July 4, 2019: Weather update.

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Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Summer storms can produce isolated wind damage.
Friday: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain. Low-end severe risk (isolated wind damage)
Saturday: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Lightning and gusty winds. Locally heavy rain. Low-end severe risk (isolated wind damage)
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Low-end severe risk.
Monday: Isolated thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern.
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None

Scattered heavy thunderstorms will be a concern. Fairly typical summer atmosphere. Hot and muggy.
River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.

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Thursday through Saturday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thunderstorms will produce frequent lightning.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could briefly reach severe levels. Isolated damaging wind is the main concern.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving storms can quickly produce one to two inches of rain. This could cause issues in areas with saturated ground conditions.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Values of 95 to 100 most of this week. Occasionally, during peak heating, a bit higher.

Sunday through Wednesday

Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely on Sunday. Isolated lightning on Monday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could briefly reach severe levels on Sunday. Isolated damaging wind is the main concern.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor Sunday. Slow moving storms can quickly produce one to two inches of rain. This could cause issues in areas with saturated ground conditions.
Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Perhaps on Saturday. This will depend on clouds. Heat index readings may be a bit less by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes.

What changes might occur in the forecast?

Rain probabilities on Monday and Tuesday may need adjusting. For now, I have a mostly dry to dry forecast for those two days.

July 4, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. More summer heat and humidity. Muggy conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 7:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:15 PM

July 5, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. Summer heat and humidity.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 8:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:58 PM

July 6, 2019.
Saturday’s Forecast: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. Summer heat and humidity.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:40 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 50% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Stronger storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 9:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:37 PM

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Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms. 40% during the day and 20% at night. High ranging from 86 to 92 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light winds.

Monday: Low confidence. Mostly sunny. A slight chance of a thunderstorm. High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light winds.

Tuesday: Low confidence. Mostly sunny. High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light winds.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

Wind forecast

N/A

Click the graphics to expand them.

Thunderstorms between now and Sunday could occasionally interrupt outdoor plans. Monitor radars. There will be plenty of dry time.

Typical summer heat of the day thunderstorms. We may see a few more storms at night by Thursday into the weekend.

I would not cancel plans but I would monitor updates and radars. If you go camping then be storm aware.

Click the graphics to expand them.

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday through Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible through at least Sunday. There will be plenty of dry time. Any thunderstorms that form could produce locally heavy rain, strong and gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.

The best advice is to check radars periodically. Monitor my app messages.

The main concern will be downburst winds.

A low-end risk today into Saturday (isolated damaging wind risk). The risk is lower on Sunday. No severe weather risk on Monday and Tuesday.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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Rinse and repeat pattern.
Locally heavy storms, warm, and muggy.

Current conditions.

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Weather
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Advice:

Thunderstorms between now and Sunday could interrupt some outdoor plans. Monitor radars. There will be plenty of dry time.

It won’t rain all the time and it may not rain everywhere.

I would not cancel plans but I would monitor updates and radars. If you go camping then be storm aware, as always.

The main concern for those outdoors will be lightning. Again, a common issue in our local area. A second concern will be isolated damaging wind gusts.

Weather:

Weather Forecast Analysis

Happy Fourth of July, everyone!

No changes in the forecast.

I just wanted to drop a quick update for your holiday weekend.

The main concern for those outdoors will be spotty thunderstorms with lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds. Small hail, as well.

Utilize the radars.

Most of the time, these storms remain below severe levels. Occasionally, however, they can pulse up enough to produce a few reports of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts.

They normally are not warned on. They are too brief. So, keep this in mind. Any storms that form could be locally intense.

This is typical for the summer months.

A cold front will push into the region Friday night into Sunday. This will provide a greater focus for showers and thunderstorms.

Some of the storms could be intense. The threat of severe weather may be a tad higher on Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night. Cold fronts can provide more lift and a bit more wind shear.

I will keep an eye on it.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
The time stamp is located in the upper left corner.
During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.

The NAM 3K model

The SPC WRF model

The Hrrr

.These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Off for the holiday

Long Range Video.

Off for the holiday

The Missouri Valley

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Key Points:

Rainfall over the past 24 hours was focused heaviest across the Midwest from Iowa to northern IL / IN and then half of Ohio with widespread 0.5-1.5”. Similar totals were noted in a good portion of the Dakotas as well.
Noting a similar forecast between the Euro and GFS models for week one rainfall potential. We still favor the GFS slightly more due to a possible storm cluster to impact more of the Central Plains on a wider scale vs Euro. Both models continue to favor a “northwest flow” type of above normal moisture over the ridge to the south. This won’t come all at once. It’s more of a culmination of each day that makes up these totals. A mid-summer like pattern.
We are still expecting the eastern half of the grain belt to be normal to slightly above normal in temps for week one. Cooler to the west with growing degree days slowly starting to back down. This is a result of pushing the heat more east each day into mid-July.
Neither the GEFS or EPS models offer a correct solution today for the week two precipitation forecast. With that said, the GEFS model is favored in its widespread normal to above normal rainfall solution. The EPS is wetter but likely too far north. We still anticipate the heart of these rains to fall in the north-central to central Plains, Midwest and the Missouri Valley into mid-July.
Today’s takeaway: Because of the up-and-down nature of the pattern into weeks two/three due to the large fluctuations of the SOI last week from negative to positive. It’s no surprise to see model volatility higher with big run-to-run changes. We expect this to continue.

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 0.90″

Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.

This outlook covers July 3rd through July 9th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 72 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers July 10th through July 16th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
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This outlook covers July 12th through July 25th

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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July temperature outlook

The July forecast has been posted.

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July precipitation outlook

August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

Communicate in simple terms
To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 702

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a National Aviation Meteorologist at the FAA Command Center near Warrenton, Virginia. He earned his degree at the University of Oklahoma, and started a career in broadcasting immediately afterwards.

He then moved on to the NWS. Michael Eckert, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: