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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Especially over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Locally heavy rain possible where storms occur. Highs in the 80’s with southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars from time to time. I would not cancel plans.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, once again. Mainly early.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel plans. Just check radars from time to time if you have concerns.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy and warm/muggy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 80’s. Variable winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars, but I would not cancel any plans.
Is severe weather expected? No.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy. A 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms…especially in the evening. Lows in the 70’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. But, check radars from time to time
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there could be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts.
Monitor updates on what happens Thursday into Friday. Possible flash flood situation for parts of the region.
Thursday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Some locally heavy rain possible. Monitoring the track of tropical moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. Best chances for storms might once again be over parts of Missouri and Illinois. Highs in the 80’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? I can’t rule out severe weather.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
What impact is expected? Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Warm and humid days
2. Scattered storms will continue…some with heavy downpours
3. Where will the Gulf of Mexico system track? Missouri and Illinois? Flash flood potential in its path. Monitor updates.
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Well, let me figure out how many ways I can say warm, humid, and muggy with a chance for scattered thunderstorms. It is that time of the year! Break out the broken records. The rinse and repeat forecast has arrived.
The coming days will bring much of the same. Thunderstorms will form in the heat of the day and produce heavy downpours, lightning, gusty winds, and even small hail. Organized severe weather is not in the cards. That is the good news. Some areas will pick up no rain at all. Other areas will pick up enough rain to load up the ditches and ravines with water.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue to be over parts of Missouri and Illinois. Same as the last four days. Where storms occur you can pick up a quick 1-2 inches of rain. Especially true where repeated precipitation occurs (training of storms over the same area).
High PWAT values are making the atmosphere juicy. Storms that form are producing very heavy downpours. Let’s look at the PWAT map. Guest where all this moisture is coming from? If you said the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico then you would be right. Along with the Caribbean. Image is from wright-weather.com
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
You can see from the dark red colors where the moisture is streaming in from. Follow it back into the Gulf waters.
Let’s pull out a bit more. The North American view
See the blog in the Gulf of Mexico? That is the tropical system that is going to enhance rainfall totals over the coming week across much of Texas into Oklahoma and eventually into parts of our region.
Temperatures over the coming days will vary a little bit. Cloud cover will shave off 2-4 degrees from temperatures during the day and keep temperatures up at night. Where the sun comes out you will quickly pop into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s.
Let’s look at the last 5 days of rainfall in our region. How much rain fell? Up to 4 inches across parts of southern Illinois.
Here are the maps from weatherbell.com
This map is centered on eastern Missouri and southern Illinois. You can see the heavy totals over parts of our region.
This is what has already fallen. Big difference across the region. Even heavier rains have fallen to our north
Zoomed in on our south and southeast counties
Here is a more accurate view of the heavy rain that fell over southern Illinois. Parts of Johnson County, Illinois received repeated heavy thunderstorms. They had the largest totals. Quite a few places picked up 0.50″ to 2″ of rain.
Our best chance for widespread rain and storms will likely arrive with the disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. I have been talking about this for 2 weeks! Long range forecasting sometimes pans out.
The system will produce news worthy flooding rains over parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and perhaps into Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Still some debate in the data about the exact track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates. Flash flood watches will be necessary along its track path.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. All weather eyes are on the system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico
2. Next cold front is forecast to arrive around Sunday or Monday
3. Can you believe July will be knocking soon?
One payoff of reading the blog is that you read about the overall pattern and how it might impact our region down the road. Over the past few weeks I have been zeroing in on the tropics. Both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. The reason was that all roads from there lead to the Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley. A stream of high PWAT values/moisture.
The pattern has unfolded just about as expected. Rounds of heavy rain across portions of our region and areas to the north and west. Some places have received 2 months worth of rain in the last 2 weeks. No surprise with PWAT values of 1.5-2.5″ from time to time.
Tropical moisture coming out of the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico continues to stream into the United States. This tropical moisture has been responsible for a LOT of rain across a huge chunk of real estate.
Let’s look at the rainfall totals from the past 7 days
Images are from weatherbell.com – click to enlarge them
Let’s look at the rainfall totals from the last 2 weeks
Parts of western Kentucky continue to miss out on the bigger totals. Why is this? If you remember in the summer forecast I mentioned a ridge of high pressure to the south and east. I mentioned there would be a tug of war between the ridge to our southeast and the trough to our west. That is what is happening.
Ridges produce warm/hot weather with only a little rainfall. Troughs produce lots of rain and clouds…lower temperatures.
