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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday – A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a few storms moving in from the north. Best chances for rain and storms today will be our northern counties in southeast Missouri and northwest counties of southern Illinois. Lesser chances further south and east.
Temperatures: Highs around 90-93 degrees.
Winds: Light winds. Southwest at times at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars because we may have a storm complex move into the region from the north. Lower than normal confidence on this happening.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% north and west.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some storms moving in again from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-50% northern counties. Less chance near the KY/TN border. Better chances over northern parts of the region. Southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Perhaps parts of southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but I will monitor
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy. A chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly and southeasterly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Monday – Quite a bit of sun and warm. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorms over the weekend? Low confidence forecast
2. Warm and humid weekend
The main concern for the weekend will be little pulses of energy moving down from the north. This little upper level disturbances could trigger thunderstorms.
To be honest, I am just not sure how far south these complexes can push. Models are having a difficult time resolving the end solution.
This is the wind flow
My gut feeling on this forecast is the storms will make it into at least the northern portions of our region. Parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. South of there, I am just not sure they survive. There will be some mid level warming (CAP) in place, as well.
One disturbance could move into our northern counties on Saturday late morning and afternoon. It would push in from northeast Missouri and central Illinois. Diving southward. If this happens then clouds would keep temperatures down a bit. Also there would be locally heavy rain.
Best advice is to monitor updates and radars. If you have outdoor plans over far southeast Missouri and western Kentucky then odds are that it will be mostly dry. Northern half of the region…confidence is lower.
Highs will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s through the period.
Saturday high temperature map
Sunday temperature map
August will likely start out with below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. Imagine that. Par for the course.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Low confidence on weekend rainfall. Northern half of the region could pick up some thunderstorms with 0.25″-1.00″ of rain possible. But, again…low confidence on this part of the forecast.
WPC rainfall forecast. Broad-brushed. Locally heavy rain is always a good bet with any thunderstorms.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE for Friday night into Sunday.
Saturday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Sunday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Monday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Main concern might end up being some thunderstorms moving in from the north on Saturday into Sunday night. Locally heavy rain and lightning would be possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
