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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday through Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Isolated storms today into Saturday. Most areas will remain dry. A better chance of lightning late Saturday night into Sunday. The risk of lightning Monday through next Friday appears to be low. Monitor.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. The main concern will be down burst wind. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can grow to 40,000 to 55,000′. When they weaken they can collapse. This causes high winds. Winds can exceed 50 mph.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Slow moving storms will produce heavy rain. Pockets of flash flooding may occur.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Heat index values from 100 to 105 are likely outside of cloudy areas.
6. Will the wet-bulb globe temperature reach caution or danger levels? Yes.
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Friday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Saturday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Sunday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Monday WBGT (F): 83° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Tuesday WBGT (F): 84° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
Wednesday WBGT (F): 85° Take 15 minute breaks each hour of working or exercising in direct sunlight.
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The WetBulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight, which takes into account: temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover (solar radiation).
This differs from the heat index, which takes into consideration temperature and humidity and is calculated for shady areas.
If you work or exercise in direct sunlight, this is a good element to monitor.
Sports coaches, schools, military agencies, OSHA, and many nations use the WBGT as a guide to managing workload in direct sunlight.
Something wrong on the page? Suggestions? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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July 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A small chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 102°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset: 8:18 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few clouds. Most likely dry. Any storms would be isolated. I will keep an eye on a potential thunderstorm cluster late Friday night moving through central Missouri. It could clip portions of southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the area. Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 10:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 90° to 94° South IL 90° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: A few clouds. A chance of thunderstorms (mainly late).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (late)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 12:00 AM
Moonset: 11:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 84° to 88° South IL 84° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° West KY 84° to 88° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 92°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Numerous if an MCS develops. Thunderstorm complex.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:44 AM
Sunset: 8:17 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. A slight chance of lightning and wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:26 AM
Moonset: 12:53 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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July 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:42 AM
Sunset: 8:19 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:51 AM
Moonset: 1:49 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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July 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 2:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:46 AM
Sunset: 8:16 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates.
Moonrise: 1:45 AM
Moonset: 3:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:47 AM
Sunset: 8:15 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset: 4:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:55 AM
Moonset: 4:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 18, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:14 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:39 AM
Moonset: 6:47 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:49 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:31 AM
Moonset: 7:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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July 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A chance of thunderstorms developing. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 95° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Heat. Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitors updates
UV Index: 11. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:50 AM
Sunset: 8:13 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning, Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:30 AM
Moonset: 8:35 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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What is the UV index?
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- Muggy and hot weather.
- Daily chance of mainly heat of the day thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind where they occur.
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Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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These are dates that may have precipitation. Monitor the trends in the forecast.
Anything past day seven is low confidence.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through July 14th: Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce isolated wind damage. Torrential downpours and nickel size hail, as well. Lightning will be a concern for those outside. There is a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms. This chance increases if we can get a complex of thunderstorm (an MCS) to form.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated July 10, 2020
Scattered thunderstorms over the coming days will produce downpours, gusty wind, and lightning. Monitor the radars if you have outdoor events.
Lightning is always a concern for those outside, boating, or other. Head indoors if thunder roars.
Heat index values today through Sunday will rise into the 95 to 100 degree range. Locally higher numbers. Muggy weather. Use care, as always.
Don’t leave pets, children, or adults in hot cars. Cars can rapidly heat to above 115 degrees in this kind of weather. Use common sense, as always.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- More heat and humidity.
- Monitoring thunderstorm chances.
- Heat-wave next week.
Good day, everyone.
The heat and humidity will continue. Our only real break will come when clouds thicken and some thunderstorms form. Otherwise, hot and muggy weather through next week.
I am carefully monitoring the chance of MCS’s. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes. They are normal during the summer months and provide much of our rainfall from June through August.
These MCS’s often times move into our region from the northwest.
We have two or three chances of a thunderstorm complex either hitting our region or clipping it.
One of those will occur tonight. That one would clip southeast Missouri. Most likely dry, elsewhere.
We have another chance Saturday night and Sunday.
Highs today through Sunday will be in the lower 90s. If clouds are thicker then highs will only reach into the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the 70s.
Heat index values, outside of thicker areas of clouds, will range from 94 to 98 with pockets of 100 to 105 degrees. Not all that comfortable. Muggy.
It appears that temperatures will rise next week and we may be dealing with highs in the middle and upper 90s. That means heat index values of 100 to 110. A heat advisory may be issued next week. Repeated days in the 90s will take a toll on those susceptible to hot weather.
Not all that great of a forecast for those who do not love hot and muggy weather.
Monday through Friday of next week will be hot and humid. Daily highs in the 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.
At this time, it appears that it will be dry. A few days towards the middle and end of the week could reach into the upper 90s.
Heat index values will top 100 degrees each day. July weather!
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models handle afternoon and evening thunderstorms poorly. Keep that in mind.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers July 10th through July 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers July 17th through July 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers July 24th through August 6th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
July Precipitation
Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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