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Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Summer storms can produce isolated wind damage.
Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Summer storms can produce isolated wind damage.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Low-end severe risk.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds. Low-end severe risk.
Monday: Monitor. It is possible we have a break from summer storms on Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday: Monitor.
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- Scattered heavy thunderstorms will be a concern. Fairly typical summer atmosphere. Hot and muggy.
- River flooding continues in many areas. Low-land flooding.
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Wednesday through Friday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could briefly reach severe levels.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Slow moving storms can quickly produce one to two inches of rain. This could cause issues in areas with saturated ground conditions.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Values of 95 to 100 most of this week. Occasionally, during peak heating, a bit higher.
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Saturday through Tuesday
- Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered through at least Sunday.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could briefly reach severe levels Saturday and Sunday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Mainly Saturday and Sunday. Slow moving storms can quickly produce one to two inches of rain. This could cause issues in areas with saturated ground conditions.
- Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees? Perhaps on Saturday. This will depend on clouds. Heat index readings may be a bit less by Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
County Maps: Click Here
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July 3, 2019
Keep in mind that the peak time of rain will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Peak heating. It will not rain everywhere. It certainly won’t rain all the time.
Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. Typical summer pattern.
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly to partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 86° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 90° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Isolated high wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered mainly early in the evening.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 6:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:24 PM
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July 4, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Isolated high wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 7:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:15 PM
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July 5, 2019.
Friday’s Forecast: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms. Warm and muggy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 88° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 88° to 92°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 95° to 100°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 9 to 10 very high
Sunrise: 5:39 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Scattered thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 74° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 74° West KY 68° to 74° NW TN 68° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:20 PM
Moonrise: 7:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:15 PM
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Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Warm and humid. Scattered thunderstorms. 30% to 40% day and 30% at night. High ranging from 88 to 92 degrees. Lows in the 70 to 74-degree range. Light winds.
Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. 40% during the day and 20% at night. High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light winds.
Monday: Low confidence. Mostly sunny. High ranging from 85 to 90 degrees. Lows in the 65 to 70-degree range. Light winds.
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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
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Wind forecast
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Farmcast for those cutting hay and working in the fields.
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Graphic-cast
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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
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Missouri
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Illinois
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Kentucky
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Tennessee
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday through Monday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible through at least Sunday. There will be plenty of dry time. It is summer. Any thunderstorms that form could produce locally heavy rain, strong and gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
The best advice is to check radars periodically. Monitor my app messages.
The main concern is downburst winds. Isolated in nature.
Near zero risk today and tomorrow (isolated damaging wind risk). A low-risk Friday into Sunday. Perhaps a tad higher risk on Saturday. I am watching a possible thunderstorm complex that will approach our region from the northwest. For now, I have no risk on Monday and Tuesday.
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Value-added severe weather graphics.
Click to enlarge
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Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.
- Rinse and repeat pattern.
- Locally heavy storms, warm, and muggy.
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Current conditions.
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May temperature and precipitation outlook
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Precipitation
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Weather
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Advice:
Thunderstorms between now and Sunday could interrupt outdoor plans. Monitor radars. There will be plenty of dry time.
It won’t rain all the time and it may not rain everywhere.
The typical summer heat of the day thunderstorms.
I would not cancel plans but I would monitor updates and radars. If you go camping then be storm aware, as always.
The main concern for those outdoors will be lightning. Again, a common issue in our local area.
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Weather:
Weather Forecast Analysis
No changes.
A typical summer-pattern is underway. Hot and muggy. Daily high temperatures from now into Sunday will range from 86 to 92 degrees. Heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. Slightly higher, at times. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
Scattered thunderstorms. Peak rain chances are between 1 PM and 9 PM. Heat of the day storms.
Occasionally, a cluster or band of storms will form in this type of atmosphere. That will increase the rain probabilities slightly.
For now, I have mostly 40% during peak heating and 30% at night.
Those numbers increase a bit over the weekend as a cold front draws closer.
I will be monitoring a potential MCS (thunderstorm complex) that is forecast to form over northern Missouri and western Illinois on Saturday. For now, I have a sticky note on it. I will monitor trends in guidance. Model guidance does not handle MCS’s all that well.
Storms this time of the year can produce isolated wind damage, nickel size hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Most storms that produce wind damage go unwarned. The reason for that is because the wind usually only lasts a few seconds or minutes.
By the time a warning is issued the wind has subsided.
If thunderstorms approach, be aware that they can produce isolated wind damage.
Lightning is a concern for those working outdoors.
I would not cancel outdoor activities. I would simply be weather aware. Go about your holiday activities.
If you have any outdoors plans then monitor radars and sky conditions. You will know if a thunderstorm is approaching. The storms will be slow moving but most will bubble up and then dissipate all within a one or two county zone.
Pulse type storms.
These storms are common during the summer months. Lack of wind shear causes them to quickly die.
They can produce heavy rain, gusty wind, and small hail.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models are rarely exactly right on their display of future-cast radars.
- The time stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- During the summer months, models do not handle thunderstorms all that well. They tend to be chaotic.
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The NAM 3K model
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The SPC WRF model
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The WRF
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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
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These are bonus videos.
I pay BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
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The Ohio Valley video
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This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
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WeatherBrains Episode 702
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Mid-Atlantic ChaserCon 2019
- Dealing with forecasting random airmass summer thunderstorms
- Hurricane Barbara forms in Eastern Pacific
- James Spann officially releases his book
- Controversy concerning NASCAR weather delay in Chicago
- National Weather Round-Up
- The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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