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Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL **** $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box! 18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box! Valentine’s Day enclosure card! Free delivery in Marshall County! Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield! Payment is required at time of order. To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call. Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks. 270-205-2552 tracyd@dcelectricinc.com
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
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I have launched a new weather texting service! Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. These are found behind the Personal Notification Settings on the weathertalk.com page.
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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January 11, 2017
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Mild. Windy. Spotty showers possible. Steady or perhaps rising temperatures overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Strong and gusty winds. Winds above 40 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Low temperatures early in the evening. Temperatures should rise through the 50’s overnight and into the 60’s for portions of the region by Thursday morning.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Isolated higher winds possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered or spotty
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Some spotty showers possible. High winds likely.
Sunset will be at 4:58 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Complicated forecast Thursday into Sunday. A frontal boundary in or near the region might mean a wide range of temperatures. I can’t rule out a wintry mix over portions of the region late in the week. The boundary and temperatures will need to be closely monitored.
I will be monitoring for the potential of heavy rain, as well.
Significant adjustments are possible in the overall forecast.
Some light accumulation of freezing rain likely with this event. I am thinking 0.05″ to perhaps 0.25″ possible as you move towards Ste Genevieve County, MO and perhaps Randolph County, Illinois. Keep in mind, subtle changes in the forecast could change these numbers.
People posting these one and two inch ice maps do not know what they are talking about. Ignore them.
I have updated the winter storm probability maps
You can view those here –> www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
January 12, 2017
Thursday: Cloudy. Warm start to the day. Falling temperatures from north to south by late morning into the afternoon hours. Spotty showers and thunderstorms possible. Gusty winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Falling temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58 to 66 degree range. High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day. During the afternoon hours temperatures will fall into the 40’s over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the morning hours. Winds 7 to 14 mph during the afternoon and gusty. Winds becoming west and northwest as the day wears on.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor. Rain is possible. Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:59 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 5:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:00 a.m. Full moon
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Falling temperatures. A few scattered showers possible. Late Thursday night, as temperatures fall below freezing, there might be some freezing drizzle over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. Some questions remain about precipitation coverage on Thursday night. There might be a lull in precipitation over our northern counties.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some freezing drizzle or freezing rain over northern portions of the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 28 to 32 degrees north to 38 to 44 degrees over west Kentucky, Missouri Bootheel, and Tennessee.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This will need to be closely monitored. Low confidence on the position of the front late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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January 13, 2017
Friday: Cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Freezing rain and sleet middle of the area and northern counties. Draw a line from near Cape Girardeau, MO across extreme southern Illinois from there northward stands the best chance for a wintry mix. South of that line uncertain and confidence is low. Very low confidence on where the 32 degree line will settle. Monitor updates. Some ice is possible in the region on Friday into Saturday morning.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Freezing rain. Sleet.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures will have a large spread across the region. Upper 20’s to lower 30’s over our northern counties and 40’s over our southern counties. Where the front settles is key to precipitation type from county to county.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain and sleet likely across portions of the region. Monitor updates and advisories.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:00 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 6:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:51 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Friday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely. Ice likely across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A wintry mix to the north of the front. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Wintry precipitation possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from the upper 20’s near Mt Vernon, Illinois to the middle 30’s to lower 40’s over portions of west Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee. LOW confidence on temperatures Friday night. Changeable numbers are possible.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Yes. Northern counties, at least.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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January 14, 2017
Saturday: Cloudy. Showers likely. Freezing rain possible over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The further north you travel the more likely you would run into some wintry mix.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some wintry mix north.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s near Mt Vernon and in the 40’s over west Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and west Tennessee.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:01 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 7:44 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:35 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Rain showers possible. The thinking is that temperatures should be above freezing over much of the area by Saturday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. I will be monitoring temperatures to see how far north the freezing line pushes on Saturday. Perhaps all the precipitation will have changed to plain old rain by Saturday afternoon or evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures in the lower 30’s to lower 40’s from north to south in the region.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Precipitation should have changed to all rain in the region
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
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January 15, 2017
Sunday: Cloudy. Scattered showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s towards Mt Vernon and perhaps in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s over western Kentucky, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. Low confidence on placement.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds 5 to 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:02 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 8:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:14 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Low temperatures from 38 to 46 degrees
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
More information on the UV index. Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Strong and gusty winds Wednesday night
- Multiple rain and storm chances into next week
- Winter storm/ice storm developing for portions of the region
Forecast Analysis
Active weather pattern will continue into next week. An extremely complicated temperature forecast as we push into Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
There is little to no model agreement on where the freezing line will settle on Thursday night into Saturday. This complicates precipitation forecasts. this is no secret, as we have been talking about this for the past week.
Winter storm watches have been issued for portions of the region. These may be upgraded to freezing rain advisories or ice storm warnings. Monitor updates for changeable forecasts.
I will keep the winter weather outlook updated each day. I will try and post it before 4 pm. You can find that outlook on the Weather Talk website behind the Daily Weather Summary tab. Email me if you have questions beaudodson@usawx.com
Wednesday night through Friday morning
Confidence: Medium
Gusty winds will prevail into Wednesday night. This is the result of a strong pressure gradient over the region. Same issues we had on Tuesday.
