Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

January 8, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Jan 8, 2021Daily ForecastComments Off on January 8, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The entire blog is updated after 3 PM each day.  Some adjustments may be made during the morning hours. 

The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.

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Friday to Friday

1.  Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  Unlikely.

2. Is lightning in the forecast?   No.

3.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  No.

* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater,  1″ hail or larger,  and/or tornadoes

4.  Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

6.  Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero?  No.

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Medical leave.
 
On Thursday, January 7th, I woke up blind in one eye.
 
I spent most of Thursday at the hospital. It appears that my retina detached.
 
While they were examining my right eye, they discovered some issues with my left eye.
 
I will be having surgery this coming Monday.
 
They will use general anesthesia and then operate on both eyes.
 
I will then have to lie still for seven days. I will have to be on my left side with only ten minute breaks every hour.
 
During this period of time, I won’t be able to update certain weather products.
 
Some weather products will still go out on the app. That will include the videos and a general weather summary.
 
Instead of a detailed daily forecast, there will be a weather summary (on the app). The summary will let you know if there are any weather concerns.
 
Thankfully, the weather pattern is quiet. I don’t expect any major winter storms or severe weather events.
 
I will be on medical leave from Monday, January 11th through Tuesday, January 12th.
 
I appreciate your prayers and understanding.

January 8, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.  A flurry or sprinkle.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40°    SE MO 34° to 38°    South IL  34° to 38°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 38°    West KY 34° to 38°    NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 26° to 30°     SE  MO  24° to 28°     South IL  24° to 28°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28°    West KY 24° to 28°     NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:13 AM
Moonset:  1:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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January 9, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40°    SE MO 34° to 38°    South IL  34° to 38°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  34° to 38°    West KY 34° to 38°    NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel 24° to 28°     SE  MO  22° to 25°     South IL  22° to 25°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26°    West KY 24° to 28°     NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:26 AM
Moonset:  1:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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January 10, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44°    SE MO 36° to 42°    South IL  36° to 42°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  38° to 42°    West KY 38° to 42°    NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 33° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:10 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26°     SE  MO  22° to 24°     South IL  22° to 24°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 23° to 26°    West KY 23° to 26°     NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: North 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:37 AM
Moonset:  2:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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January 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low Confidence
Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  I will watch a southern system that could brush southern Missouri and then along and south of the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.  Perhaps a rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40°    SE MO 36° to 40°    South IL  36° to 40°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  40° to 42°    West KY 40° to 44°    NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 24° to 28°     SE  MO  22° to 24°     South IL  22° to 24°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 26°    West KY 24° to 26°     NW TN 24° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:47 AM
Moonset:  3:27 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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January 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46°    SE MO 44° to 46°    South IL  43° to 46°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  43° to 46°    West KY 43° to 46°    NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30°     SE  MO  25° to 30°     South IL  24° to 28°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30°    West KY 24° to 28°     NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:51 AM
Moonset:  4:28 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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January 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52°    SE MO 45° to 50°    South IL  45° to 50°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  45° to 50°    West KY 45° to 50°    NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34°     SE  MO  28° to 32°     South IL  28° to 32°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32°    West KY 28° to 32°     NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:46 AM
Moonset:  5:34 PM
The phase of the moon: New

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January 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54°    SE MO 50° to 52°    South IL  50° to 52°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  48° to 52°    West KY 50° to 54°    NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:01 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35°     SE  MO  30° to 34°     South IL  30° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34°    West KY 30° to 34°     NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:31 AM
Moonset:  6:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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January 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50°    SE MO 45° to 50°    South IL  45° to 50°   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  45° to 50°    West KY 45° to 50°    NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 5:02 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 35°     SE  MO  30° to 34°     South IL  30° to 34°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34°    West KY 30° to 34°     NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 32°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:10 AM
Moonset:  7:46 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns). 

Please refer to the long range video until that time.

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Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.


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Today through January 20th.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map.  Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

 

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The images below are from the WPC.  Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast.  I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:

No concerns.

Beau’s Weather Talk App by the Fire Horn.  Download it.  Install it.  It is for subscribers.  Not a subscriber?  Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome

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Weather Discussion

    1.  Calm weather.
    2.  No extremes in the short-range forecast.

 

We remain under a fairly calm weather pattern.  This is even more true since it is January.  We usually have active weather.  The last few months have been quiet.

It will be chilly over the next couple of days.  Nothing extreme, but it will feel wintry.  Some gusty wind from time to time, as well.

We also have to deal with clouds into the weekend.  A small chance of sprinkles or flurries.  Nothing significant.

No significant weather in the charts in the long range, either.

There will be another southern system pass through the region Monday and Tuesday.  It appears the low will be far enough south that our only concern will be additional clouds.

I will keep an eye on southern Missouri and along and south of the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  Perhaps a light shower or snow shower.

Otherwise, calm weather.








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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.






What should I take from these?


    

  1.  The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
    2. 

  2.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
    3. 

  3.  The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
    4. 



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What am I looking at? 

You are looking at different models.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.  All models are wrong.  Some are more wrong than others.  Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.


I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation.  If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.


You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.


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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.




This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.




Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.






 




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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.




No precip




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This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.






This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.


Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.


No precip


.No precip


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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.




This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.


Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.


No precip


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This next animation is the GFS American Model.




This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.


Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.




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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.




This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region.  It is a future-cast radar.


Time-stamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.




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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.




Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees.


Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″


Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures.  Red is much above average.  Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures.  Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.










































This outlook covers  January 8th through January 14th


Click on the image to expand it.










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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.










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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees




Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees


Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″

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This outlook covers  January 15th through January 21st


Click on the image to expand it.




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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.




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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY


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Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below average

BN= Below average

M/BN = Much below average

AN = Above average

M/AN = Much above average

E/AN = Extremely above average


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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 24 degrees


Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″


This outlook covers January  22nd through February 4th




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Precipitation outlook






























































































































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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION


Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.


THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING.  DURING THE GROWING SEASON.


 




Winter Outlook




Click to enlarge it.  Then, you can read it better.




December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)




December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)




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E/BN extremely below normal.

M/BN is much below normal

EC  equal chances

AN above normal

M/AN much above normal

E/AN extremely above normal.


January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)




January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)




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E/BN extremely below normal.

M/BN is much below normal

EC  equal chances

AN above normal

M/AN much above normal

E/AN extremely above normal.


February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)




February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)




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And the preliminary March outlooks


Temperature departures




Precipitation






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Great news!  The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.


These are bonus videos for subscribers.


The app is for subscribers.  Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk






Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.


The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.




Apple users click here




Android users click here


























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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.


You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.


If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.


Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com




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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.


Storm Prediction Center. Click here.


Weather Prediction Center. Click here.






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Live lightning data: Click here.


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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.


GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.




College of Dupage satellites. Click here


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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.


Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.














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2016-11-19_11-50-24


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About Author

		

					

		

			
		
			
Beau Dodson is the meteorologist for the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and for WeatherTalk LLC.  His forecasts cover portions of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and extreme southeast Missouri.  He is also the President of the Shadow Angel Foundation.

		

	

		
	
	

		
		
	

	
	
	
			



	
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