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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday night – Mostly clear early then increasing clouds. Patchy fog again possible. Temperatures will vary because of snow cover.
Temperatures: Lows from 28 to 34 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0% early. 30% after 3 am.
Coverage of precipitation? None to maybe scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps black ice where snow and ice has melted on roadways and refroze.
Monday – Cloudy. Some fog possible. Some drizzle and light rain showers possible. Mostly light in nature.
Temperatures: Highs will vary because of snow pack. Highs in the 38-46 range. Again, they will vary.
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and patchy.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways. There could still be some ice and snow on some roads early in the day. Depending on whether road crews were able to get to all the rural areas. Especially true Monday morning. But, with warmer temperatures this will help clear roads.
Monday night – Breezy early. Cloudy with a few showers early. Then, a chance for patchy light drizzle late tonight. Small chance of frozen precipitation late tonight (less than 10% chance). I believe most of the precipitation will end before the colder air arrives.
Temperatures: Lows from 28-34 degrees
Winds: Winds southwest early in the evening at 10-20 mph. Gusty. Then, winds becoming more west late tonight at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50% chance early in the evening. 20% late (after midnight).
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and patchy early. Isolated late.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance of a flurry or freezing drizzle (less than 10% chance)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely no impacts. Wet roadways where rain occurs.
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Highs will range 35-40 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows from 22-28
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds possible. We will have to see how quick the clouds exit on Wednesday. Data is a bit mixed on this subject.
Temperatures: Highs will range 35-40 degrees.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Perhaps some clearing.
Temperatures: Lows from 24-28
Winds: North winds becoming east/southeast winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Not as cold.
Temperatures: Highs will range 40-45 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Light rain possible on Monday
2. Temperatures on Monday will rise above the freezing mark. Some 40s possible.
3. Fifties possible by the end of the week
4. Currently not tracking any snow events.
We still have snow and ice covered roads over parts of the area. Appears some schools will still be out of session on Monday. Monitor your local school closing sources for that information.
Check out the satellite photograph from 1 pm.
You can see the snow cover in white. Some of our area remains snow-free.
Another view
A weak weather system will push into the region on Monday. Clouds and milder temperatures will push into the region as southerly winds continue into Monday afternoon. Temperatures should jump above freezing on Monday. Perhaps even some 40s in a few spots.
Light rain will move into the area on Monday morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals will be light, thankfully. We do not need heavy rain on this snow pack. I keep saying snow pack. Some of you do not have any snow on the ground. But, for areas that do have snow, we don’t want heavy rain.
Temperatures are a bit questionably on Monday. I am not sure the GFS model is capturing the deep snow pack over parts of the area. If there was not snow on the ground then temperatures will rise well into the 40s. Let’s see how it goes.
Here is what the GFS believes high temperatures will be on Monday. Notice how warm it has the temperatures.
And, here is the NAM model forecast. NAM is cooler. I think the NAM is capturing the snow on the ground a bit better than the GFS. We will see. Either way, we should go above freezing.
Fog might also be an issue. Warm air moving over cold ground conditions.
Rainfall totals will range from a trace to perhaps up to 0.20″. Not much.
Here is the high resolution NAM model from weatherbell.com
These are forecast rainfall totals for the next event. Again, not much.
Future-cast radar images from the NAM model. The grey areas are light drizzle or showers. Green would be light rain, as well.
This first image is for 11 am to 12 pm
This second image is for early Monday evening.
Rain will end Monday night as colder air arrives. There is a 20% chance for some light freezing drizzle or flurries as the cold air moves in and the moisture exits eastward. Should not be a big deal, but I will monitor it.
The good news is that milder air is showing up in the long range charts. I would not be surprised if 50s returned late in the week. YES, 50s!!!!!
I say, go team warm? 🙂
Monitoring January 29th-February 3rd for a weather event.
No significant snow anticipated. Some light snow possible Monday night as the rain pulls away. Nothing of consequence.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday night – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday Night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Thursday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this package.
No major new concerns. Roads may still be ice and snow covered in some areas. Use care.
No. There will still be some slick roadways over the next 12-24 hours. Warmer air on Monday should help the cause.
The wild card for this forecast package will be whether or not our light rain event on Monday night might turn to a little bit of light snow before it ends. Odds seem low, at least for anything of consequence.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation on Sunday.
Light rain on Monday. Small chance of freezing drizzle or a flurry at the very end of the storm. Less than 20% chance of that happening.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Monday through Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
