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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Brief update today. I am out of town.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A few scattered heavy thunderstorms likely.
What impact is expected? If a storm forms then wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable in direction at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps even numerous as a cold front moves into the region.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk at any given location. But, a few storms could produce high winds. Small hail, as well.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but glance at radars
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Monday – Partly sunny. Hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Perhaps not as hot as Sunday.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range with higher heat index values. If we have more clouds then that could shave a few degrees off the thermometer.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming north/northeast during the afternoon or evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous as a cold front nears the region.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Isolated severe weather is possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates. Some storms are possible along a cold front on Monday.
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High to very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:35 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:57 a.m. Last Quarter.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest/north/northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. Perhaps less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range. If the front is slower than anticipated then it could be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:04 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Low confidence on the Wednesday into Friday forecast. With northwest flow you often times will have at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the disturbances appear weak. Thus, low confidence on whether we have storms during this time period.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:50 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:11 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Mild. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the west/northwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: North and northeast winds at 7-14 mph. Winds becoming east/southeast.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. We might have some rain on Thursday or Thursday night.
Sunrise will be at 5:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:19 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Thursday Night – A few clouds. Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A thunderstorm again possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet raodways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 3:16 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:26 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:06 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:30 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 5 mph. Winds turning out of the south.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. A little warmer.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 5:01 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:31 p.m. Waning Crescent.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southerly at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night into Monday: Scattered thunderstorms from time to time. Not everyone will pick up measurable rain. And, some spots could pick up one to three inches. Summer storms. A few storms could produce frequent lightning, high winds, and small hail. Torrential downpours in slow moving storms. Small flash flood risk at any given spot. Keep in mind, storms during the summer can produce extremely heavy rain in short periods of time. Thus, isolated flash flooding is always a possibility.
Isolated severe thunderstorm warnings are possible in this environment. Severe storms would likely be short lived. And, the main concern would probably be down burst winds.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
