June 27, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Monitoring storm chances. Heat returns in a big way.

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Increasing clouds overnight. Thunderstorms developing. Some of the storms could be intense.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning, heavy rain, strong winds, and possibly hail. A few storms could be severe.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

June 28, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some clouds. Warm and humid. Morning thunderstorms possible. A few storms could be intense. A few afternoon storms are possible, as well.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous early in the day.
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Isolated storms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Monitor thunderstorm chances in case a few storms form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 8:45 PM Full
Moonset: 6:02 AM

June 29, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Hot and humid. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 93 to 96 KY ~ 93 to 96 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 9:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:51 AM

June 30, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Hot and muggy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 93 to 96 KY ~ 93 to 96 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:44 AM

July 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:47 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:38 AM

July 2, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:38 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. A few thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:20 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:19 AM

July 3, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. Heat index above 100 degrees. An isolated storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 95 IL ~ 92 to 95 KY ~ 92 to 95 TN ~ 92 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Mostly likely none
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:31 AM

July 4, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Muggy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:27 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form. Pockets of flash flooding possible.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

This is the seven day rainfall outlook.

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

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You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Storms that form will have quite a bit of energy to tap into. I can’t rule out additional reports of damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a few reports of hail will be possible. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Thursday through Monday. Isolated storms are possible Thursday into Saturday. Most of the area will remain dry. We could see an uptick of thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are downbursts?

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

Additional thunderstorm chances
Heat wave will make for some uncomfortable days ahead

Brief morning update.

Thunderstorms are again likely today. A few of the storms could produce damaging wind, nickel size hail, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning.

The tornado risk today is low, but not zero.

A few storms are again possible Thursday and Thursday night. Some guidance is showing another line of storms pushing through the region. Confidence on this idea is low.

Temperatures should rise into the 90’s Thursday afternoon. This will depend on cloud cover. Heat index values above 100 degrees.

Friday into Sunday will most likely only deliver isolated thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees.

A few more storms are possible Sunday afternoon and night vs Friday and Saturday. I will again be monitoring for MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that are common during the summer months. They can produce heavy rain and occasionally severe weather. Same as recent days.

MCS’s are notoriously difficult to forecast more than 24 hours in advance.

The main area of concern for today’s storms will be extreme southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is where the atmosphere is forecast to become the most unstable.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a good chunk of the region in a severe risk.

The light green represents where non-severe storms may occur. The dark green is where there is a level one out of five risk (one being the lowest). The yellow is a level two out of five risk.

This could move around a bit. SPC normally updates between 11 AM and 12 PM and then again twice in the afternoon.

You can read their full update here – click here

The models have done poorly lately in capturing the thunderstorm complexes.

Here is what the 3K NAM shows for today (again, models have not been all that helpful lately)

Timestamp upper left.

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

These graphics are for subscribers.