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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. A shower or thunderstorm possible (especially before 11 pm). Storms that do occur could be heavy.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning. Strong winds near storms (mainly during the evening hours).
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A strong storm possible. A few storms could produce strong winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm possible. If a storm does form then it could be intense or severe. It will be hot. Dew points will be a little bit lower. It won’t be “as” humid/muggy.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-100 degree range
Winds: West/southwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? If a storm were to form it could be intense. Low confidence on storms forming. Storms that do form could produce damaging winds and small hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be quite hot. Use care, as always. Remember the outdoor pets.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – A few evening thunderstorms possible. If storms form they could be intense. Becoming mostly clear and warm. A little less humid, as well. Overall, a nice night.
What impact is expected? If storms form then heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail possible. Frequent lightning, as well.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? A few intense storms possible
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Plenty of sun. Very warm. Less humid. A nice day, overall. Good camping weather this weekend.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds may shift more out of the northeast as the day wears on.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Medium to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Nice evening. Nice camping weather. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Quite a bit of sunshine. A few spotty clouds. Not as humid. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast and east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Mild evening.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. A bit more humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. A bit more humid, as well.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. More humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 9:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:44 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 10:41 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:18 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:45 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
Friday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Hot Thursday
- Less humid Friday-Monday
- More humid by Monday
- Cold front next week?
Wednesday delivered more showers and thunderstorms to the region. As of this writing, there were several thunderstorm clusters on radar.
We had some wind damage on Wednesday. Wednesday was the day with the greatest risk for a few severe thunderstorms. And, that is what happened. Several reports of wind damage from Ballard County, Kentucky into Marshall and Calloway Counties. Also, wind damage was reported in Hickman County. Some of the winds ranged from 50-70 mph. There were even reports of damage to a few barns and homes in Hickman County, Kentucky. Thunderstorm had tops over 50,000 feet. That is a lot of energy.
There was one person killed in Graves County, Kentucky. A tree blew onto their vehicle.
Rain chances will start to decrease on Wednesday evening and night. Still, a few storms left into the night. Any storms that develop could be on the heavy side. Damaging wind gusts will be one concern. But, the main concerns will be the torrential downpours and lightning.
The heat is on! We have another day of hot weather ahead of us. And, Thursday might actually be the hottest official air temperature day of the season, thus far. I say official because some of the backyard thermometers may have already reached the Thursday forecast numbers.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: Level 2 threat. A few strong storms are possible. High winds would be the main concern. Lightning and heavy downpours, as well. The overall severe weather threat is low, but not zero. A couple of reports of dime to nickel size hail will also be possible. The tornado risk is very low.
Thursday and Thursday evening: Isolated storms possible. If a storm does form on Thursday it could be quite intense. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty winds.
Friday-Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated temperatures for the coming days. Otherwise, no major shifts.
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Outside of storms on Wednesday, the main concern will be hot temperatures on Thursday. Expect highs from 94-98 degrees. Quite hot. Dew points should be lower. That means it won’t feel as stifling outside. But, anyone working outdoors will still need to take precautions to avoid overheating. Also, don’t forget our outdoor pets.
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You will want to drink plenty of fluids. Hot weather could cause problems for those working outside.
Make sure the outdoor pets have plenty of water.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Storms on Wednesday afternoon and night could produce torrential downpours. Some places will pick up 1-2″ of rain. A few storms on Thursday could also produce locally heavy rain. But, most areas will remain dry.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
