Friday, June 23, 2017:
Fairly straight forward forecast for today.
Storm tracking links and other information will be posted below. I just posted the new long range forecast on the Weather Talk page (for subscribers). GREAT video today by one of the long range meteorologists that is helping out. He goes into details for the rest of June and July. You can view that over on the www.weathertalk.com website. If you have not subscribed, you can do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The long range link today is on the Severe Weather Outlook and/or Live Feed links. Here is the direct link https://weathertalk.com/app/dailysummary
Confidence remains LOW on the rain totals forecast.
Confidence is high for widespread showers and thunderstorms today with locally heavy rain.
There is a chance that a few spots could pick up enough rain to cause flash flooding.
There is a small risk for tornadoes as Cindy spins into our area. A non-zero risk. Tropical systems are notoriously difficult to forecast when it comes to both rain totals and isolated tornadoes. Again, the overall risk remains small, but not zero.
Forecast
Cindy is spinning through eastern Arkansas and it is moving north and northeast. The center will move into western Tennessee and possibly western Kentucky later today.
PWAT values (the amount of moisture in the entire atmosphere) are above 2″. Those are extreme numbers. That means rain rates could be high. Training storms would produce very heavy rainfall totals.
It is a tough forecast call as to how much rain will fall IF storms train. Confidence is low. Notice the IF.
If flooding does develop, over portions of the area, then please avoid flooded roadways. Don’t become “that guy” who has to be rescued by emergency services.
It happens a lot more than you think. 
stay safe!
We dry out for Saturday,. Sunday, and Monday. Nice weekend ahead. Small chance for a shower Saturday night and Sunday. I think most of us remain dry. Temperatures will be a bit cooler and it will be less humid.
Videos can be viewed at this link. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you can also click the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. That page holds links for several days.
I can text you the videos, as well. Make sure you have text option FOUR turned on. That would be the Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the text messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers. This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted. The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists. Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
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There is the potential for flash flooding tonight into Friday evening. It is not possible to determine who will end up with the heaviest rain totals. If you live in a flood prone area, then monitor updates.
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Monitor flash flood watches and warnings.
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Confidence in the forecast is low.
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June 22, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Showers and thunderstorms possible. There could be a dry slot on Thursday night. That would lessen rain chances. If showers and storms occur, they could produce heavy rain. Some of the guidance does show training thunderstorms tonight and on Friday morning. Keep this in mind. Training thunderstorms would produce very heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: S SE 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low to medium. Significant adjustments are possible..
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning heavy rain. Isolated high winds reports possible. A low end tornado risk.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Small risk for severe weather.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan in mind
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June 23, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce flash flooding. Not as warm, because of rain and clouds. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 84 IL 82 to 84 KY 82 to 84 TN 82 to 84
Winds: S and SW at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts. Winds will become north and northwest during the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding likely. Avoid flooded roadways. Isolated tornado risk possible. Isolated high wind reports possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few reports of high winds possible. Short lived tornadoes possible with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible, especially early. Locally heavy rain possible in the evening. A bit lower confidence on the timing of the rain ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 IL ~62 to 68 KY ~ 62 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: S SW at 6 to 12 mph becoming northwest with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Flash flooding is a concern.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then scattered. Some question on the timing of precipitation pushing further east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Rain is possible, especially in the evening.
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June 24, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely rain will have ended.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL 76 to 84 KY 76 to 84 TN 76 to 84
Winds: N NW at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should be over by Saturday
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: N NW 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 25, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: N NW at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for a shower
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Most likely dry. Some guidance pops a stray shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: N NW 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Late Sunday night perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated possible late Sunday night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 26, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Perhaps a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: N NW at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: N NW 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Thanks!
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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