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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Thursday night – Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain possible in a few spots…especially near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Friday – A chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of heavy rain possible near the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
Temperatures: Highs from 78 to 84 degrees
Winds: West winds at 5-15 mph during the morning. West/northwest winds in the afternoon at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have alternative plans in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Friday night – A 30%-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Winds becoming west/northwest at 10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a back up plan in case it rains.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Saturday – Partly sunny. A 20%-30% chance for thunderstorms. Any storms that form could produce heavy rain and lightning. Mainly near the Kentucky and Tennessee border/Missouri Bootheel.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out some storms. But, many areas will remain dry. Don’t cancel plans, just have some towels and a jacket handy.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% chance
What impact is expected? Storms that do form could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Saturday night – A 10%-20% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 0-5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance
What impact is expected? If storms occur then lightning and a heavy downpour possible.
Sunday – Partly sunny. A 20% chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs from 80 to 85 degrees
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% chance
What impact is expected? Storms could produce lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Sunday night and Monday: A 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Another good chance around Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Heavy QPF (totals) possible.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Some additional rain and storms tonight into Friday.
2. Situations like this can cause fast moving water. Kids playing near fast moving water can be deadly. Many times flash flooding has claimed the lives of children in our region.
3. Chances for storms on Saturday and Sunday will be less. Scattered in nature.
4. I have some advertiser or sponsorship spots available on the blog and on Facebook. Contact me for details at beaudodson@usawx.com
Well, last week I said that 4-8 inches of rain would fall over parts of our region this week and next week. We are on track for that. As a matter of fact, some places have already recorded over 6 inches of rain in the past two days.
Here are the rainfall totals from this event, thus far (last 48 hours)
Click for a larger view
We will have additional shower and thunderstorm chances tonight (Thursday night) into Friday. The good news is that the precipitation should become more scattered on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
The best chance for storms over the next couple of days might end up in Kentucky and Tennessee. Southern counties. Also the Bootheel of Missouri and far southeast Missouri. Lesser chances further north.
Additional heavy rain won’t be appreciated by some in our region. That is a continued concern with this pattern. Even on Saturday and Sunday we could have pockets of heavy rain (where storms form).
Wednesday night brought 0.50″-6.5″ of rain across most of the region.
Small risk for a storm to produce high winds or hail. Not overly concerned about severe weather at any given location. Small chance.
Children playing near flood waters is a deadly combination. It is summer and a holiday weekend. This is a concern. Fast moving flood waters can sweep adults and children off of their feet in seconds.
Here is the Friday forecast for high temperature anomalies. How much below normal will temperatures be?
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Another cold front arrives next week with more high QPF (heavy rain) events possible
2. River flooding concerns
Another cold front will sag back into our region next Monday night into Wednesday. The timing of this front will be key to our next round of potentially heavy rain. Obviously we don’t need more heavy rain. This is a concern. Monitor updates as we move forward. The front may stall out over our region.
Temperatures will remain mostly below normal next week. There are some signs we might be near normal on Monday. Once the front moves back into the region then temperatures will fall again to below normal (daytime highs). Overnight lows might be tougher to push below normal because of wet ground conditions.
The trough is winning. For now. That means less extreme heat.
River flooding continues to be an issue in our region. Recent heavy rainfall isn’t helping our cause. More heavy rain could cause additional problems.
Historically a pattern like this means multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy. I have concerns that the rivers are so high. This will need to be monitored.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
As we enter the late spring and summer months, keep in mind that slow moving thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall totals. This is no secret to all of you who are farmers. Your neighbors could pick up 1″ of rain from a thunderstorm, meanwhile you are sitting on dry ground. Forecasting exact rainfall totals during this time of the year can be tricky, at best.
Many of you picked up quite a bit of rain over the last two days. Not everyone, but many.
We will have to deal with some more rain on Thursday night into Friday. An additional 0.50″-1.00″ will be possible. Locally higher totals are possible, as well. Same as the last few days. Any training thunderstorms can produce excessive rainfall totals in a short period of time.
Saturday and Sunday will bring 20%-30% thunderstorm chances. Where storms form they could produce torrential downpours. But, many areas will remain dry on Saturday and Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is a TWO for Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thursday night Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Thunderstorms possible, isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – A few thunderstorms possible, but mostly below severe levels.
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – A few thunderstorms possible, but mostly below severe levels.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Recent heavy rains will mean that rivers will remain high for some time to come. Fast moving water can quickly sweep people off their feet. Use care while camping. Especially children.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Lightning, as always.
A few storms could produce strong winds and even hail. The severe weather risk is low, but not zero.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
