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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some storms moving in again from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-50% northern counties. Less chance near the KY/TN border. Better chances over northern parts of the region. Southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Perhaps parts of southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday – Becoming cloudy from the north. A chance for showers and thunderstorms moving in from the north and west. Precipitation would move south/southeast.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s where clouds and precipitation occur. Perhaps some lower 90’s far southern counties where the sun comes out. Cloud cover will play a big part in Sunday’s temperature forecast
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars on Sunday. Could be some storms around.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but I will monitor
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly and southeasterly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Monday – Quite a bit of sun and warm. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Monday night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A slight chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. The main forecast concern will be scattered storms from time to time. Placement and timing of precipitation chances.
2. Warm and humid
A disturbance is forecast to move into our region on Sunday morning. This disturbance will be associated with showers and thunderstorms over parts of eastern Missouri and central Illinois. The precipitation is forecast to move southeast.
Confidence is once again low as to how far south and east the storms will last. If the storms can hold together then some locally heavy rain will be possible over at least parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Bottom line for the next 48 hours is that there are some disturbances moving into the region from the north and west. These disturbances could help pop a few storms in the region. Storms that do form would produce heavy rain and lightning. Small severe weather risk. Risk is not zero, but it isn’t great.
Monitor radars if you have outdoor plans. It will likely remain dry most of the time.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. August will likely bring quite a few days with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitaton
Our northwest flow is about to return and perhaps in a big way. Northwest flow means below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Just like most of July. Yes, it was hot at times in July, but much of the month recorded below normal temperatures for daytime highs. The overnight lows skewed the numbers a bit. And, that was because of all of the moisture in the ground!
At one time it appeared we would have to deal with heat around the first part of August. Appears that will be this weekend into the early part of next week. So, shifted it a week earlier vs initial thoughts a month ago.
Check out the GFS for August. Wow, is all I can say. Look at the jet diving south and east into our region.
GFS is not my favorite model in the world. It often times does not have a clue. Actually ranks on the bottom of my choices when it comes to models.
With that said, it does have some support from other data sets. So, I will show you what it has come up with for the first part of August.
Northwest flow.
Images are from wright-weather.com
The colors represent wind speed. Red colors are higher wind speeds. See how the winds aloft dive in from the northwest?
The above image is for August 1st!
The below image is for August 4th. If this occurs then we can expect some heavy thunderstorm chances from time to time, as well. MCS season isn’t over, apparently. MCS’s are large thunderstorm complexes.
Then the image below is for August 5th
Then the image below is for August 8th
then the image below is for August 9th
Let’s take a look at some weatherbell.com maps for temperature anomalies for the first part of August
This first map is for July 30th through August 4th. You can see that temperatures should average below normal (once all the days are added together).
Then for August 1st through August 6th. You can see the cool is weighted past the July 30th time frame. More into August.
And, moving even further ahead. Check out these numbers. Much of August could end up below normal in the temperature department. Images are from weatherbell.com
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Low confidence on weekend rainfall. IF storms can develop then they would move in from the north and west. Rainfall amounts would vary greatly. Some places will not pick up any measurable rainfall.
Perhaps 0.25″-1.00″ if a complex of storms does move south into our region. Locally heavy amounts.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE/TWO for Saturday night into Monday
Sunday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Monday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Tuesday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Main concern continues to be the threat for thunderstorms. An unsettled pattern. We will also have to deal with heat and humidity. Cloud cover might help keep temperatures down a bit.
Lower than normal confidence in the overall forecast for the next 48 hours.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
