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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – A small chance for scattered thunderstorms over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Partly cloudy. Better chances for storms over southern Missouri, Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If the front is further south than anticipated then you can push the storms even further out of our area. Where storms occur they could be heavy
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for some showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Perhaps becoming northeast/east at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Wednesday night – A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Partly cloudy. Best chances for storms will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If the front is further south than anticipated then you can push the storms even further out of our area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Perhaps east/southeast at times at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Friday-Sunday might bring 20%-30% thunderstorm chances. A lot of the weekend forecast will be determined after I figure out where the front will end up.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Below normal temperatures for the next few days.
2. Watching for the potential of a thunderstorm complex on Wednesday and Thursday
Check out this photograph from near Zalma, Missouri on Monday evening. Quite the shelf clouds. Shelf clouds are formed as rain cooled air is pushed out in front of a storm. It bumps up against the warm and humid air…creating scenes like this. This does not always mean severe weather. Although, sometimes it does.
David Patterson took this photograph. Great shot, David.
Normal to below normal temperatures will be the rule on Wednesday into Thursday. Expect highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. If we pull off below normal temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday then that will add to the tally this month. It has felt warmer because of all the moisture in the ground. High dew points. But, the reality is that it has not actually been all that hot for our region. Paducah has yet to hit 95 degrees in July.
The main concern will be the placement of a front on Wednesday and Thursday. A couple of rounds of storms may occur along the front.
The models are keying in on one complex of storms moving across southern MO and northern AR on Wednesday and Wednesday evening. How fast east this will track will need to be monitored.
Of more concern, perhaps, is Thursday, as well. Models are hinting at training storms over our region. If this happens then heavy rain is a concern. Let’s keep an eye on this. We do not need more heavy rain in the region. But, that may very well occur.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. How about the weekend?
2. The high pressure ridge will make some attempt to build back in. But, how much?
Friday into Sunday should be mostly dry and warmer. Perhaps 20% thunderstorm chances. Highs will reach back into the 90’s. Heat index values may also climb.
A large and significant El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean. No two El Nino’s are alike. It will impact our regions weather over the coming six months. But, it is still too early to make a forecast as to how it will influence. This is something I will be studying over the coming weeks and months.
You will hear a lot about El Nino on the news.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Scattered storms on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Locally heavy downpours where storms occur. Perhaps the best chances over our southern counties.
Better chances area wide on Thursday.
Rainfall totals will continue to vary quite a bit over the region.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE/TWO for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Perhaps a TWO by Wednesday night or Thursday. Monitor updates.
Tuesday night into Wednesday: A few storms possible. Any storms that do pop up could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
I am watching for the potential of a complex of storms on Wednesday to move across southern Missouri. Also watching Thursday for a potential thunderstorm complex. These storm complexes typically produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Frequent lightning, as well.
Main concern over the coming days will be locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
Some disagreement among the models as to how much coverage there will be on Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Perhaps better chances on Wednesday over southern Missouri and then area wide on Thursday. Monitor updates.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
