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This would make a great Christmas present for someone 🙂
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For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
River Crest Forecasts are posted further down in the blog.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Avoid flooded roadways!
** New Years Eve ** Thursday night – Just a few clouds and colder.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 20s
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Friday – Quite a bit of sun anticipated. But, it will be cold.
Temperatures: Highs in the 36 to 42 degree range.
Winds: Northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Friday night – Winter like cold. Calm weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Saturday – Sunny. Winter like cold. Seasonal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 40s
Winds: West at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Saturday night – Clear and cold.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 20s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Sunday – Sunny. Winter like cold. Seasonal temperatures.
Temperatures: Highs in the 42 to 46 degree range
Winds: West at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Rivers and streams may have flooding problems. Large rises on rivers are possible over the coming week.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. River flooding is the concern
2. Major/historic river flooding will occur over the next seven days. Especially the Mississippi River
3. Colder weather into first week of January.
4. Avoid flooded roadways.
The big news story over the coming days will be the river flooding. It has already made national news. And, it will continue to do so.
Numerous roads are closed. Please avoid flooded roadways. I know I say that a dozen times, but people continue to drive into flood waters. Very dangerous for themselves and for the people who have to rescue them. They also have families. Don’t put other peoples lives at risk.
Latest list from Illinois – Click Here
Latest list from Kentucky – Click Here
Latest list from Missouri – Click Here
Sharp rises will continue on most area rivers. If you live along the river and have experienced flooding in the past then monitor the latest river crest levels. This is especially true along the Mississippi River. This will not be another 2011 for the Ohio River in Metropolis and Paducah. But, other areas will be hit harder than 1993 and 2011.
The crest numbers will be extremely high on the Mississippi River. Record crest levels are forecast for several locations. One location could be Cape Girardeau, Missouri. There, we may touch the record high crest level.
Monitor the latest information from your local, city, and state government officials. In the event of evacuations, those will be your best sources for information. Be sure and obtain your information from a reputable source. There have already been rumors spreading over the last couple of days. Your local and state officials can answer your questions with factual information.
The jet stream over the next 3-5 days won’t have any major dips in our region. Seasonably cold temperatures are likely into the weekend. Nothing extreme.
Here is the Saturday jet stream map. A bit of a dip over the southwest United States. It then rides up into the southlands.
Here is the Monday jet stream map (January 4th)
I am not tracking any winter storms for our region. I have been saying winter arrives in February and March. We shall see.
It has been an extremely warm December. This is the second warmest month compared to north for any month of record in Paducah, Kentucky. Records go back to 1937. So, this is a big deal.
It was the warmest December ever recorded in Paducah, Kentucky. And, the warmest December on record for Evansville, Indiana.
Let’s look at a few other maps.
Since December 1st
This is the temperature departure map. Literally the entire nation was warmer than normal
Zoomed in on our area
This is the precipitation departure map for our region. Above normal precipitation.
This is the percent of normal precipitation map. Check out some of these huge numbers. Some locations in the Missouri River Valley were 400% above normal. No wonder we have flooding.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Clickable map
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
No snow anticipated.
Friday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Saturday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Sunday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Monday – No snow or ice anticipated.
Tuesday – No snow or ice anticipated.
No major changes in this update.
The main concern for the coming week will be sharp rises on area rivers. Some historic crest numbers are being forecast for the Mississippi River. Large rises are expected on the Ohio River.
Monitor the latest crest forecast numbers.
Avoid flooded roadways.
Monitor river stages.
Avoid flooded roadways.
The wild card in the forecast will be crest levels on the Mississippi River and Ohio River. It appears there will be sharp rises on both rivers. Will Cape Girardeau, Missouri reach their highest crest in recorded history? It does appear possible.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain in the forecast (or snow)
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO for the next seven day.
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No risk of severe weather through next Thursday.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
