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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Monday night – Thunderstorms likely. Some storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-80%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A small chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10 mph. Southern counties may still be in southwest winds at the surface. South of the front the winds will be different than north of the front, keep that in mind.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 10% north and 30% south (best chances over the Missouri Bootheel into the KY/TN border counties and southward)
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Tuesday night – A small chance for scattered thunderstorms. Partly cloudy. Best chances for storms will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If the front is further south than anticipated then you can push the storms even further out of our area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms, especially over southern Missouri. I am watching for a potential MCS coming out of southern Missouri Wednesday morning and afternoon. Low confidence on this happening, but keep it in mind. If that happens then heavy rain will be possible where it tracks. Again, check back for details as we move forward.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Perhaps becoming northeast/east at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Wednesday night – A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Partly cloudy. Best chances for storms will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If the front is further south than anticipated then you can push the storms even further out of our area.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. A good chance for some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s (below normal temperatures)
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph. Perhaps east/southeast at times at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Friday-Sunday might bring 20%-30% thunderstorm chances. A lot of the weekend forecast will be determined after I figure out where the front will end up.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. On and off storm chances into the work week
2. Locally heavy rainfall and below normal temperatures for most of the new week
3. The front will linger in our region. This will keep an unsettled look to the overall pattern.
Another round of heavy rain pushed through our region on Sunday night and Monday morning. Rainfall totals of 0.50-4″+ fell across the region. Large differences. But, that was the forecast. For pockets of flash flooding. And, that did occur.
Parts of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri picked up the heaviest totals. And, once again there were no flood advisories or warnings issued. Even though some places had problems. I tell you this so that you remember…it does not take an advisory or a warning to have problems. Flooded roadways can occur in portions of some counties without either an advisory or a warning. It is up to the National Weather Service to issue those kind of products.
Avoid flooded roadways, as always. Numerous people have been killed over the past month in flash flooding in the State of Kentucky alone.
We have been in this pattern for the last 2 months. It appears that it will continue into August. Periodic rounds of heat and then below normal temperatures with above normal rainfall.
Most of this week will bring below normal temperatures. We should start to heat back up towards the end of the week or weekend. This will depend on the placement of the stationary front. It is forecast to move back north later in the week.
Why do rainfall amounts vary so much during the summer months?
Rainfall amounts vary greatly because of slow moving thunderstorms and thunderstorm redevelopment over isolated areas.
Here are the estimated rainfall totals from Sunday night and Monday mornings event.
You can see the heaviest patches over parts of far southern Illinois and far southeast Missouri. Click the graphic for a larger view. This graphic does not include any rainfall after 11 am on Monday.
The red, pink, and white colors represent the heavier totals. You can see some 3-4″+ totals in far southeast Missouri. The purple and white are the heaviest. Also, some purple over southern Illinois.
On Monday night another round of heavy storms tracked through the region. Some places had high winds, as well. A number of watches and warnings were issued.
The second round dropped more heavy totals over the area. As of 12 am on Tuesday morning the rainfall totals looked like this on radar
Another widespread heavy rain event smacked the region. Par for the course this summer. Some places have picked up a foot of rain during July. Incredible.
That round of heavy storms moved east as of early Tuesday morning.
Tuesday into Tuesday night:
The cold front, that has brought a return to thunderstorm chances to our region, will stick around awhile. It will be meandering across our region through at least Thursday. At times the front will shunt southward. When this happens it will take the better shower and thunderstorm chances with it.
It appears that this will occur on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Perhaps into Wednesday. The front will be draped near our southern counties (along the KY/TN border). The further south it pushes the better off we are. Lower temperatures and less rain.
The front should return northward on Wednesday night or Thursday. This will enhance thunderstorm chances once again.
Any storms that form in this environment could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Many of you experience that on Sunday night and early Monday morning. A few of you told me the storms kept you awake.
It is literally the luck of the draw as to who ends up with the BIG rainfall totals. It is impossible to predict that. I can tell you that the pattern favors locally heavy rain. Then it is all a matter of where the storms form and where they train repeatedly.
The risk for severe thunderstorms won’t be zero, but it won’t be significant either. Perhaps the best chances for severe weather will be Monday afternoon and Monday night. Lesser chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. I will keep an eye on Thursday and Friday.
Did you know that 11 days in July have been at or below normal in the temperature department, so far this month! Paducah has not even reached 95 degrees in July. Perception and reality of July’s temperatures may not match!
See the extended forecast for the weekend details.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Front will linger into the week
2. The high pressure ridge will make some attempt to build back in. But, how much?
The front that will be causing our unsettled weather over the coming days will be slow to move. It is forecast to return northward on Wednesday night or Thursday. If we can push it far enough north then we will return to heat and high humidity levels. But, that is still a question mark. How soon it pushes north.
At one time it appeared the hottest weather of the summer would strike our region on Friday into Sunday of this week. A ridge of high pressure would solidly move back into our region. With each passing day the data has pushed the ridge of high pressure further and further west and southwest. The further southwest the ridge finds itself means the better our chances for staying in northwest flow. And, northwest flow means unsettled weather with frequent chances for precipitation.
A big question mark is left for this upcoming weekend. We will have below normal temperatures most of this week. But, by Friday into Sunday we should start to see temperature creep back up. Perhaps above the 90 degree mark. If so then heat index values would also be on the increase. Monitor updates.
Thunderstorm chances will be with us as long as we remain in the northwest flow.
Long range data shows this continuing into August.
If this continues into August then our heavy rain potential may stick around.
Let me show you the ridge for this coming weekend. Do you remember the maps the other day? They showed the ridge pretty much over our region. That spelled very hot weather.
But, look at what has happened. The ridge is further southwest. IF that happens then we could even stay in northwest flow aloft or semi-northwest flow aloft. That would keep at least some storm chances for the region over the weekend. Let’s watch it and see where the ridge ends up. All data is playing it further southwest.
Images are from wright-weather.com
The GFS forecast for temperatures over the coming 5-10 days
This first map from weatherbell.com is for the July 20th through July 25th time period. You can see mostly below normal temperatures in the blue. Green is well below normal.
Then this next map is for July 20th through July 30th. You can see some warmer yellow/orange colors edging in. That means that July 25th through the 30th might be a bit closer to normal vs the first 5 days of that time frame. We shall see. GFS is not the best model in the world. It totally missed this weeks forecast and for that matter most of this summer’s forecast.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall totals will vary greatly over the coming 5-7 days.
From Monday night into Friday we should pick up another 0.50″-2.00″ of rain with pockets of 3-5″ of rain in isolated areas. Same song and dance as the last 2 months. Locally heavy rain. I should make a song up about locally heavy rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is TWO for Monday night into Tuesday. A few storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts.
Monday night into Tuesday: Thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the heaviest storms. Isolated severe weather risk. Damaging wind being the main concern. Torrential rainfall in a few spots could cause flash flooding concerns. Monitor updates as we move through the week.
My main concern over the coming week is going to be slow moving thunderstorms that produce torrential downpours. The big question, as always, is where.
Flash flooding is always a concern in a pattern like this.
A few storms could also produce damaging wind gusts over the coming days.
And, as always…lightning is a concern for outdoor events. Use care.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
