however, that thunderstorms this time of the year can produce isolated high wind.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Mostly in the upper 90s on Monday and the middle/upper 90s on Tuesday.

Click here

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No significant changes.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

Monitor next weeks forecast. Rain probabilities are in question.

June 28, 2019
** It is difficult during the summer months to not have a slight chance of thunderstorms. Keep that in mind **
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm and muggy. An upper level low in the region could pop a couple of thunderstorms. Best chance would be over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Even there the chance is rather small.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 93° to 96°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 20% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated lightning and isolated wet roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear with just a few clouds. Warm. Muggy. Patchy dense fog. An isolated evening thunderstorm. Most areas will remain dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 2:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 4:09 PM

June 29, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Quite warm and muggy. Most areas will be dry. An isolated thunderstorm is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated lightning and isolated wet roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few evening clouds. Warm. Muggy. Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 3:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 5:13 PM

June 30, 2019.
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Most areas will be dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated lightning and isolated wet roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10 to 11 very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy. Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Visibility will be lower in areas with fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 3:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:18 PM

Monday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms. 10% day and night.   High ranging from 88 to 94 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.
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Tuesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms. 30% day and night.   High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.
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Wednesday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm and humid. 30% to 30% night.   High ranging from 84 to 88 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

Click to enlarge

Click the graphics to expand them.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday through Monday: Isolated thunderstorm chances into Monday. Any storms that form could produce frequent lightning and heavy rain. Most areas will remain dry. The threat of severe thunderstorms is small.

Tuesday through Friday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible. A more active thunderstorm pattern may redevelop towards the middle/end of next week although confidence in that is rather low. For now, the risk of severe weather appears limited. Monitor updated forecasts.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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July forecast.
A calmer weekend, for once.
Warm and humid.

Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

For once, it appears we are going to have a calm weekend. It has been awhile.

Only isolated thunderstorm chances. Lightning would be the concern.

Weather:

The July forecast has been posted.

Weekend:

Nothing dramatic in the weather department over the coming days.

Warm day and night temperatures. A bit muggy (typical summer weather). Only isolated thunderstorm chances into Sunday.

An upper-level low is still in our local area today. A few shower and thunderstorms will be possible but most of the area will remain dry. That is the good news.

Saturday and Sunday will deliver mostly sunny sky conditions with small chances of thunderstorms. Most will remain dry. Same for Monday.

There are questions concerning the pattern towards the middle and end of next week into the following two.

It appears that we could move back into a pattern that delivers more MCS’s. Thunderstorm complexes. If that does happen then heavy rain will return.

We have been in this pattern for months. We have two or three weeks of active weather and then a week of calm weather.

For now, the certainties are low. It is something that I will be monitoring.

Thunderstorm complexes in July can pack a punch when it comes to wind. Same for heavy rain and lightning. There is usually plenty of unstable air and moisture to work with.

For now, let’s enjoy the quieter weather. It is a treat.

Heat index values. What it feels like to your body.

Today

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
The time stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well.

The NAM 3K model

.These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Long Range Video.

The Missouri Valley

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Key Points:

24 hour observed rainfall: Especially noted across the northern Plains to the northern half of Iowa and Ohio with scattered 0.5-1.5″. Localized flash flooding continues across SE MN and central WI this AM.
Still eyeing at least one more MCS (storm cluster) threat across the Midwest into tonight before a rather quiet weekend ensues across the Grain Belt. Correlated at a long distance with our SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) rise in mid-June, which supports a short period of “warmer and drier” for 2-3 days.
We still think overall over the next 5-7 days, especially Kansas, southern Nebraska, Missouri and the southern half of the Ohio Valley into the Missouri / Tennessee Valley areas run below normal in rainfall.
Growing degree days over the next week will remain above to much above normal across the entire Grain Belt in the central US.
Both GEFS and EPS model solutions got both colder and wetter in the central US again into week 2, a trend we definitely think continues as we approach the 2nd and 3rd full weeks of July. We expect the Southeast Ridge to expand here as well, running troughs into it, increasing our “excessive” rainfall risks by and large

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers June 28th through July 4th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers July 5th through July 11th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 2.00″
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This outlook covers July 12th through July 25th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Euro is a model.

Blue is below normal temps. Yellow/orange are above normal temps.

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June temperature outlook

June precipitation outlook

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July temperature outlook

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July precipitation outlook

August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 699
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Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a physical scientist who works for the National Weather Service. She works with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which is a specialized UN agency. Born and raised from Jamaica, she experienced Hurricane Gilbert at a young age and has been fascinated with weather ever since. She earned her undergraduate degree in Meteorology from Iowa State University and a Master’s degree in Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Dr. Shanna Pitter, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Satellite frequencies
- Dallas/Fort Worth severe weather incident
- Does the general public pay attention to severe thunderstorm warnings?
- “Code Red” broadcast meteorologist controversy
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!