Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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January 27, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Rain.  Rain ending from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours.  Rain will end first over southeast Missouri and will linger the longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Decreasing clouds as the day wears on.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 56        IL ~  54 to 56      KY ~  54 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 100%      IL ~ 100%       KY ~ 100%          TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation:Widespread.  A band of showers will push across the area.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Dense fog. Some evening clouds.  Decreasing clouds overnight.  Colder.
Temperatures:    MO ~  28 to 32      IL ~ 28 to 34        KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should have ended.
Wind chill values: 24 to 28
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  West becoming north and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  No

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January 28, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds.  A bit cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~  48 to 54       IL ~  48 to 54      KY ~  48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds:  North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear early.  Colder.  Increasing clouds late.  Snow flurries or snow showers possible, especially over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Precipitation will move from the northwest towards the southeast.
Temperatures:    MO ~  25 to 30     IL ~ 25 to 30        KY ~ 26 to 32
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late at night
Wind chill values: 18 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Small chance of a dusting across northern parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois.
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans:  No

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January 29, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries or snow showers before 12 pm.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 38      IL ~  34 to 38      KY ~  35 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to spotty possible
Wind chill values: 26 to 34
Accumulating snow or ice: Small chance of a dusting in a few spots.
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cold.
Temperatures:    MO ~  18 to 24      IL ~ 18 to 24        KY ~ 18 to 24
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 14 to 18
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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January 30, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Chilly.
Temperatures:  MO ~  35 to 40        IL ~  35 to 40        KY ~  35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 28 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North becoming south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cold.
Temperatures:    MO ~  28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 34        KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: No

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January 31, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures:  MO ~  50 to 55        IL ~  50 to 55       KY ~  50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy.  A chance of mainly late night showers.  Turning cold north to south.
Temperatures:    MO ~  32 to 42      IL ~ 34 to 42        KY ~ 36 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered, but perhaps increasing late at night
Wind chill values: 25 to 35
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds:  South becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Wind becoming north late over our northern counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Monitor updates

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February 1, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain or rain and snow likely.  Temperatures may begin to fall during the late morning and afternoon hours, especially over our northern counties.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 44   Temps may fall during the day     IL ~  34 to 44 temps may fall during the day       KY ~  36 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice:  Possible
Winds:  West at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain or snow likely.
Temperatures:    MO ~  18 to 25      IL ~ 18 to 24         KY ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps widespread
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible
Winds:  Becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy road conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

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February 2, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Snow possible.  Colder.
Temperatures:  MO ~  20 to 25     IL ~  20 to 25       KY ~  20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  Possible
Winds:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Evening snow showers possible.  Clearing.  Bitterly cold.  Low temperatures will depend on snow cover.
Temperatures:    MO ~  8 to 14      IL ~ 8 to 14        KY ~ 8 to 14
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated.  Ending.
Wind chill values: -5 to 10
Accumulating snow or ice: No additional accumulation anticipated Friday night.
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy road conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans: Have a plan B

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Now through next Wednesday:  No severe weather concerns.

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link.

Short term outlook:

Rain will continue this morning.  Rain will end across southeast Missouri during the late morning hours and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky during the mid afternoon hours.

See the interactive city view radars to track the precipitation.

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures down a tad today, but no extremes.  Highs will top out in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s.

Clouds may actually clear later today from west to east.  The best chance of sunshine would be across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Hopefully the sun will move further east, as well.  Confidence is lower on how fast the cloud/sun line moves eastward.

Here was a snapshot of the GOES 16 visible satellite imagery.  This was taken around 9:40 AM

You can see the sharp cloud/sun line to our west.

The white represent clouds.
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Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

WHAT and when?  Light snow showers possible Sunday night and Monday morning.  Confidence is high.
WHAT and when?  Sleet and snow possible Thursday and Friday.  Confidence is medium. 
WHAT and when?  A third system possible February 5th through 8th.  Confidence is low.

WHERE?  Sunday night and Monday would most likely be across northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  A dusting of snow can’t be ruled out, but odds are against higher totals.  As you move into the rest of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee the confidence level drops considerably.  Maybe some snowflakes in the air, but odds are against accumulation.  Monitor updates.
WHERE?  Area-wide event possible Thursday and Friday.  Southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
WHERE?  The third system would be area-wide, as well.   Southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

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This first graphic is for Sunday night and Monday.  A weak fast moving system could deliver a few snowflakes.

Confidence is high that there will be some snowflakes in the air.  Confidence on accumulation is low.
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The next big weather story will be a storm system that will bring rain to our region on Wednesday night and Thursday.  A strong cold front will be moving south across our region.  Rain will turn to sleet and snow as the colder air arrives.

How much snow remains a question (see below).

You can see the cold air arriving in this GFS model animation.  GFS is a weather model.

Click to enlarge

Brrr (here we go again)
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Rain will likely be falling across the area before the snow arrives.  This raises concerns for transportation departments being able to treat the roads.  This is what happened during our previous two winter storms.  This made travel difficult.  The sleet also made it worse.

At this time, it doesn’t appear there will be as much sleet with this event as the previous one.  Still early for certainties.

This graphic below is the future-cast radar from the GFS model guidance.  Green represents rain.  Blue would be snow.  This is what MIGHT look like as we move into Thursday and Friday.

You can see that it shows rain in the region Thursday into Friday.  The rain quickly changes to snow according to the GFS model.

Again, this is ONE models opinion.  There are many different models.  No one model is ever exactly right.

Models are for guidance and are not gospel.
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Here is the Canadian model guidance future-cast radar for the same time period.

