June 26, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot and muggy returns.

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June 26, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Humid. Thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 (pockets of higher if the clouds disperse) KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 7:04 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:33 AM

June 27, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index 96 to 102.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 7:57 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:15 AM

June 28, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A few thunderstorms possible. Hot and muggy. Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 95 KY ~ 92 to 95 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Isolated storms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 8:45 PM Full
Moonset: 6:02 AM

June 29, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Hot and humid. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 93 to 96 KY ~ 93 to 96 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 9:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:51 AM

June 30, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 93 to 96 KY ~ 93 to 96 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:44 AM

July 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. A few thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:44 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form. Pockets of flash flooding possible.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

Most of this falls over the next 48. Drier weather is likely WED/THU/FRI/SAT/SUN.

This is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 AM Friday

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday. Storms that form will have quite a bit of energy to tap into.

Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a few reports of hail will be possible. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

Thursday through Monday. Isolated storms are possible Thursday into Saturday. Most of the area will remain dry. We could see an uptick of thunderstorm chances Sunday and Monday. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are downbursts?

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

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Weather Headlines

Thunderstorm chances continue to be a weather story
Heat wave will make for some uncomfortable days ahead

The main weather story today will be thunderstorm chances.

We have a line of storms moving through the region this morning. This line has produced some high winds and hail.

This line of thunderstorms is going to leave a lot of cloud debris. This could impact the weather later today. Whether the atmosphere can recover or not is the question. Recover means to recharge. To build energy again.

If the atmosphere does recharge then additional strong thunderstorms will develop. Monitor updates.

Here is the Hrrr model. I don’t put a lot of stock into the models during these type of setups. It does show a few chances of showers and storms today into tonight.

Time-stamp upper left.

The Hrrr show CAPE rebuilding this afternoon. CAPE is a measure of energy. It can fuel thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances will continue on/off into Wednesday night. The changes will, however, be diminishing with time. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be today into tonight.

Thursday through Sunday will be hot and muggy. Highs will return to the 90’s. Heat index values will top 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. Low temperatures will remain in the 70’s. Summer weather.

The 10 day GFS temperature forecast screams SUMMER.

Click to enlarge

Hay Cutting forecast

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

These graphics are for subscribers.