July 27th, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Thursday through Sunday. Lower chances Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few thunderstorms could be intense Thursday into Sunday. The main concern would be gusty wind, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Damaging wind is the main severe concern.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring locally heavy rain Thursday through Sunday with thunderstorms. It is that time of the year where storms can produce gully washers.

Slow moving thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain in less than 30-minutes.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Each day through Friday. Heat index values of 100 to 110 are likely with pockets of 111 to 116.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

July 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° / SE MO 90° to 95° / South IL 90° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 95° / West KY 90° to 95° / NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 105° locally higher depending on clouds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Oppressive heat and humidity/dew points. Isolated wet roadways and lightning (south).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Check the radars.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 8:07 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 10:45 PM
Moonset: 9:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 93° to 96° / SE MO 93° to 96° / South IL 93° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 93° to 96° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 93° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 106° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Use care.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear warm and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 11:10 PM
Moonset: 10:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms moving in from the north after 4 PM.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region. Monitor the Mt Vernon, Illinois area late in the afternoon.
Timing of the rain: After 4 pm (far north)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 95° to 100° / SE MO 95° to 100° / South IL 95° to 100° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 95° to 100° / West KY 95° to 100° / NW TN 95° to 100°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 105° to 110° locally higher
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High heat index values. Use care. Thunderstorms may push into our northern counties during the late afternoon hours. Some storms could be intense if they do develop.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Areas around I64 should monitor thunderstorm chances late in the afternoon (far north).
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of locally intense showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be highest across southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Elsewhere, monitor radars and updates. An area of storms will move in from central Illinois. How far south they push remains a question.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps none far south. Scattered far north.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Gusty wind near thunderstorms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:35 PM
Moonset: 11:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered locally heavy thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° / SE MO 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly winds 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 8:06 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Numerous if a complex (MCS) of thunderstorms form.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise:
Moonset: 12:36 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

July 31, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% to 40% / SE MO ~ 30% to 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% to 40% / South IL ~ 30% to 40% / West KY ~ 30% to 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% to 40% / NW TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 92° / South IL 86° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 86° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 8:04 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:01 AM
Moonset: 1:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter

August 1st, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% to 50% / SE MO ~ 40% to 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% to 50% / South IL ~ 40% to 50% / West KY ~ 40% to 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% to 50% / NW TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92° / SE MO 86° to 92° / South IL 86° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° / West KY 86° to 92° / NW TN 86° to 92°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:28 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

August 2nd, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 83° to 86° / SE MO 83° to 86° / South IL 83° to 86° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° / SE MO 65° to 70° / South IL 65° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 65° to 70° / West KY 65° to 70° / NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 12:57 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Click the images to enlarge them.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

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Today through August 3rd: Thunderstorms are possible Thursday into Sunday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce pockets of wind damage. Locally heavy rain and lightning, as well.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion

1. Hot and muggy. High heat index values. Use care.
2. Monitoring a weekend cold front with cooler air possible. Thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

The primary weather concern over the coming days will be the heat and dew points. Oppressive, at times. Use care.

I continue to monitor thunderstorm chances Thursday into Sunday. I will monitor Monday.

Weather Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you are able to stay cool through all of this hot weather. It is not that it is so hot as much as it is muggy. Dew points are in the 70s and 80s. Those are big numbers. A large amount of moisture in the lower atmosphere. This is making it feel oppressive outside.

Actual air temperatures are in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Typical for summer. When you combine those with the high dew points, however, you end up with heat index values of 100 to 115 degrees. Those are high numbers for the human body.

The human body only cares what the heat index is. We don’t tell you that to tell you how much hotter it seems. We tell you those numbers because your body responds to both wind chill in the winter and heat index in the summer.

Heat index numbers are what kill.

I continue to monitor an incoming cold front that is forecast to arrive Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It does appear that we will see an uptick in thunderstorm chances with the front. Several bands of storms will be possible.

There remain significant differences in the model guidance as to the exact placement of the highest rain chances. Some show southeast Missouri and other models show Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Either way, I have thunderstorm chances in the forecast this coming weekend. Locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and lightning will accompany the thunderstorms. Monitor updates.

A few of the storms could be severe with damaging wind. Monitor updates.

Cooler and less humid air is likely behind the cold front. That may arrive as early as Saturday and Sunday and continue into a portion of next week. We would welcome some relief. It may not last, but we will take it.

Use care if you must work outside. Know the symptoms of heat stroke.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.