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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Wednesday – TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. Partly cloudy with a chance for early morning snow showers. Falling temperatures through the day. Bitterly cold wind chills. Cold. Well below normal temperatures. High temperatures will be in the teens. Wind chills of 0 to 10 below zero. Dangerous wind chill values for those working outdoors, elderly, and children.
Wednesday night – Clearing with pipe busting cold. Low temperatures will be -4 to 6 above across the region. North winds at 10-15 mph and gusty at times. Winds becoming north at 5 mph late. Wind chills below zero.
Thursday – Partly cloudy and cold. Not as cold as Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 20’s. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and cold. Low temperatures in the teens. Southwest winds at 10 mph.
Friday – Partly cloudy with winter cold. High temperatures will be in the 20’s. West winds becoming northwest at 10-15 mph.
Click for larger view
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days.
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Weather Headlines
- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills this week
- Some early morning snow showers possible today
- Temperatures will fall throughout today into this afternoon
- Possibly some precipitation later this weekend into early next week
Well, where do you think the jet stream is coming from today? If you guessed from the northwest then you would be correct! Cold air is pouring into our region. Arctic air.
A bitterly cold air mass has moved into our region. This is true arctic air. Near record high pressure will occur today into Thursday. That means your barometer will have readings on it that you may have never seen before. Very high barometer readings.
That high pressure will be responsible for the bitterly cold air that will settle into the region today into Thursday.
By this afternoon some of our local counties will already see temperatures in the single digits! That is quite rare without snow on the ground. About as cold as it gets without snow on the ground.
Temperatures will into the -5 to 6 above range tonight across southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Bitterly cold wind chills will also come into play today and this evening. Winds chills below -10 will occur across much of the area.
How many degrees BELOW normal will we be today and tonight?
THESE ARE NOT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS…these maps show you how many degrees BELOW normal we will be. WAY WAY WAY below normal!
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 43°
Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26°
And low departures
Another view of that map – how many degrees below normal will temperature be this evening at 6 pm. These are just incredible anomalies. Scale is on the right hand side of the image. If we had snow on the ground then we would likely see temperatures in the -5 to -12 range. Very impressive.
Click image for a larger view.
Image is from www.weatherbell.com
Frost bite will be a concern for those who have to be outdoors for extended periods of time. Obviously children at bus stops and who have to walk to school would have some problems if not properly protected from the cold.
I will re-post the previous message from Monday’s blog.
This message is most pertinent to those with poorly protected water pipes
Historically in our region an event like this causes…
1. Deaths
2. An increase in home and business fires
4. Risk of frostbite to children, elderly, and those working outdoors
5. Hundreds of thousands of dollars in damage to water pipes/water damage/fire damage
6. Those of you who had damage from the cold over the last couple of years will likely want to make sure you are prepared for this cold weather event.
Tips…
— Check on elderly residents during this upcoming cold weather event
— Make sure you have followed advice on protecting your home and businesses from busted pipe and water damage
— Bring in pets and protect outdoor animals
— Use common sense when it comes to utilizing heating sources for your home and businesses.
Pipe busting cold temperatures are forecast by Thursday morning. Area residents are encouraged to double check their precautionary measures to prevent damage to homes and businesses.
Let’s remember the elderly, as well during this time. Historically events like this claim lives and cause pipe damage.
Leading up to the coldest night we will experience temperatures in the teens on Tuesday night and high temperatures only in the teens on Wednesday. This will set the stage for the extreme cold on Wednesday night.
Assuming the current forecast numbers are correct, I am forecasting -2 to 6 above temperature readings over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The below zero readings are most likely from Carbondale, Illinois to Shawneetown, Illinois northward.
The low single digits readings are likely from there southward and over western Kentucky.
Here is some advice to help protect your homes and businesses. I grabbed some of these tips from online sources.
Bring in those pets who are not used to extreme temperatures and check on people who are susceptible to the extreme cold.
Make sure smoke and carbon monoxide detectors are installed and working.
Don’t use stoves, ovens or grills as sources of heat. Use extreme caution with space heaters, and fireplaces.
Protect your pipes and let faucets drip, even at a trickle, in order to prevent them from freezing. You can also keep cabinet doors open near pipes to allow warm air to circulate around them.
The main story will be the cold weather.
Dangerous wind chill values are possible on Wednesday/Wednesday evening. These readings can cause frostbite to exposed skin in a very short time span.
These numbers are WIND CHILLS (not temperatures)
Click for large view
No changes in the cold forecast. .
Bitterly cold air over the coming 48-72 hours.
Dangerous wind chills on Wednesday into Thursday morning could cause frost bite to exposed skin. Children at bus stops would be vulnerable to frost bite.
Some morning snow showers will be possible.
The wild card tells you where the most uncertainty is in the current forecast.
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card today will be just how low temperatures will fall tonight. Some places over southern Illinois will likely experience readings below zero. Much of western Kentucky should be in the 0 to 5 above range. We will just have to wait and see what the final readings are. Not that anybody cares whether it is 5 below or 5 above. All the same difference. COLD!
Second wild card will be morning snow showers. Can’t rule out some spots picking up light accumulations.
Will I need to take action?
Protecting your water pipes.
Care should be used if children have to be outdoors on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Bus stops/other.
Sensitive outdoor animals may have problems with this cold snap.
How much rain should this system produce over our region?
A snow shower possible this morning. Otherwise dry conditions through Friday night.
A snow shower possible today.
I continue to watch for the possibility of precipitation later this weekend and into early next week. Data is all over the place with this event. So, for now – will leave it as it is. Just a mention of the possibility.
Cold weather through next weekend.
I am watching for a possible overrunning precipitation event for Saturday through Monday. Details are still vaugue. It appears a system moving out of the southwest United States will push into our region. The exact track of this system will determine what happens in our local counties.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
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Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
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