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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
🥵 Hot again today. Rain chances increase this weekend.
Another day of heat and high dew points. Afternoon temperatures combined with high dew points will make it feel like 105 to 112 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through this evening.
For the July 4th holiday, increasing clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will provide a little relief. Heat index values should be a bit lower, ranging from 102 to 107 degrees on Friday and 98 to 105 degrees on Sunday.
The humidity will stick around into next week, but slightly cooler temperatures should keep heat index values mostly in the 90s instead of the dangerous levels we’ve seen this week.
⛈️ Storm Chances
As always, during the summer months, thunderstorms can produce pockets of heavy rain, wind damage, and lightning. All of that heat energy has to go somewhere. Stay weather aware. If storm clouds threaten, then move indoors until the storms pass.
I would not cancel any holiday plans. Just be aware that a few storms are possible.
⚠️ A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening, mainly across the eastern half of the region. Some of these storms could become strong, and the eastern counties are under a Marginal Risk for severe weather.
Here is that marginal risk. The dark green is the level one risk. The levels range from one to five. The light green is where storms are possible, but likely not severe.
As always, don’t get caught in the exact location of the colors. The SPC could move this around a little bit today. Just know that a few storms could be intense later today.
Rain chances will continue through the holiday weekend and into early next week as several weather systems move through the area.
- Saturday: A 30% to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
- Sunday through Tuesday: A 40% to 60% chance.
- The best chance for rain will be across western Kentucky on Monday and Tuesday, especially near a slow-moving cold front.
Wednesday through Friday of next week:
The slow-moving front is expected to remain near the region through the middle and latter part of next week, keeping daily chances (20% to 40%) for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️
July 3rd through July 9th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe weather risk: SCATTERED. Summer storms can produce frequent lightning and isolated downburst winds. Heavy downpours, as well. Winds can be strong enough to bring down tree limbs and power lines.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? SCATTERED. Lightning is possible this afternoon into next week. Campers or those with outdoor events should monitor live weather radar and lightning data. Links at the bottom of the page.
2. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED ISSUES. Keep in mind that slow-moving summer storms can produce torrential downpours.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through Sunday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through Sunday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? POSSIBLE. Today and perhaps tomorrow.
Here are the heat index values
Friday
Those lower areas are where this model believes storms may form.
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Saturday
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Sunday
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Your body responds to the heat index. The heat index is more important than the actual temperature. More information about the heat index: Click here.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.
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Here are the 5 AM temperatures and dew points. Dew points control how muggy it feels.
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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast
There will be scattered torrential downpours in summer storms. Same as every summer. That will not be captured by these graphics.
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where scattered summer storms will form.
Take a general idea from these graphics. Many areas will receive little rainfall. Some will receive quite a bit in slow-moving summer storms.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
Let’s look at the four-day rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Friday
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Friday night
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Saturday
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Saturday night
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Sunday
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Sunday night
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Monday
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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EC Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
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Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
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Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
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