Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some afternoon clouds.  A thunderstorm possible during the afternoon (mainly over southeast Missouri).  Widely scattered elsewhere.  Some debate as to whether the front will move through the region dry.  I did include at least a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.  A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20% to 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps widely scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80%     IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:47 AM

July 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds, otherwise mostly sunny.  A slight chance of precipitation mainly before sunrise.  Greatest chance over our extreme eastern counties (Pennyrile area of west KY)
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 83 to 86     TN ~ 85 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning in a few areas
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:55 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 58 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 8:10 PM Full
Moonset: 5:39 AM

July 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some increase in clouds during the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (SE MO)
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning (southeast Missouri)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  A widely scattered shower or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 8:48 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:33 AM

July 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 84 to 86     TN ~ 84 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%      TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~ 50% to 60%    KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 9:54 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:25 AM

July 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~ 50% to 60%    KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:58 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%      KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 9:53 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:23 AM

July 31, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Perhaps a remaining shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%      KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Wind: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain with any storms that form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some evening clouds.  Clearing.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and norhtwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 10:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:21 AM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

This first graphic is the 4 day rainfall through Sunday  7 AM

Click to enlarge graphics on this page

Here are the rain totals through next Thursday morning

Click to enlarge

.

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A few thunderstorms (mainly Thursday/Thursday night) will be possible, but they will remain below severe levels.

Friday, at this time, appears dry.  There could still be some remaining showers before sunrise Friday.  Small chances of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri late Friday night.  Low confidence on those occurring.

Saturday through Tuesday:  We will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday.  Greatest chance would be Sunday and Monday.  This, as a cold front pushes into the region.  Locally heavy rain will occur with thunderstorms.

Severe weather appears unlikely, but I would suggest monitoring updates.

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Weather Headlines

1. Vacation
2. A weak cold front passes through the area today and tonight
3. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible as the front moves through the region
4. Mostly dry Friday into Saturday
5. Another cold front arrives Saturday into Monday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances (esp Sunday into Monday)

I am on vacation with family this week.  Shorter updates.  Thankfully, it should be a fairly calm week.

The jet stream has been pushing smoke from Canada and the northwest over the last couple of days.  This is causing a haze.

A weak cold front arrives today.  This front will be accompanied by a few clouds and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Most of the region will remain dry.

Here is the Hrrr model future-cast radar (time stamp upper left)

You can see that it does pop some showers and thunderstorms along the incoming front later today.

The front will deliver somewhat cooler temperatures and lower dew points.  It won’t feel as muggy behind the front.

Lows Friday night will be rather cool with upper 50’s to lower 60’s possible in the region.  Our southern and southwestern counties may end up with lower to middle 60’s.  The best chance of upper 50’s would be across portions of southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky.

Friday into Saturday should remain dry.

A stronger system approaches the region Saturday night into Monday.  This system will bring clouds and an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Locally heavy rain will be possible where thunderstorms occur.

The peak chances of rain will be Sunday afternoon into Tuesday morning.  Many areas may pick up some much needed rainfall.

I have measured about an inch of rain at the Weather Observatory since July 1st.   We had nearly 9.5″ of rain during the month of June.

The risk of severe weather appears small over the coming five day period.

PWATs will be on the rise as we move into Sunday and Monday.  These higher PWAT values are in indicator of possible heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmospheric column.

Here is the PWAT animation for Saturday into Tuesday morning.  You can see the cold front sweep through the region Monday and Monday night.  The PWAT values quickly drop off behind the front.

Time stamp located in the upper left portion of this animation

The August forecast has been updated. 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Illinois/Ohio Valley Video Update

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
• NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
• Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
• Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
• Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
• and more!

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

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You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.