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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Tuesday night – A few evening thunderstorms. Muggy and humid. Summer air.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 70’s
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Not expecting severe weather on Tuesday night.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
What impact is expected? Lightning and brief heavy downpours. Gusty winds near storms.
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun. Warm, but perhaps not as hot as recent days. Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs from 85 to 90 degrees.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% chance
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny sky conditions, not as humid as earlier in the week.
Temperatures: Highs mostly in the 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: Light and variable winds at 5 mph. Mostly out of the northeast and east. Becoming southeast.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Thursday night – Mostly clear and a little warmer.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Mostly sunny and hot. More humid. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs into the 90’s.
Winds: Becoming south and southwest at 5-10 mph perhaps a gust to 15 mph on lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected?
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? Outdoor heat index values will be above 100 degrees. Use care.
Friday night – Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday – Mostly sunny to partly cloudy at times. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat index values.
Temperatures: Highs into the 90’s with heat index values above 100 degrees.
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph on area lakes.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Saturday night – Mostly clear. Warm. Muggy.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and muggy. Excessive heat. Heat index values above 100 degrees.
Temperatures: Highs well into the middle and upper 90’s. Heat index values of 100 to 110 degrees
Winds: West and Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None, unless an isolated storm forms. Then lightning and heavy rain.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Calm weather on Wednesday and Thursday
2. Hot weekend with heat index values back above 100 degrees
Well, it has been an “on-edge” week for meteorologists. Powerful and damaging storms swept across the Ohio Valley on Monday night into Tuesday. You have probably witnessed the flash flood damage in eastern Kentucky on the local and national news. Several people perished in flooding.
Widespread wind damage occurred on Monday and Monday night from northern and central Illinois into Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky.
On Tuesday powerful storms ripped through southern Missouri into northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee. Winds of 80 mph+ were reported at several stations. Needless to say people will be cleaning up for awhile.
Thankfully our region was spared both severe weather outbreaks. It was a close call. Luck of the draw with the placement of the boundary. Not the best of luck for others.
The good news for Wednesday and Thursday is that temperatures will only reach into the 80’s and it won’t be as humid. Enjoy!
Heat returns by Friday into Sunday with heat index values above 100. It won’t be pleasant this weekend.
Let’s look at how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be over the coming days. Wednesday and Thursday will be close to normal. A little below normal. Friday into the weekend will be above normal.
Normal high temperatures are around 89 degrees
Normal low temperatures are around 68 degrees
Wednesday the map above
Thursday is the map below
Then Friday and Saturday…woosh we warm back up
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. Looking ahead to next week
The big question is going to be how long will the hot weather last. We had a GREAT run of below normal temperatures at the beginning of the month. But, that is coming to an end again on Friday. Temperatures will rise into the 90’s and that will last until at least Sunday. Maybe longer. Speaking of longer, let’s look ahead
The weekend should be dry and hot. Muggy. High heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees. Use care outside.
It does appear a new cold front might dip into our region on Monday into Tuesday. This front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still several days to monitor. As always, locally heavy rain is possible with storms.
Temperatures might end up below normal on Monday and Tuesday (if the front is near the region). Then we might bounce between above and below normal (near normal) temperatures for most of next week.
The only issue would be if the ridge pops fully back into our region. Then we heat up. When the ridge pushes into the region we can expect widespread 90’s with very muggy air. Some signs of that happening again late next week. Low confidence.
Check out the GFS temperature forecast for next Wednesday into next weekend. GFS is not my favorite model, by the way. But, we will give it a shot at the temperatures next week.
Images are from wright-weather.com
This is for Tuesday. The purple colors represent solid 90’s. Dark red is mostly 80’s, but close to 90.
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
7 Day Rainfall Forecast
WPC map
Notice how the storm track has shifted to the north and east a bit?
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorms threat level is ONE on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps a 10% chance for a storm. Otherwise, dry and pleasant weather.
Wednesday into Sunday: No severe weather anticipated.
Rivers are high in many places.
No concerns today and tomorrow.
Heat returns on Friday into Sunday with heat index numbers of 100+
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