Here is the NAM wind gust map for 9 pm Wednesday evening
Click image to enlarge
Wind gusts may top 40 mph.
The bigger issue, for Thursday, will be a cold front that settles southward through the area. Temperatures will fall through the day and by Thursday evening temperatures will have fallen into the 30’s and 40’s across portions of the region.
Check out the temperature forecast map for Thursday morning and then compare it to Thursday evening. Falling temperatures.
6 AM Temperature map for Thursday
6 PM temperature map for Thursday
The next issue will be precipitation. How much. Where. In what form. Complicated forecast, because models do not agree on any of those questions.
What is most complicated about the precipitation forecast is that the front stalls somewhere in our region. Warm air rides up and over the cold air. This produces precipitation. The precipitation falls into the cold air and freezes. That would be freezing rain. Freezing rain is what causes ice to build up on trees and power lines. Sleet would be the small bouncy ice pellets (they do not cause problems for trees or power lines).
The depth of the cold air is the determining factor as to what type of precipitation falls. Snow? Sleet? Freezing rain? Rain?
With a warm wedge of air aloft it would appear most of this event would be freezing rain and sleet. Snow is not likely to occur. Of course, this would be where temperatures are cold enough to support frozen. Further south, rain will fall.
The guidance is indicating significant lulls in the precipitation on Thursday night into Saturday night. As a matter of fact, the EC guidance shows very little precipitation falling on Thursday night (north of the front).
I am leaning towards a lull Thursday night. That might mean freezing drizzle north of the front across at least portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The further north you go, the better the odds that temperatures will fall below freezing. That would mean Bollinger and Cape Girardeau counties have a better chance of some spotty frozen precipitation vs say the Bootheel.
Significant questions remain on the exact placement of the 32 degree line.
Road surfaces are warm. That might mean that road surfaces won’t become icy quite as fast. Bridges and overpasses would freeze first. With temperatures in the 60’s Wednesday and Thursday, it will take some time for surfaces to cool down.
Residents of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should continue to monitor updates forecasts. Monitor for advisories/ watches/warnings over the coming days.
Light ice accumulations are anticipated late Thursday night into Friday night. 0.05″ to 0.25″ possible. At this time, higher totals seem unlikely. Monitor updates, as always. Small changes in temperatures and precipitation duration could change the forecast considerably.
Watch and warning map – Click Here
Friday morning through Saturday night
Confidence: Low to medium
The next question will center on the Friday late morning into Saturday part of the forecast. Once again, where the freezing line settles is the important question.
Warmer air is forecast to push northward on Friday night into Saturday afternoon. It might be a slow process to scour out the cold air across parts of southeast Missouri and parts of southern Illinois.
Guidance has slowed the aggressive push of warm air. At one point it appeared 60’s were likely on Saturday and Sunday. Latest guidance has backed off those numbers. I will keep an eye on trends.
Here is what the NAM model guidance is forecasting for temperatures on Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon
This is the 3 pm Friday temperature map
Notice the wedge of colder air over portions of southeast Missouri? Complicated forecast.
This next map is for 3 AM on Saturday
This next map is for 3 PM on Saturday
Temperatures have moderated a little bit.
A lot of questions remain on this winter storm.
On and off precipitation will be with us from Thursday into Sunday. Several periods of rain and/or frozen precipitation
Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM guidance.
Green represents rain, pink is freezing rain, and purple represents sleet. The darker the shades the heavier the precipitation.
This first map is for 9 am on Friday
There remain some questions about just how much precip will appear on radar Friday morning. Some of the data shows very little. Keep this in mind.
3 PM Friday
9 PM Friday
3 AM Saturday
9 AM Saturday
3 PM Saturday
Winter weather outlooks will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated at least twice each week.
To register and receive the winter weather outlooks, please visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
If you would like to receive a text notification, when the winter weather outlooks are updated, then make sure you have opted in to text option three. The text options are found under the Personal Notification Settings tab on the weathertalk.com page.
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
These totals are through next Wednesday morning. Quite a bit of precipitation is forecast to fall across the region. Complicated forecast when it comes to totals. Multiple waves of precipitation are possible, but confidence is not all that high when it comes to the details.
Click to enlarge
These are the NOAA/WPC forecast totals. The heaviest band may still shift around a bit. Monitor updates.
This map is through Sunday morning at 6 am
North and south view of totals through Sunday morning
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Thursday morning low temperatures
Thursday afternoon high temperatures
Falling temperatures from north to south
Friday morning low temperatures
Friday afternoon high temperatures
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night: I can’t rule out storms on Wednesday night. Monitor updates. Lightning possible.
Thursday and Thursday night: Monitor updates. Storms are possible. Monitor updates.
Friday into Sunday: Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I continue to update the ice storm portion of the forecast.
Gusty winds on Wednesday night. Gusts above 40 mph.
Monitoring the potential for ice on Thursday night into the weekend. Complicated temperature forecast. The 32 degree line will need to be closely monitored. How far south it drifts will make all the difference in precipitation type across the region.
Ice storm likely for at least portions of MO and IL Thursday night into the weekend. Monitor watches and warnings.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our region’s weather patterns.
I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes the following:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
I am the owner and operator of Weather Talk (in partnership with The Fire Horn)
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple…
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
