Thursday update (previous update below this one)
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Confidence in the forecast is low to medium. A lot of questions remain about the placement of the heaviest rains. A lot of questions remain concerning totals.
Everyone has been given plenty of notice that some heavy rain is possible over the next 36 hours. There is also a low end risk for short lived tornadoes (tropical systems cause this to happen).
A heavy rain event is likely to unfold over the next 36 hours for portions of the region.
Tropical Storm Cindy has moved ashore on the Texas and Louisiana coast-line. The system is ragged, but producing significant rain amounts over a large area of the south-lands.
Rain will develop in our area this morning into the afternoon hours. A few lightning strikes will be possible. Rain will be moving south to north.
There is a chance that some of the showers and storms will be locally heavy today. If storms were to train over the same area then copious amounts of rain would fall.
There will be some shear it the atmosphere over the next 36 hours. There is a low end risk for short lived tornadoes. These tornadoes are fairly common with tropical systems. They typically only last a few minutes and many times, because of their fast and short develop, do not receive a warning. They can even occur without lightning present.
Perhaps the greatest risk for heavy rain will be on Friday morning into the afternoon. This is when Cindy will approach our region.
PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere) will be extremely high. Guidance is spitting out numbers in the 2.2 to 2.6″ rain (locally higher). Those are large numbers.
PWAT values help meteorologists determine how much rain could fall and how fast.
These numbers would support rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3″ an hour. If thunderstorms train on Friday, or heavier rain cells, then flash flooding would be possible.
It is impossible to tell you how much rain will fall at your location. I can tell you the greatest chance for significant totals will be from the Missouri Bootheel into extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
That does NOT mean flash flooding can’t occur elsewhere. It just means that is where the heaviest totals are likely to be.
As a matter of fact, some data shows heavy thunderstorms along the incoming cold front (moving in from the north) over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois late tonight/early Friday morning.
Widespread one to two inch rain totals are anticipated. Then, there could be pockets of two to four inches. Locally higher totals possible.
A flash flood watch has been issued for the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. The watch will run from this evening through Friday evening.
Additional flash flood watches are possible. Monitor updates.
Rain will end Friday night. Saturday into Monday should be mostly dry. There is a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday night and Sunday, but guidance has been trending drier. I did include small chances in the official forecast.
Cooler air arrives Friday night into Tuesday. Less humid, as well. Pleasant weather.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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Beau’s long range outlook video update by Meteorologist Michael Clark’s has been posted here for my subscribers
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
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A tropical system will move into portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday into the Friday evening. The track of this system is key to our weather forecast. Heavy rain will fall along its path. Numerous locations will receive 2 to 4 inches of rain with pockets of 4 to 6 inches of rain.
Monitor updated forecasts concerning this event. Flood or flash flood watches will be issued for some of our local counties.
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June 21, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Three detailed videos have been posted (Wednesday afternoon and night). Here is the link (for Weather Talk subscribers)
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
Forecast: An increase in clouds. Mild. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: S SE 3 to 6 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late tonight.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The greatest flash flood concerns should be over far southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky. and Tennessee. There are uncertainties about the placement of the heaviest rain bands.
Monitor flash flood watches.
June 22, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Breezy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain possible. There is a small risk for severe weather.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL 80 to 85 KY 82 to 86 TN 82 to 86
Winds: S and SE at 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Locally heavy rain could be an issue for some areas. Monitor the flash flood potential. There is a small risk for severe weather.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for high winds. Small tornado risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan in mind
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Showers and thunderstorms possible. There could be a dry slot on Thursday night. That would lessen rain chances. If showers and storms occur, they could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: S SE 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning heavy rain. Small risk for severe weather.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Small risk for severe weather.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan in mind
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June 23, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce flash flooding. Not as warm, because of rain and clouds. Humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 84 IL 82 to 84 KY 82 to 84 TN 82 to 84
Winds: S and SW at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts. Winds will become north and northwest during the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding likely. Avoid flooded roadways. Isolated tornado risk possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few reports of high winds possible. Short lived tornadoes possible with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible, especially early. Locally heavy rain possible in the evening. A bit lower confidence on the timing of the rain ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 IL ~62 to 68 KY ~ 62 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: S SW at 6 to 12 mph becoming northwest with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates concerning heavy rain.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then scattered. Some question on the timing of precipitation pushing further east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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June 24, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely rain will have ended.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL 76 to 84 KY 76 to 84 TN 76 to 84
Winds: N NW at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should be over by Saturday
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: N NW 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 25, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: N NW at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance for a shower
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Most likely dry. Some guidance pops a stray shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: N NW 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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June 26, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: N NW at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: N NW 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation: MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
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I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
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There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
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- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
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