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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. A few storms possible in the area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars from time to time
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Friday – Partly cloudy. A small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds perhaps becoming more southerly at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some storms are possible. Monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Friday night – Partly cloudy. Isolated storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Saturday – Partly cloudy. A chance for storms moving in from the north. Locally heavy rain IF that does occur.
Temperatures: Highs around 90 degrees.
Winds: Light winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the radars if this complex of storms does move south.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy. Perhaps some storms moving in from the north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Light southerly winds
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-50% northern counties. Less chance near the KY/TN border. Better chances over northern parts of the region. Southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Perhaps parts of southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the 90’s
Winds: Southerly and southwesterly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is LOW
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but I will monitor
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thursday night into Friday night appear more dry than wet. Scattered storms here and there, but not widespread in nature.
2. Warmer weekend
We are going to start to warm up a bit on Friday into the weekend. Expect to see some 90’s on Saturday and Sunday.
Did you know that more than half of the month has delivered at or below normal highs? It might have been higher had it not been for some milder nights because of all of the moisture in the ground.
Here is the chart for Paducah, KY and Carbondale, IL
The blue indicates a day when temperatures were at or below normal. I think the perception has been that it was warmer than this.
And Carbondale
My July forecast was for below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall. So far that has worked out fairly well. Rainfall has been extreme in some cases. Some spots in western Kentucky have picked up more than a foot of rain. Yeesh!
Check out this gauge on the Ohio River located in Paducah, Kentucky. Nearly 14″ of rain so far this far. Incredible.
Weekend weather…
There is one issue that will need to be monitored. A front will be positioned near our region over the weekend. Disturbances diving down from the north could spark occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. They would likely move from north to south.
The thinking right now is that the best chances would be over our western and northern counties. Perhaps parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. My confidence is low on the placement of the potential precipitation. For that matter, my confidence is low on the precipitation even making it this far south.
If these thunderstorm complexes do form then heavy rain could occur. Low confidence on the weekend forecast. Saturday into Sunday night/Monday.
Some of the data pops showers and thunderstorms on Saturday evening over southeast Missouri. Low confidence
You can see that here on this graphic. The colors represent rain. Again, low confidence on precipitation for Saturday afternoon and night. If it does occur it would probably be over southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Let me show you something. You won’t see this again for a long time. That would be my guess. This is the rainfall for the past 21 days. This is July, folks. Not known for our wet season. It has been on and off all month. Repeated rain events.
Images are from weatherbell.com Click image for a larger view
Temperatures will be at or above normal on Friday into Sunday. If we have more clouds than anticipated then temperatures would be a bit lower. Keep that in mind.
Friday high temperature map
Saturday high temperature map
Sunday temperature map
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Overall the pattern might stay the same into August. Occasional bursts of heat. Northwest flow will bring unsettled weather from time to time, as well. Same pattern from June and July.
This is the time of the year when we typically settle into a warm/hot and humid pattern. No much fanfare. The jet stream is weakening and moving north.
That would be the typical August. We will have to see if this pattern will just continue right on through August. There are signs that it will.
If so then more heavy rain would be possible.
Right now it appears the beginning of next week will be warm/hot and muggy. There are signs that we return to northwest flow around the middle and end of next week. That would mean more unsettled weather. Still early to make a call on that subject.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
For now the probability for rain and storms from Thursday night into Sunday appears scattered. There is one caveat and that is that some models are bringing heavy rain and storms into parts of southwest Illinois and southeast Missouri on Saturday night. Confidence is low in this happening.
Monitor updates. I will keep an eye on it.
Otherwise, scattered popup storms could produce a few downpours. Typical for summer.
The WPC is seeing the same thing I am with these little systems coming in from the north over the weekend. I just don’t have much confidence as to how far south and west they will dive.
It is worth watching.
Here is the three day rainfall forecast. See how the precip comes in from the north? Heavier in Iowa and northern Missouri
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE for Thursday night through Friday.
Friday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Saturday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Sunday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Monday: Not expecting severe weather. I can’t rule out some scattered storms.
Not overly concerned about anything for Friday.
We will have at least a chance for some storms over the coming days. Outdoor events perhaps could check radars from time to time. Lightning would be the main concern. Heavy rain, as well.
There are a lot of questions surrounding the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. A couple of MCS complexes may move down from the north. These could cause some problems, if the models are right. Perhaps for northern and western counties. That would include southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Warm temperatures over the weekend. Highs near 90. Nothing extreme. But, muggy conditions might make it uncomfortable. Again, not extreme.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
