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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
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Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Just a few passing clouds possible.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Mostly sunny. Warmer. A bit more humid, as well.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 11:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:01 a.m. Waxing crescent
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
Moonset will be at 12:36 a.m.
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Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Less than a 10% chance for a storm.
What impact is expected? Heat index should rise well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-96 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be hot.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:14 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 12:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing crescent
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly sunny. Breezy, at times. Hot and humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Heat index should reach into the 90’s to perhaps 102 degrees. A stray thunderstorm could produce wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 1:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:09 a.m. First quarter.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for an isolated thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds west/northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly sunny. Muggy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 90-95 degree range. Heat index into the upper 90s to around 100.
Winds: West/southwest winds at 7-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 2:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? No.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. Warm. Muggy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
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Wednesday – Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 7-8. Moderate/High.
Moonrise will be at 3:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Low confidence as we move into the end of next week. Some data continues rain chances into all of Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday of the following week. I will be monitoring guidance trends.
% chances will increase if confidence grows in the overall pattern. Keep that in mind. I never go with high % numbers this far out into the future. I ramp up with time. A 30% chance for precipitation in the long range is actually fairly high.
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-86 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-9. High.
Moonrise will be at 4:51 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:14 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday – Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7. Medium to high.
Moonrise will be at 5:46 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:49 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Possibly wet roadways and lightning
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-66 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday – Partly to sunny. Adjustments might be made for next weekend. Some guidance shows storm chances into Saturday and Sunday. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 6-7. Moderate.
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 7:34 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:09 a.m. Waxing Gibbous.
Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday – Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 5:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-10. Very high.
Moonrise will be at 8:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:57 a.m. Full moon.
Monday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Mini-heat wave for the weekend. Widespread 90’s.
- Storm chances next
- Much cooler again end of next week. Rinse and repeat same cycle over and over again
Thursday was another nice day for the region. You have to love days like this in June.
A mini-heat wave develops this weekend. Expect upper 80s to middle 90s from Friday into Monday. Heat index values from 95-100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. It will be warm and humid. Only small thunderstorm chances on Saturday, Sunday and Sunday night. Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Monday night.
Temperatures will be well above normal Friday into Monday.
Check out the Friday anomalies. How much above or below normal temperatures will climb.
A cold front approaches our region early next week. Thunderstorm chances increase quite a bit by Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rain is likely in the region. Frequent lightning, as well. Some storms could produce gusty winds.
Another cool shot as we move towards next Thursday/Friday. Does this all sound familiar? It should. We have been repeating this cycle for months.
Some guidance shows rain and storms next Thursday through the following Monday. However, guidance is not in agreement. It is too far out for any confidence. I will be monitoring trends.
Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night into Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday into Sunday night: Isolated thunderstorm chance. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday into Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be possible. Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in the short range forecast.
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No major short range weather concerns (other than hot weather this weekend)
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Summer heat will be a concern this weekend. Our first heat wave of the season. Sun screen alert! UV index will range from 9-10 on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
