June 25, 2018: Non-subscriber post. Hot and muggy weather.

Update

Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight. The main concern will be damaging wind, hail, and heavy rain. There is a low end tornado risk.

The greatest concern could be southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Guidance does show a chance of storms area-wide. Storms will produce very heavy rain. Last night three to six inches of rain fell over portions of the region. That could happen again tonight if thunderstorms train (move over the same area repeatedly).

I will be sending out app/text messages.

Here is what the Hrrr model is showing. One of many models. Time-stamp upper left.

Click to enlarge

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June 25, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:54 AM

June 26, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms again possible. Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94 IL ~ 88 to 94 KY ~ 88 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 7:04 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:33 AM

June 27, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Heat index 96 to 102.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 95 KY ~ 92 to 95 TN ~ 92 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values could cause problems for young children, senior citizens, and those working outside. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 7:57 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:15 AM

June 28, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Heat index above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95 IL ~ 90 to 95 KY ~ 90 to 95 TN ~ 90 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:36 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19PM
Moonrise: 8:45 PM Full
Moonset: 6:02 AM

June 29, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Heat index above 100.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Southwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 9:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:51 AM

June 30, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and hot. Humid. Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 Very high
Sunrise: 5:37 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 10:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:44 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

We are going to return to a hot and muggy pattern.

We will have to monitor thunderstorm complexes and heat of the day storms.

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Heavy rain will occur where thunderstorms form. Pockets of flash flooding possible.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

Most of this falls over the next 48. Drier weather is likely WED/THU/FRI/SAT/SUN.

This is the seven day precipitation rainfall map.

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast

Click images to enlarge

The NAM model

This next graphic is the GFS

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Monday through Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days. Storms that form will have quite a bit of energy to tap into.

Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a few reports of hail will be possible. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

There will also be a risk of downburst winds. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are downbursts?

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The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

Thunderstorm chances over the coming days.
A few strong/severe storms possible.
Hot and muggy weather returns.

It was a busy weekend of weather for the region. We had a number of thunderstorms and even some severe weather reports.

Massac County reported trees down from Saturday’s storms and power outages from Sunday’s storms.

Anywhere from one to six inches of rain fell last night across portions of southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

Here are some radar estimated rain totals.

Click map to enlarge

It appears we may not be finished with storms this week. We will need to monitor for MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are common during the summer months.

I am keeping an eye on tonight’s weather for severe storms. Another disturbance will push into the region. We should have quite a bit of unstable air. I will keep an eye on it and update as necessary.

Otherwise, we are facing a week of hot and muggy weather. Temperatures are going to bounce back into the 90’s over the coming days with heat index values of 100+. High dew points will mean muggy weather. Humid weather. Summer weather.

Typical heat of the day thunderstorms could occur. Any storms that form in the heat of the day could be locally heavy. Lightning will be the main concern for outdoor activities and isolated downburst winds.

Hay Cutting forecast

The preliminary July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos. They have a great team of meteorologists. The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

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Illinois/Ohio Valley

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Missouri Valley and Central Plains

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Long Range

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

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This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

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And precipitation

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June temperature and precipitation outlook

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Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

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Precipitation outlook for March through May.

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

WeatherBrains Episode 648

Today’s WeatherBrain is Steven Zubrick, the Science and Operations Officer at National Weather Service in Sterling, VA. Steve has previously appeared on WeatherBrains; welcome back to the show! Also, joining us as Guest Panelist is Tanja Fransen, Meteorologist In Charge of the National Weather Service in Glasgow MT.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: