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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday – Mostly cloudy sky conditions. Small chance for a morning shower. Falling temperatures during the afternoon hours. Highs mainly in the middle to upper 40’s over southern Illinois and upper 40’s to lower 50’s over western Kentucky. Windy at times. Southwest winds becoming northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny with morning temperatures in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Gusty winds from time to time. Chances of schools being delayed because of the weather? 0%
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly sunny with temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. Temperatures should fall during the afternoon hours. Gusty winds from time to time
Thursday night – Partly cloudy. Low temperatures in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. North winds at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Friday – Partly cloudy sky conditions. It will be quite a bit colder. Highs only in the 30’s over most of the area. North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Friday night – Partly cloudy. Chilly. Low temperatures in the 20’s. Winds from the northeast early. Winds will eventually turn out of the southeast at 5-10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Saturday – Increasing clouds. High temperatures in the 40’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph. Confidence is high in this part of the forecast.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
A calm weather day is on tap for the region. What else is new? Seems like that has been the story of the winter. Calm.
A cold front will move through the region on Thursday morning. This will bring a wind shift. Winds will be out of the northwest and gusty today.
Here is the morning weather map – you can see the cold front slicing through the area. Not the strongest front we have seen of late. It will have some gusty winds with it.
Temperatures today won’t be too bad with highs into the 40’s and even some lower 50’s for western Kentucky.
Friday won’t be as nice. Temperatures will be colder with highs only in the 30’s. WHATTTTTT? You mean it will feel like winter? Yes, it will feel like winter. Friday will not bring any snowflakes to go with the cold. Sorry about that (errrr sorry for you snow lovers, I should say).
High temperatures for today may occur early in the day – temperatures may fall during the afternoon hours.
High temperatures by Friday will be cooler – it will feel more like winter
Our next storm system approaches on Saturday. You will see clouds increase on Saturday and thicken as the day wears on.
Precipitation will move into our region on Saturday night and Sunday. What type of precipitation is the question.
See the extended discussion for details. That is found below 🙂
The uncertainties part of the e-journal spells out where I am not confident in the forecast. I always tell people to pay attention to the whole forecast and not just the part they want to hear.
Weather is rarely yes or no. Weather forecasts are made up of probabilities. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 1.7 inches in your backyard then I am not sure you should trust their forecast. Why? Because meteorology has not come that far. Not yet, anyway. I can tell you that you should receive 1″-3″ of snow. Yes. I can do that. I can not tell you that your backyard will receive 1.7 inches of snow. Sorry, if you are looking for that forecast then look elsewhere.
Uncertainties in today’s forecast swirl around precipitation type for Saturday night into Monday night. The data is completely all over the place. I do not have any confidence, at this time, in one solution over the other. We may be dealing with snow over some of our counties and rain elsewhere. It is also possible that we see precipitation begin as snow and change to rain and then end as snow. That is a very real possibility.
There are two separate pieces of energy that I am tracking. One comes in from the southwest (an upper level low) and one comes in from the northwest (strong shortwave). The handling of each system by the models leaves a lot to be desired.
Here are the two systems on Friday night
I am hoping confidence will go up quite a bit later today or tonight. I would love to give you some solid information by the next update. We will see if that happens.
If you have travel plans on Saturday night into Monday morning then just check back for updated forecasts. I will be on it!
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I have not made any significant changes to the ongoing forecast.
No concerns today. A calm weather day for the region.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – no wild card today. A calm day
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Will I need to take action?
No action required today.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Whatever overnight rain from Wednesday night will have moved on by morning.
Most of this precipitation falls Saturday night into Sunday night. Totals have been lowered a bit since the last update. How much fall depends on how strong the system ends up being. Still some debate on that subject.
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No winter weather in the forecast today.
I am tracking a precipitation maker for the weekend. We may see snow in parts of our area. Stay tuned.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Well, I have been tracking the weekend storm for awhile now. What seems almost certain is that precipitation will fall on Saturday night into Sunday night.
What is still not certain is precipitation type. Will it be rain? Will it be snow? Will it be rain or snow? If a forecaster is telling you “for sure” this is going to be one or the other…they are doing you a disservice.
Temperatures on Saturday should rise above freezing over the area. Temperatures will then fall on Saturday night. Whether temperatures fall below freezing is the question. If this occurs then the chances for snow will increase, obviously.
Here is the latest NAM model depiction of what happens on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
This first image is for around 11 pm on Saturday night. You can see some precipitation trying to move into the area.
Likely along a warm front. Image is from www.weatherbell.com
Here is the image for 6 am on Sunday morning – some snow trying to push into our area. According to this particular model.
But, will it be correct? That is questionable. The GFS model shows mostly snow in our region (at least the Wednesday night run of the GFS model did). It seems to change every 12 hours.
This may be a situation where the precipitation begins as snow and then turns to rain and then ends as snow.
Colder air is forecast to move in at some point on Sunday.
There remain a lot of questions concerning the weekend storm. Hopefully I will have a better idea by tonight’s update (Thursday night). This is not an easy system to forecast.
Here is the Friday evening weather map – you can see the big system out over the southwest United States.
Temperatures next week and the following week should average colder than normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
