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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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Keep in mind that thunderstorms that form in this heat and humidity could produce strong winds, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and dime size hail. Most areas will remain dry.
July 20, 2016
Sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:34 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Wednesday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. A chance for a few thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? If a storm pops up then wet roadways and lightning. Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 21, 2016
Thursday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered intense thunderstorms again possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-110 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds southerly at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 22, 2016
Friday – Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered intense thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-112 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Friday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 23, 2016
Saturday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A few scattered intense thunderstorms again possible. Typical summer pattern.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 94-98 degree range. Heat Index 102-110 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Warm. Humid. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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July 24, 2016
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A few intense thunderstorms again possible. Typical summer pattern.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 92-96 degree range. Heat Index 102-108 degrees. Locally higher.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated wind damage reports possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind the high heat index values.
Sunrise will be at 5:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:10 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High. Lower if clouds are more prevalent.
Moonrise will be at 9:22 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:36 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild. Humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 76-82 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Heat wave
- Scattered locally heavy storms
The main story over the coming days will be the summer heat wave. Not unusual for our region. It is, however, dangerous. Every year our region experiences a rise in heat related illnesses during the summer months. Don’t forget to check on the elderly. They don’t always like to use electricity. They don’t always like to use air conditioning. Make sure they at least have a fan. Keep in mind that overnight lows will be warm, as well. It will be difficult to cool down non-air condition buildings. Let’s make sure everyone stays safe.
We will continue to deal with intense thunderstorms dotting radar. Coverage has been a little more than anticipated this week. Any storms that form could produce frequent lightning, strong winds, pea to dime size hail, and very heavy rain. Rainfall totals of one inch in thirty minutes will be possible. Avoid flooded roadways. Brief flash flooding may occur in isolated areas.
Keep in mind, the storms over the past few weeks have produced numerous down bursts. Down burst winds don’t last long. They can reach speeds of 50 mph or more. They can cause damage. They are very hard to warn on. By the time a warning is issued the storm is almost over.
Heat index values over the coming days will range from 100 to 110 degrees.
Know the signs of heat related illnesses.
Daily high temperatures will range from 92 to 98 degrees. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and showers/storms. Where clouds and storms prevail you can expect temperatures in the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Once the sun comes back out the temperature will pop back to 90 or above.
Expect a daily chance for a few popup heavy thunderstorms. CAPE (energy) values will be high. Storms could produce isolated damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and dime size hail.
I continue to watch next week for the heat ridge to break down and move further southwest. If that happens then we could have a better chance for precipitation and lower temperatures.
Let me show you the 500 mb height map. This is about 18,000′ aloft. I am showing you the ridges and troughs. Ridges are hot and troughs are unsettled/cooler. Trough would also mean northwest flow.
Example
A heat ridge is always going to sizzle our region. During the summer months the heat ridge will build in from the southwest or southeast. When the ridge is centered over our region we have peak temperatures.
This heat ridge is centered to our west. We are still baking. Typical summer heat, but hot.
Here is the current 500 mb map. There is the center of the ridge. The closed black line with the red arrows around it. That is the core of the heat.
Now, watch what happens next week. We flatten out. This is called zonal flow. We have a bit of a ridge early next week, but more zonal. Zonal means the flow is west to east.
Towards the end of next week we might have a strong cold front with heavy thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored. Not that we need a cold front for heavy storms. We have had plenty of heavy storms without fronts. This trough, the dip in the jet stream, could mean a bit more organized storms. Possible severe weather risks in the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Long way off. Confidence is, of course, low. I am and have been monitoring it for awhile.
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday high temperature map.
Thursday heat index values are going to be high. Expect heat index values above 100 degrees.
Friday morning low temperature map
Wednesday afternoon high temperature map. Temperatures on Tuesday might not be quite this hot. It will depend on cloud cover.
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night and Thursday: A few thunderstorms possible. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and isolated damaging wind possible.
Thursday night through Sunday: Scattered thunderstorm risk. If a storm were to form then it would be intense with gusty winds, frequent lightning, a downpour of rain, and dime size hail.
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No major changes in this update. Hot weather in the charts. I did increase rain probabilities a bit.
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I am concerned about hot weather this week. Don’t forget to change the water bowls for the pets. Expect daily highs into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms could produce high winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
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Monitor radars for locally intense thunderstorms.
Take care of yourself in the outdoor heat. Don’t forget the outdoor pets. Freshen the water bowl a couple of times each day.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Isolated storms are possible over the coming days. A few spots could pick up 1/2″-1″ of rain. Slow moving storms can produce heavier totals. Again, most areas will remain dry.
Rainfall rates of 1-3″ per hour can be expected in the heaviest thunderstorms. Typical for summer.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
