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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
A weather pattern with cooler air in the upper atmosphere will keep temperatures near or slightly below normal this week. It will also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening each day.
Not everyone will see rain. Most locations have only a 20% to 40% chance of receiving at least one-tenth of an inch of rain through Thursday. This means the storms will be the typical hit-or-miss summertime variety.
While a few storms could become briefly strong with gusty winds, widespread severe weather is not expected through Wednesday.
⛈️ Better Rain and Storm Chances Late This Week
The weather pattern will become more active on Thursday and Friday as a stronger weather system and a cold front move toward the Quad State region.
This will increase the chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, and some storms could become strong to severe.
- Thursday evening into Thursday night: Storms are most likely across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.
- Friday afternoon and evening: Storms are expected to spread south across much of the rest of the region.
The chance of severe storms will increase during this time, with the main threats likely to be damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
If you missed the scattered rain earlier in the week, Thursday night through Friday night looks like the best opportunity for widespread rainfall, with most areas likely to receive measurable rain.
🌦️ Next Weekend and Beyond
Unsettled weather may continue into next weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Looking ahead to July 13-16, forecast models suggest a large area of high pressure may build into the central United States. If that happens, we could see several dry days along with a return to hotter temperatures. Exactly how far east that hot weather spreads is still uncertain, but at least a few hot days appear likely during that period.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
July 6th through July 12th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: MONITOR. I am monitoring Thursday and Friday.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Scattered lightning is possible today and this evening. A lower risk on Tuesday and Wednesday. A higher risk on Thursday and Friday. Perhaps some lightning on Saturday and Sunday (lower chance).
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. I will monitor Thursday and Friday. Keep in mind that summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours that can briefly overwhelm drainage systems.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Mainly on Thursday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. On Thursday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the 6 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where scattered summer storms will form.
Take a general idea from these graphics.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the four-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Monday
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Monday night
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Tuesday
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Tuesday night
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Wednesday
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Wednesday night
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Thursday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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Hrrr Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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