Western Kentucky is finding itself trapped under the ridge, more often than not. That means less rain and storms over that area vs southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Confidence remains high that above normal precipitation will continue for Missouri and Illinois into the coming weeks. Less confidence for western Kentucky.
All eyes are currently on a system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This slug of moisture is going to move into Texas over the coming days and eventually into the Missouri Valley.
This is not going to be a monster tropical storm or hurricane. It is going to be a huge slug of heavy rain. That is the main concern.
Here is the system on satellite
Here is the visible view of the system
Here is an animation of the system (Monday evening)
But where will it track? How far south and east will the heavy rain and wind extend?
A lot of the data is clustered in bringing the system into Missouri and Illinois. Fairly good agreement. Sure there are some differences. Of course those differences could change the forecast for our region. The further south and east it tracks…the higher the rain totals will be over our southern and eastern counties.
Here are the path track forecasts from all of the computer models. Messy map? Yes. That is what all the models look like. I didn’t leave any out. Basically this map is showing the system moving into Texas and then moving into Oklahoma and eventually into Missouri and Illinois.
That continues to be the wild card in the forecast. NOAA and the computer models continue to vary in the details. But, not off by much. Most data tracks the system into Missouri and Illinois. A few models track it a bit further south and east.
I would not be surprised if this system intensified over land. Why? For a few reasons. One is great inflow for the system. Favorable outflow and perhaps because the ground over Oklahoma and Texas is warm and moist. Some debate among meteorologists on this topic. We will see what happens as it moves inland.
I feel confident that parts of Missouri and Illinois will pick up 2-4″ of rain from this system. Pockets of 3-6″ likely will occur, as well.
Gusty winds and at least a few scattered tornado warnings will also be possible…if the system tracks as expected.
This is the latest high res tropical model from weatherbell.com
This is concerning for our region and will need to be monitored. You can follow the center of the storm
Let’s look at a few charts.
Again, the exact track will determine what happens in our local counties. I will continue to monitor and update the forecast as we move forward.
Let’s look at these maps. The lower left is the future-cast radar. Keep in mind this is still days away.
This is for 7 am on Thursday morning
This is for 1 pm on Thursday
This is the 7 pm image on Thursday
Then Friday at 1 am. You can see this model brings the system through our region.
NOAA is forecasting the heaviest rain band to look like this. Will this be correct? Bands of 4-7″ of rain into Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio?
Any shift south and east will bring it further into our region.
Here is the NAM model track. Follow the heavy rain path. Again, notice how Missouri and Illinois end up with the most rain.
Let’s push out further into the long range.
Models are showing additional thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move through the region.
Here is the GFS depiction of that
Purple and blue represents showers and storms. Images are from wright-weather.com
See the moisture coming in from the north? It is moving south and east.
By Monday afternoon…much of the precipitation has shifted east and south.
Models bring in another thunderstorm batch around Tuesday or Tuesday night. This would be an MCS. If it occurs. MCS is a cluster of storms.
And yet another batch of storms on Thursday of next week (long way off for rolling the dice on these events).
I will keep an eye on the rain chances and update accordingly. The bottom line is that the wet pattern (for some) will likely continue.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coming days will produce locally heavy rain. Same as the past week. Some areas will miss out. Again, same as recent days.
A bigger rain event is possible towards Thursday and Friday. This will accompany the system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. The exact track will determine how much rain falls.
Another shot at rain towards Sunday and Monday as a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE. Some gusty storms will again be possible on Monday into at least Wednesday and Thursday.
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible, but they should remain below severe levels
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible, but they should remain below severe levels
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Some storms are possible, but they should remain below severe levels. Monitor updates concerning the track of the tropical system coming into the Gulf of Mexico.
The main concern continues to be centered around these heavy thunderstorms that form during the late morning and afternoon hours. Downpours of 1-2″ per hour can quickly cause some issues with street flooding and poorly drained areas.
Lightning is a concern, as always. Outdoor events should monitor radars.
Gusty winds with some of the storms. There have been a few reports over the recent days of wind damage to trees. Isolated.
Another case of better safe than sorry…throw an umbrella and rain jacket in the car. That is about the best advice! Some places will end up with a heavy downpour and other areas will remain mostly dry. Same pattern from the past few days.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast is an easy one. Where does all of the tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico spread over the coming week? We already have deep moisture over much of the southern and central United States. This is thanks to hurricane outs in the Pacific and a rich feed of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
Any boundaries or systems that interact with all of this moisture will produce heavy thunderstorms.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
