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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Sunday night – Some increase in clouds. Thunderstorm chances increasing from the north and northwest. Locally heavy rain possible over our northern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Evening gusts to 15 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radar trends
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for severe weather
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% south and 40%-60% northern counties of SE MO and southern IL. Bootheel into far SE MO and western Kentucky chances will be the 30% or so.
What impact is expected? If storms do form the brief heavy rain and lightning. Small severe weather risk.
Monday – Partly cloudy to patches of mostly cloudy with a chance for some thunderstorms. Not as hot as recent days. Some storms could be strong. Locally heavy rain likely with any storms that form.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s where clouds are thickest and 90’s were the sun sticks around for awhile.
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Monday night – Thunderstorms possible. Some storms could be heavy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Isolated severe thunderstorms possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A chance for thunderstorms. Best chances will be our southern counties.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10 mph for those north of the front. If you are south of the front then southwest and west winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Tuesday night – A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Partly cloudy. Best chances for storms will be over the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. If the front is further south than anticipated then you can push the storms even further out of our area.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph. For those southern counties in the region we may see winds out of the west/southwest. If you are south of the front winds would be different than north of the front.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not sure, yet. Monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Training storms can produce excessive rainfall totals.
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the 80’s
Winds: Variable winds at 10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-40%
What impact is expected? Thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase.
2. Will some of the storms produce torrential downpours with some flash flooding, again?
3. The cold front may linger longer than earlier expected. That means thunderstorm chances could last well into the new work week.
We have a cold front approaching from the north over the coming 48 hours. This front will likely stall out over our region towards the middle of the week. Some data pushes the front south into Arkansas and Tennessee. Then the front returns on Wednesday and Thursday.
Either way, showers and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase over the coming next 2-4 days.
As always, some of the thunderstorms could produce very heavy rainfall totals. Data is mixed as to exactly where this will occur. Typically this is not something that can be forecast. Thunderstorms can train over the same areas and produce 1-3″ of rain per hour. But, will that happen this time around? It has happened with almost every front since early June.
Wind fields this week are not overly impressive. This leads to lower confidence as to whether we will have a lot of problems from thunderstorm complexes. Questionable on how much rain will fall. If wind fields were stronger aloft then I would be a bit more concerned. With that said, monitor the latest updates.
I am always leery of fronts in June-Augusts. I have witnessed many flash flooding events with a pattern such as this. Lot of moisture content in the atmosphere. Does not take much thunderstorm activity to cause problems.
Temperatures won’t be as hot on Monday into Thursday. This is because of cloud cover from time to time and precipitation. Plus, the front should move through our region and switch our winds to the west/northwest.
The one caveat on this would be Monday. Some debate as to how much cloud cover we will experience on Monday. Less clouds would mean higher temperatures. Something to consider.
The chances for storms will vary across the region this week. Best chances for on Tuesday and Wednesday might shift a bit south and east. Maybe the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Then the storm chances could increase everyone as the cold front moves back north as a warm front around Wednesday night into Thursday.
Bottom line is the chances will vary as the front moves through the region. The speed of the front will determine whether some areas receive repeated rainfall events.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Monitoring the upcoming week for periodic thunderstorm chances.
2. Flash flooding in a few spots can’t be ruled out. Same as the past 8 weeks for the region. Hit and miss on the big totals.
3. Long range models indicate a real battle between the trough and the ridge of high pressure. Trough would bring cooler than normal weather and heavy rain. Ridge would bring hot and humid.
The theme of the past 2 months has been a battle between the ridge of high pressure and the trough of low pressure (NW flow).
If you read the blog then you will already know this. The ridge typically brings hot and humid conditions to our region (in the summer). The trough will bring NW flow aloft. That means frequent disturbances moving through the region. These disturbances were responsible for 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10″ of rain during the early part of July over our local counties. Same in June for parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
This is also why the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers are high. Some places remain well above flood stage. Major flooding continues in parts of the Ohio and Missouri Valley. Summer? Not typical.
This was the summer forecast. A battle between the ridge and the northwest flow. And, above normal precipitation.
Half of July has actually been below normal in the temperature department. Yes, you have had a few days with hot temperatures (but, it is the middle of summer). More than anything it has been humid. This is partly because of the tremendous rainfall totals during the early part of the month.
Did you know the highest temperature recorded at Paducah in July was 95 degrees? That is only a few degrees above normal! There is nothing extreme about a few degrees above normal in the temperature department. Again, typical July weather.
But, in actuality the heat is always blown out of proportion by the media. I don’t know why this is. It is actually a complaint of some meteorologists. The cooler than normal temperatures don’t make the news. But, they find drama in reporting how hot the temperature is in your car when the windows are rolled up while sitting on the side of a volcano in the middle of July. Okay, I made up the volcano part. But, the rest is true.
Anyway, I don’t have to tell you how the media hypes everything. Most of you are smart enough to know this already.
The coming weeks will be interesting. All of the models are now showing more and more of a NW flow pattern setting up for our region. A few days ago they were strongly suggesting the heat ridge would win. But, there are signals that are saying…slow down slow down. Maybe not.
If the NW flow wins then we will sit on the edge of the heat ridge. If that happens then very heavy rain could fall where thunderstorms train repeatedly. This happened in Indiana a couple of nights ago. Ton of flash flood warnings. This also happened earlier in the week over Indiana and eastern Kentucky. And, we all know the outcome of that event.
This will need to be monitored. I am not at all confident how the next 2 weeks play out. Will the trough win or the ridge. Perhaps both.
The pattern has been for the ridge to win out for a few days and then the trough come back in. This is what is going to happen Monday through Thursday of this week. We had a few hot days and now the trough returns with precipitation chances.
It is not a typical summer pattern.
Let’s keep an eye on Dolores (out in the Pacific). Where will this moisture go? Right now it appears to be heading towards California. But, I will keep an eye on it. Sometimes these systems can feed moisture into the Central United States. We saw that happen a month or so ago.
The system itself will break apart, of course. But, the moisture can certainly still find its way into the Central United States.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall forecast for Monday through Wednesday. We will have to watch for heavier totals if a complex of storms does end up forming and tracking across our region.
This is broad-brushed and certainly higher totals could occur.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is TWO for Sunday night through Tuesday. A few storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts.
Sunday night into Tuesday: Thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds with the heaviest storms. Isolated severe weather risk. Damaging wind being the main concern. Torrential rainfall in a few spots could cause flash flooding concerns. Monitor updates as we move through the week.
My main concern over the coming week is going to be slow moving thunderstorms that produce torrential downpours. The big question, as always, is where.
With a pattern like this it is very difficult to predict where the heaviest rain will fall. Someone, over the coming 5-7 days, will end up with more than 3″ of rain. How much over 3″ of rain is the question.
This is the same pattern we had to deal with over the past 2 months. Some places ended up with buckets of rain.
Flash flooding is always a concern in a pattern like this.
A few storms could also produce damaging wind gusts over the coming days.
And, as always…lightning is a concern for outdoor events. Use care.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
