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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Monday – Martin Luther King Day – A beautiful day. Mild. January thaw. Mostly sunny sky conditions. High temperatures in the 50’s to lower 60’s in a few spots. West winds at 5 mph.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – No school today
Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – No school today
Monday night – A few passing clouds. Not too bad for January with above normal temperatures. Lows will be in the middle 30’s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday – Some clouds. A small chance for a passing light shower during the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 50’s. Temperatures may fall a bit towards evening. West winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. A small chance of light showers. Temperatures will continue to be above normal. Lows will be in the lower to middle 30’s. Northwest winds at 5 mph.
Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Windy at times. It will be cooler, but still not bad for January. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 40’s. Northwest winds at 10 mph increasing to 15-20 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Our calm weather continues. Unusual January pattern. The lack of winter storms has been a bit amazing.
Our January thaw is going to continue today and tomorrow. Cooler temperatures will arrive by Wednesday. Nothing extreme and no arctic air.
A weak disturbance will push through our region on Tuesday afternoon. This disturbance might produce some light showers. The GFS model shows this – you can see light snow showers over Iowa. Light rain showers over southern Missouri. Image from weatherbell.com – GFS model.
Not overly impressed by the Tuesday system. Some light showers will likely show up on radar. Precipitation totals will be less than 0.05″.
The rest of the week will bring a mix of clouds and sun. Cooler temperatures.
How about a picture of the day? Click here for more information on this photograph
Seen here is wind-blown rime ice found on a stretch of square wire fence running up the side of the Cheviot Hills in Northumberland, UK. Photograph by Nick Mattlock
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No changes in the current forecast numbers. A mild day ahead of us.
No concerns.
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The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – No wild card today. January calm continues.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Sudden jump in storm’s lightning might warn a supercell thunderstorm is forming
A sudden jump in the number of lightning strikes inside a garden-variety thunderstorm might soon give forecasters a new tool for predicting severe weather and issuing timely warnings, according to research at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-01-sudden-storm-lightning-supercell.html#jCp
Will I need to take action?
No action required. Calm weather.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
If it rains on Tuesday it will be light rain. Less than 0.05″. This is the official National Weather Service rainfall forecast. They have painted in tiny amounts of our area for Tuesday.
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Nada. Sorry snow fans. Boy, this has not been your year. A flip from what happened last year. It will be interesting to see if February makes up for January’s lack of winter storms.
Keep checking back!
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
The long range discussion continues to be centered around whether or not we are going to have another arctic outbreak towards the end of the month into the first part of February.
Although it does appear we are going to start stepping back down into cooler temperatures by the middle of this week, I am not seeing any extreme temperatures.
There are (have been) signals on the long range data for a cold blast the last week of January. The trend on the data has been to show some moderation compared to what it was showing a few days ago. So, will we see another big blast of cold air or not. That is the question.
I am starting to lose confidence in the big arctic blast some of the models are showing for the end of the month. But, still some time to gain my confidence back. Guess I am getting a bit antsy on that part of the forecast.
Snow lovers just can’t seem to find any love on these weather maps.
Of note – the CIPS Analogs are showing the last week of January turning cold again. But, it is more centered on the northeast U.S. vs right over our region. Yet another signal for at least colder weather the last week of January. CIPS looks at the forecasted weather set-up and compares it to historic analogs. Then it comes up with some forecast thoughts.
Here is what the GFS model is showing for high and low temperatures over the coming 16 days. The yellow area is considered long range. Confidence in verification is lower in the long range compared to the short range. Click image for larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
All of the signals point towards some pretty cold air impacting parts of the Eastern United States in the long range (last week of January into first part of February). But, it might be centered more on the Great Lakes into the northeast. Time will tell.
I am not tracking any winter storms. The storm system I have been talking about for the past week (the one that appears to be heading way south) is still showing up in the charts. But, it continues to appear that it will track along the Gulf of Mexico.
Here is the GFS depiction of that particular system. It might produce some snow or ice for some of the southern states. We will have to see where temperatures are later this week.
Images from weatherbell.com
GFS Model
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
