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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. A few scattered thunderstorms in the region. Heavy downpours where they develop. Lows in the lower 70’s with south winds at 10 mph. Gusty winds in the evening.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here
Sunday – Partly sunny. Continued warm and humid. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms scattered in the region. Locally heavy rain will storms occur. Gusty winds, as well. Highs will be in the upper 80’s where cloud cover is thicker and perhaps lower 90’s elsewhere. Southerly winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%.
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows in the lower 70’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in case some storms form.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Monday – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible. Highs around 86 to 92 degrees. Southerly winds at 10 mph. Storms that form could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail
Monday night – Some clouds with showers and thunderstorms possible. Some storms will produce heavy downpours and gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail.
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain possible. Highs in the 80’s with southerly winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a back up plan.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Where storms do occur there will be heavy downpours, lightning, and 30-40 mph wind gusts. Small chance for pea to nickel size hail
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Sunday will bring warm and humid conditions. A few storms.
2. Increasing storm chances on Monday into Monday night
3. Watching the tropics. Been talking about this for two weeks. Potential for very heavy rain somewhere in the MO or OH Valley’s this coming week. But where will the moisture track?
3. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line…
Sunday will be warm and humid. Better chances of storms will arrive on Monday and Monday night as a stronger disturbance approaches the region.
How much rain fell from Saturday morning into Saturday evening (7 am to 11 pm)? Well, here you go! From 0.00″ to 3″+ of rain fell in the region. It really is all about location! Click image for a larger view (scale is on the left)
Do you remember me talking about PWAT values? When they are high…thunderstorms produce torrential downpours. PWAT values on Saturday afternoon and evening were above 2″. That is WELL above the normal PWAT values that one would expect this time off the year.
Here is the PWAT map from Saturday afternoon
More warm weather for the region on Sunday. Expect the above normal temperatures to continue into much of the new work week. If we have more clouds than anticipated then perhaps some days will bring normal temperatures vs above normal. Either way, warm and humid.
We are going to have high dew points in the region over the coming week. That means it will feel humid. Dew points in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s! Air you wear, as Jim Rasor says.
Any disturbance or trigger that moves through this warm and moist air will produce heavy thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour can occur with a setup like this. If thunderstorms train over the same areas then many inches of rain can fall in a short amount of time. Not uncommon for June.
Thunderstorm chances on Sunday will be in the 30%-40% range. A disturbance on Monday will cause thunderstorm chances to increase into the 40%-60% range. Again, any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds of 40-55 mph, and nickel size hail. The risk for actual severe weather is low.
Monday night and Tuesday will bring thunderstorm chances, as well. I will be monitoring for the possibility of overnight thunderstorm complexes. These can also produce very heavy rain and gusty thunderstorm winds.
Summer pattern.
I have been telling you for the last couple of weeks that we need to keep a very close eye on the tropics. Tropical moisture could very well be swept into our region over the coming 7-10 days. I should say…tropical moisture will be swept into our region. It already is moving in. A long stream of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.
Here is the Saturday evening IR satellite view. Look down in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Lot of moisture moving north and northwest.
and the water vapor image. Look at all that moisture.
I also continue to watch the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development later this week. If that occurs then we will need to monitor the track of the moisture.
The NAM model takes the system into the Missouri Valley…a bit west of our region. Other models bring it closer to our local counties. Lot to monitor over the coming week.
Here is the track from the NAM model (follow the heavy rain)
There are some signs of below normal temperatures as we push towards the end of the month. We shall see.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Unsettled week ahead.
2. Showers and thunderstorms during the new work week could produce some heavy rain.
3. Watch the tropics
The new work week will bring some unsettled weather to the region. Increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will mix with several disturbances. Each disturbance could trigger a round of showers and thunderstorms.
Timing the disturbances will be tricky. A lot will depend on overnight thunderstorm complexes (called MCS’s). Outflow boundaries left over from the previous days storms. Placement of cold fronts and warm fronts.
I do believe most areas are going to pick up some rain and storms over the coming week. With as much moisture as we have in the atmosphere there could be some very heavy rainfall totals. Don’t be surprised if someone picks up enough rainfall to cause some flash flooding. Where that occurs will be a now-cast. Very hard to forecast these slow moving thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
All that can be said is that the pattern favors locally heavy rain over the coming 7-10 days. I will need to evaluate the setup the night before and the day of thunderstorm chances.
I have been warning you about the potential of a lot of moisture coming out of the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico for the coming week. Started talking about this 2 weeks ago. It is starting.
The potential exist for some very heavy rain somewhere in the TX and LA area into the Missouri and Ohio Valley. The exact track of all of this moisture and associated fronts/boundaries will be key to where very heavy rain falls. Some places between now and next weekend will pick up 3-6″+ inches of rain. Bands of heavy rain. But, the exact placement of this is still a bit uncertain. Monitor updates. Not saying it will be over our region, but it could be.
Officially here is what NOAA is saying…more and more forecasters are jumping on-board with the idea of a heavy rain event somewhere in the Central U.S. over the coming 7 days.
Here is what the GFS model is showing. Images from weatherbell.com
Zoomed in image
Here is one of the high resolution models showing the track of the possible tropical system
One thing that concerns me is that the ground is very wet from Texas into Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas and Missouri. If this system does indeed develop then it could maintain its strength/energy well into the U.S.
That could mean strong winds and heavy rainfall along its path.
This is the June 18th future-cast path for the system. Low confidence in how this plays out.
The big question is whether or not it develops at all. Either way there could be quite a bit of precipitation moving into parts of the region over the coming week. Stay tuned
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Once again we will be situated under a setup where some locations will pick up locally heavy rain and other areas will remain dry.
The best chance for widespread rainfall totals will likely be somewhere over south central and southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois and northern parts of southern Illinois. Say from Poplar Bluff towards Mt Vernon and then over towards White County, Illinois. Areas south and east of there will have a chance for rain and storms, but perhaps not as great of coverage.
Rainfall totals will range from no rain at all in some spots to well over 1″ in the heavier storms. Typical late spring and early summer type precipitation pattern.
Monday into Wednesday we may see thunderstorm chances increase quite a bit over the region. Heavier rain is possible during this time. Monitor updates.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE
Anyone with outdoor events should monitor radars and lightning data. Even though a thunderstorm might not be severe, it could certainly cause problems if you have an outdoor sporting event or are camping.
Thunderstorms this time of the year can always produce an isolated damaging wind gust. Heavy downpours and lightning are typical for storms during June. If a storm does not move much then isolated pockets of flash flooding can even occur.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Organized severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible. Storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain/lightning.
No major concerns. There could be some storms over the coming days. If you have outdoor events then keep that in mind. Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events, of course. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
There could be some gusty winds on lakes and rivers over the coming days.
Maybe keep an umbrella handy. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday and Sunday night. Perhaps greater coverage on Monday into Tuesday.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in the forecast for Sunday will be precipitation coverage. A few scattered storms will be possible. I suspect greater coverage will occur on Monday into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
