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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and bitterly cold. Fog possible, especially in the snow pack area. Freezing fog possible. Temperatures will vary depending on snow pack. Areas with no snow on the ground won’t be as cold. Freezing fog is simply fog that produces moisture on surfaces. This can cause a thin later of ice to form. Of course many roads still have ice on them. So, you would not know the difference in those areas.
Temperatures: Lows from 4-8 degrees over the deep snow pack region. 12-16 in areas without snow. Some data shows 20s in southeast Missouri tonight and northwest parts of southern Illinois (towards Randolph County)
Winds: Northwest winds at 4-8 mph becoming south at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Just what is still on the roads from the last storm
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Still some slick roads in the area. Use care. Freezing fog possible in the snow pack zone. Could cause a thin layer of ice on surfaces.
Sunday – Partly cloudy and chilly. A bit more clouds over the snow pack zone, perhaps. Morning fog possible in the snow pack zone. Could be freezing zone if fog develops. Freezing fog is simply fog that produces moisture on surfaces. This can cause a thin later of ice to form. Of course many roads still have ice on them. So, you would not know the difference in those areas.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 26 to 35 degrees. Colder over snow pack. A little milder in areas without snow cover. Perhaps 35-40 in those areas.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No, just what is still on the ground and roads from the last storm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be quite cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some snow covered roads in the region. Freezing fog possible in the snow pack zone. Could cause a thin layer of ice on surfaces.
Sunday night – Mostly clear early then increasing clouds. Patchy fog possible. Temperatures will vary because of snow cover.
Temperatures: Lows from 28 to 34 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance early in the evening.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps black ice where snow and ice has melted on roadways and refroze.
Monday – Cloudy. Some rain showers possible. Mostly light in nature.
Temperatures: Highs will vary because of snow pack. Highs in the 38-46 range. Again, they will vary.
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways. There could still be some ice and snow on some roads early in the day. Depending on whether road crews were able to get to all the rural areas. Especially true Monday morning. But, with warmer temperatures this will help clear roads.
Monday night – Cloudy with a few showers early. Then, a chance for patchy light drizzle, freezing drizzle, or flurries. Most of the precipitation should exit before the cold air arrives.
Temperatures: Lows from 30-34 degrees
Winds: Winds becoming northwest/north at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% chance
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Small chance
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely no impacts.
Tuesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Chilly.
Temperatures: Highs will range 35-40 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and chilly.
Temperatures: Lows from 22-28
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs will range 35-40 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. What a storm
2. Cold on Sunday
3. A little milder on Monday, but not much
4. Rain possible on Monday.
The main weather story will continue to be the ice and snow covered roads over much of the area. Snow drifts up to five feet were reported over parts of western Kentucky on Friday night and Saturday morning. Snow combined with 15-35 mph winds to produce severe blowing and drifting snow. Definitely a winter storm to remember.
There is also a chance of patchy fog as warmer air starts to move over the snow pack. If fog does develop then it could produce a little moisture on surfaces. This could freeze.
Can you find the snow pack on this low temperature map for tonight? HRRR model is not as cold over southeast Missouri as some other data shows. But, it might be on to something. We will see.
Also, any roadways with slushy snow or ice will refreeze tonight. Slick roads in the morning.
Calm weather will prevail on Sunday. It will remain chilly.
A weak system will move into our region on Monday. This will produce a little bit of lift and thus rain showers are possible. Right now it appears this will be a light event.
Colder air will move into the area on Monday night, but not extreme. I can’t completely rule out the light rain changing to light snow flurries or a snow shower. Nothing of significance.
Mostly calm weather for the middle of the week. Some signals of a storm system towards the end of January/beginning of February. Way too early to know the storm track.
Winter is not finished. We have a long way to go.
Don’t forget to sign up for my personal texting service. Remember, I only send out social media alerts and severe weather alerts during winter storm events and/or severe weather events. If you want a daily text, as well, then sign up for the daily weather forecast.
No significant snow anticipated. Some light snow possible Monday night as the rain pulls away. Nothing of consequence.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday night – No significant snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday Night – No snow or ice anticipated.
Wednesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this package.
No major new concerns. Roads may still be ice and snow covered. Use care.
No. There will still be some slick roadways. Strong winds have caused a lot of blowing and drifting snow. It may take awhile before roads are completely back to normal.
The wild card for this forecast package will be whether or not our light rain event on Monday night might turn to a little bit of light snow before it ends. Odds seem low, at least for anything of consequence.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation on Sunday.
Some light precipitation possible on Monday. Right now it appears that it should be rain. The precipitation totals are expected to be light.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO on Sunday through Thursday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
