Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Saturday to Saturday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A small chance of lightning today (Saturday)
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Unlikely. Some low land flooding will be possible today and tonight. Standing water could be an issue in a few areas. Flash flooding is not anticipating.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
.
Fire weather risk level.
Saturday: 2. Very low risk.
Saturday night. 2. Very low risk.
Sunday through Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
A low pressure system will bring a period of rain through most of today into tonight. Between a half to one inch of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Breezy conditions can also be expected into Sunday with wind gusts between 20 to 25 mph at times. Near to slightly above normal temperatures along with mostly dry conditions are then in store to start off the new week. A weak disturbance may bring the risk of an isolated shower on Tuesday, but most of the region looks to remain dry.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Saturday, January 27, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. Widespread rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low
Sunrise: 7:03 AM
Sunset: 5:14 PM .
.
Saturday Night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely early in the evening. Rain tapering southwest to northeast. Showers may linger over our eastern counties into Sunday morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered as the night wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 2 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 7:11 PM
Moonset: 8:24 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of early morning showers over mainly extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 10 AM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low
Sunrise: 7:02 AM
Sunset: 5:15 PM .
.
Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:09 PM
Moonset: 8:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
Monday, January 29, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Clearing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:01 AM
Sunset: 5:16 PM .
.
Monday Night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. Some high clouds moving in from the north.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:07 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- A wet Saturday and Saturday night.
- A wide range of rain totals from northwest to southeast.
- A few showers may linger into Sunday.
- Drier next week. Watching a weak system Tuesday.
- Warming trend late week.
- February cold and snow?
- Mild temperatures for January.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
Good wet Saturday morning.
Well, what a week this has been. A complete flip from the last few weeks of bitterly cold.
A week of rain. Something we haven’t seen in quite some time. I don’t recall this many days with rain chances back to back to back!
We needed it. We have been in drought. A large chunk of real estate has received rain.
Here is what the 9:45 AM radar looked like. Widespread rain. Had it been slightly colder this would have been a widespread three to six inches of snow with pockets of 8 to 14 inches! But, it is too warm. Thus, we have rain!
Crazy. After all that cold air. The only snow on this radar is back in southeast Kansas. That tiny blue area.
10 AM radar loop
Check out our exclusive live radars and lightning data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The rain will continue through the day. There will likely be a lull at some point this afternoon before the deformation zone pivots and develops over our region. Typically, that would be snow. But, again…just too warm.
Rain showers continue into tonight. See the future-cast radars below.
A few showers will likely linger into early Sunday morning over western Kentucky. For the most part, however, Sunday will be cloudy, breezy, and dry. Perhaps some mist here and there.
The bulk of this rain event is today and tonight.
Let’s look at the past three, seven, and fourteen days. This is the radar indicated rain totals. What has already fallen.
Past three days.
Past sever days.
Part fourteen days.
Decent rain (some of that was snow and ice, as well).
Here was Thursday’s drought monitor. Let’s check back on this graphic next Thursday and see how it changes.
As mentioned above, Sunday will be breezy and cloudy. A few lingering showers.
Sunday night through Friday is shaping up mostly dry.
I am watching a fast moving clipper Tuesday. That could bring isolated showers to southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. For now, confidence in rain is low. I capped the probabilities at 20%
Temperatures will trend milder as we move through the week.
For example, here is the GFS model temperature forecast for Carbondale and Paducah.
Paducah
Notice the warming trend as we push through the week. Nothing crazy, but decent.
I am watching mid to late February for cold air returning to the region.
The next question will be precipitation. Can we get a storm system to mingle with the cold air.
It is impossible to tell you that it is going to snow on February 17th or another date. If someone is telling you that, then they are making it up. Throwing darts.
What I can tell you is that we have a higher probability of cold air towards the middle/end of February.
I am watching several storm systems between February 12th and the end of the month. Five systems or so.
It is luck of the draw on storm path. If the low tracks to our south, then we have a higher chance of snow and ice. If the low tracks over us or to our north, then we end up with rain and perhaps thunderstorms.
It is still too soon to lock in on a forecast. That is what I am watching.
If you want snow, then the chances do increase during that time-frame. The cold air should be there.
I will be monitoring long range trends.
Don’t forget to check your app for the long range videos. We have been batting about 80% on the long range monthly outlooks. Into month two and three, as well.
I do continue to have concerns about drought as we move into spring.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
.
This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
