Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 8th and 9th: Colder.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).  For all of your families eye care needs.

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.

They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.

If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli.  For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.


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Looking for some tasty holiday treats?  Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need.  Located in Benton, Kentucky.  They even deliver!

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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next).  The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The APP allows instant delivery.  You can keep your test messages on and use the APP.  You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.

We are working on the Android APP.  Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.

The APP is for subscribers.

The direct download can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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February 8, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
: Rain or snow/sleet showers ending before midnight.  Rain may end as snow or wintry mix.  The best chance of this would be over southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky.  Turning sharply colder.  Black ice possible.  Patches of black ice is moisture left on roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots that can freeze as temperatures fall.  Windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Spotty slick spots possible, especially over Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Low wind chill values.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20% before 8 pm  IL ~ 50% before 8 pm   KY ~ 50% before 8 pm  TN ~ 30% before 8 pm
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some rain/snow showers possible.  May end as wintry mix.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 19 to 26  IL ~ 18 to 25   KY ~ 22 to 26   TN ~ 24 to 30
Winds:  North at and northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind Chill when applicable:  8 above to 20 above
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? Snow or snow/sleet possible early in the evening.  Mainly over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Moonrise will be at 3:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 9, 2017
Thursday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun with intervals of clouds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Early morning patchy slick spots possible where precipitation lingered on Wednesday night.
Is severe weather expected
? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:   MO ~ 34 to 40  IL ~  34 to 38    KY ~ 34 to 38  TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds:  North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:  18 to 26
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:48  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:29 p.m.
UV Index
: 0 to 2
Moonrise 
will be at 4:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous


Thursday Night Forecast Details
:
Forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  Chilly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:  MO ~ 22 to 28  IL ~ 22 to 28   KY ~ 24 to 28   TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds:  South at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
Wind Chill when applicable:  20 to 26
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? No
Moonrise will be at 4:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:40 a.m. Waxing Gibbous

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February 10, 2017
Friday 
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Breezy.  Warmer.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected
? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 50 to 56  IL ~  50 to 56    KY ~ 50 to 56    TN ~ 50 to 56  
Winds
: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:47  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:30 p.m.
UV Index
: 2 to 3
Moonrise 
will be at 5:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:26 a.m. Full moon

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Not as cold.  A 10% of a shower after 4 am.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated. Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 45 to 50   IL ~ 50 to 55   KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds:  South winds 9 to 18 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? None
Moonrise will be at 5:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:26 a.m. Full moon
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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.

Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

Visit their website here.  Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. 


Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.



 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

Analysis

Wednesday night
Confidence: Medium to high

If anyone has storm damage information from Lyon or Trigg County, then please let me know.  There was a radar indicated tornado in those two counties on Tuesday night.  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Rain showers will end on Wednesday night.  Colder air will arrive with the system, as it departs.  Rain may change to a period of snow/sleet across mainly southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.

Here is the HRRR Model.  You can see the blue area.  That is where rain has changed to snow.  This is one models opinion.  It is certainly possible that the rain ends as a wintry mix or snow.

Actual snow accumulation is not the main concern.  The main concern is black ice.

The main concern will be moisture left on roads.  Temperatures will fall into the 20’s overnight.  If rain or snow showers continue into the evening hours then some of that moisture could freeze on roadways.  This is called black ice.  Use care later this evening and tonight.

Otherwise, clouds will linger into the night.  We should see some clearing late.  Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to middle 20’s.  Gusty winds will produce wind chill numbers into the 8 above to 20 above range.  It will feel like February.

 

Thursday into Friday night
Confidence: Medium

No significant weather anticipated Thursday into Friday night.  Thursday will be a chilly day with below normal temperatures, for once.  Highs will likely remain in the 30’s area-wide.  Brrr

A warming trend begins on Friday.  Highs will jump into the 50’s.  Above normal temperatures, again.

There should be an increase in clouds on Friday night.

Gusty winds are possible Thursday night into the weekend.

 

Saturday and Sunday
Confidence: Medium

Rain showers will enter the forecast on Saturday and will last into Sunday.  Still some question on coverage and intensity.  At this time, severe weather does not appear to be a concern.

Rainfall totals should remain on the light side.  NOAA, at this time, has painted totals in the 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Let’s keep an eye on it.   There remain some question as to coverage over the weekend.

 

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Find me on Twitter
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rainfallforecast

How much rain is expected over the coming days?
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Light rain Wednesday night.  Light snow possible Wednesday night.   Totals of less than 0.15″ liquid.  Small chance for a brief burst of snow over the Mt Vernon, IL area eastward between 4 pm and 9 pm tonight (Wednesday night).  Perhaps this will extend into northwest Kentucky.
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We will have additional rain chances this weekend.  This is the current rain forecast.  Low confidence this far out.  This is the official NOAA outlook.  Adjustments are likely.

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High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Thursday low temperature forecast

Thursday afternoon high temperature forecast

Friday low temperature forecast

Friday high temperature forecast

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whatamiconcered

No major concerns.

 

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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No major changes.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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