There is agreement between the GFS model and the Canadian model that a precipitation event will occur late Wednesday into into Friday.

That raises confidence levels that there will be precipitation.
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Let’s look at some ensemble data.  What are ensembles?  See this post that I made last night.  Click here.

Click image to enlarge images

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I am going to post the GFS ensembles.  Each graphic represents the time stamp above it.

The first one is 7 AM Thursday.

You can see quite a few of the squares have green over our region.  That means that quite a few of the ensemble members believe it will be raining here by Thursday morning.

I would agree.  It does appear precipitation is likely to occur on Thursday morning and it should be in the form of rain.

Remember, the more squares that agree with each other, the higher the confidence in the forecast.  It does not mean that is what will happen.  It is one models opinion on the weather pattern.

Each square represents 7 AM Thursday.  Each square is one run of the GFS model (again see the link about about ensembles for a better understanding).

Click image to enlarge
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This next image is 12 PM Thursday

Widespread green over our region.  That means rain.

A few of the squares show the rain (green) turning to snow (blue and purple colors).

Click image to enlarge
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This next image is 6 PM Thursday

A lot of green on the map and quite a bit of blue/purple.

The GFS model is giving a strong signal for widespread precipitation in our region.

Click image to enlarge.
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This next image (below) is 12 AM Friday

Interesting to note how many of the squares still show green.  This is a change from previous runs.  The model guidance trended perhaps a bit warmer.

There are numerous squares with snow (blue/purple).  The orange color represents sleet.

Notice some of the squares showing the precipitation ending.

12 AM Friday, the GFS model believes we will have widespread precipitation in our region Thursday night and Friday morning.  Rain and snow.

Click image to enlarge.
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This next image represents 6 AM Friday

The GFS model continues to show widespread precipitation in our region.  Some of the squares have the rain/snow ending.

The majority of squares are showing snow.  A few show rain.

Click image to enlarge
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This next image is for 12 PM Friday

Numerous squares are showing precipitation in our region.  Some show rain and most show snow.
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This next image is for 6 PM Friday

The GFS ensembles are showing the precipitation ending and moving off to the east.
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Now, the fun part.

Each of those squares is one run of the GFS model.  In other words, if you added up all the squares from the above images, what would their snow totals be?

You see a WIDE range of totals.  We don’t know yet how much (if any) snow will accumulate.

I am just showing you the raw model output.  The raw graphics.

The scale is on the right side of the graphic.

The GFS shows anything from no snow or a dusting to several inches.  Still too early to know for sure.

Click images to enlarge them
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How about the mean.  What does MEAN mean?  The MEAN is the average of all of the models.

This is the GFS ensemble MEAN for snowfall totals.

Will this happen?  I don’t know, yet.

This is just the GFS models opinion.  Each model is different.

The fun part of this is that the model runs four times a day.  That means it will likely change, somewhat, four times a day.

If the models keep showing he same end result over and over again then our confidence in the forecast will increase.

We don’t chase models.  In other words, I already have a forecast in mind for this event.  I have to monitor trends in guidance to fine tune that forecast.

My forecast philosophy is to ramp up and not down.  That means don’t put out BIG totals early on.  I won’t have higher confidence until Wednesday.

I am also a big believer in monitoring trends.  The trend is your friend.  In other words, the trends usually tell you more than just one model run.
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Let me show you another model.  This is the EC.  The EC is the European model.

Here is the MEAN snowfall from the EC model.

Notice the differences between the two models.
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Let me show you the EC ensemble panels.

Each square represents one run of the EC model.  Each square is showing you the total amount of frozen precipitation that each run is forecasting.

A lot of the squares show wintry precipitation accumulation in our region.

Some of the squares show very little if any snow or ice.  Some squares show quite a bit.

Click to enlarge
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The EC model has more ensemble squares than the GFS.  That is why there are two graphics.

Here is the second EC ensemble forecast panel.
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Colder air will follow the winter storm.  IF we have snow on the ground, then temperatures may dip into the single digits.  This is highly depend on snow cover.
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These temperatures are from the GFS model.  If we have snow on the ground then it will be colder.

We start off quite mild on Wednesday.  This is the 6 PM Wednesday temperature forecast.
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Here is the 6 AM Friday temperature forecast
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This next graphic is 6 AM Saturday
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This next graphic is 6 AM Sunday
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Wind chills would be even colder.  Gusty winds are likely with this system.

Here is the 6 AM wind chill forecast for Saturday, February 3rd.
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What does all of this mean?
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My current forecast is for rain to develop on Wednesday night.  Rain is likely on Thursday.

A cold front will push through the region on Thursday.  Temperatures ahead of the front will likely be in the 40’s and 50’s.  Temperatures behind the front will fall into the 20’s.

Most of the precipitation will fall behind the cold front.

It might be tricky to pre-treat roadways.  Rain ahead of the system could wash the chemicals off the road.

Rain should change to sleet and snow from north to south on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Snow is possible Thursday into into Friday morning.  Some accumulation is possible, but it is too soon to know if we will have a dusting or several inches.

Bitterly cold air will be with us through the weekend and the following week.

It is still too early to be predicting how much (if any) snow will accumulate.
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A second system is possible around February 5th or 6th.  Low confidence on that one.
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Monitor updates, because the forecast will need adjusting.

The Nashville, TN National Weather Service posted this.  I thought it was funny.  It does sum up winter forecasting.
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Here is what the St Louis, Missouri NWS had to say about the late week event.

Sorry for the CAPS, but that is how the NWS issues their products.
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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.