July 9, 2020. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

.
Wednesday through Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Summer heat and summer thunderstorms will be with us into at least Sunday. Lightning will be a concern. It appears the main concern will be afternoon and evening thunderstorms. I call those heat of the day storms. Chances will decrease overnight But won’t be a zero risk).

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. The main concern will be down burst wind. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can grow to 40,000 to 55,000′. When they weaken they can collapse. This causes high winds. Winds can exceed 50 mph.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.

4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values from 100 to 105 are likely outside of cloudy areas.

6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.

.
Thursday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Friday WBGT (F): 82° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.

The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).

This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.

If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.

Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.

Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.

July 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 94° West KY 90° to 94° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms are possible early in the night and then a chance late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:34 PM
Moonset: 10:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of thunderstorms. If clouds are thicken then temperatures won’t be nearly as hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50% IL ~ 40% to 50% KY ~ 40% to 50% TN ~ 40% to 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: A few clouds. Warm and humid. A chance scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A slight chance of lightning and wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:26 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° SE MO 88° to 94° South IL 88° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° West KY 88° to 94° NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
.

Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:51 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

July 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 96° SE MO 92° to 96° South IL 92° to 96° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 96° West KY 92° to 96° NW TN 92° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 2:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

July 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° SE MO 94° to 96° South IL 94° to 96° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° West KY 94° to 96° NW TN 94° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:45 AM
Moonset: 3:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

What is the UV index?

Muggy and hot weather.
Daily chance of mainly heat of the day thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind where they occur.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.

Click graphics to enlarge them.

These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is low confidence.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

.

.

.
Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through July 14th: Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce isolated wind damage. Torrential downpours and nickel size hail, as well. Lightning will be a concern for those outside. There is a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms. This chance increases if we can get a complex of thunderstorm (an MCS) to form.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

..
Weather advice:

Updated July 8, 2020

Scattered thunderstorms over the coming days will produce downpours, gusty wind, and lightning. Monitor the radars if you have outdoor events.

Lightning is always a concern for those outside, boating, or other. Head indoors if thunder roars.

Heat index values today through Sunday will rise into the 95 to 100 degree range. Muggy weather. Use care, as always.

Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars. Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather. Use common sense, as always.

Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

Weather Discussion

1. More heat and humidity.
2. Monitoring thunderstorm chances.
3. Heat-wave next week.

Good day, everyone.

The heat and humidity will continue. Our only real break will come when clouds thicken and some thunderstorms form. Otherwise, hot and muggy weather through next week.

I am carefully monitoring the chance of MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are normal during the summer months and provide much of our rainfall from June through August.

These MCS’s often times move into our region from the northwest.

We have two or three chances of a thunderstorm complex either hitting our region or clipping it.

One of those will occur tonight. Model guidance is not in agreement on the path. Some of the models take it just to our west and some just to our east.

We do have a marginal risk of severe weather tonight. The reason for the marginal is the potential thunderstorm complex.

I am not overly confident that this one hits the entire region. It is more likely to clip us.

We have another chance Friday night/Saturday morning and perhaps another one Sunday.

None of these three thunderstorm complexes is a sure bet or slam dunk forecast.

Highs today through Sunday will be in the lower 90s. If clouds are thicker then highs will only reach into the 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the 70s.

Heat index values, outside of thicker areas of clouds, will range from 94 to 98 with pockets of 100 to 105 degrees. Not all that comfortable. Muggy.

It appears that temperatures will rise next week and we may be dealing with highs in the middle and upper 90s. That means heat index values of 100 to 110. A heat advisory may be issued next week. Repeated days in the 90s will take a toll on those susceptible to hot weather.

Not all that great of a forecast for those who do not love hot and muggy weather.

Let me show you the 500 mb maps. We are looking for ridges and troughs.

We will be in a trough this weekend. Northwest flow. Notice the blue colors. Those are cooler than normal heights. That does not mean it will be cool.

We will have heat all weekend. What it does mean is that there is a slightly better chance of thunderstorms. Again, MCS’s.

You can see that dip here. Notice the dark red over the southwest United States. That will spread into our region.

That is the heat ridge.

We move into next Thursday. See the heat ridge over us? Dark red colors. Hot weather.

Next Sunday. The heat ridge remains in our region.

July 25th. The American model shows the heat ridge still over our region. If true, this would mean a prolonged period of hot and dry weather.

Actual temperatures will be in the middle 90s. Occasionally, upper 90s will be possible, as well. That will depend on the placement of the core of that heat ridge mentioned above.

These are heat index values. That represents temperatures combined with dew points. Heat index is all that matters if you have to work outside.

Those who work outside depend on the heat index numbers to figure out how often they need a break.

Next Wednesday

Next Thursday

Next Friday

Next Saturday

Next Sunday

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

This animation is the Hrrr model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.