Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Rain totals through Saturday morning. The front stalling will be key to higher rain totals. If the front stalls farther northwest then the heavier totals will shift northwest, as well.
Rain totals through Wednesday morning. Again, let’s watch where the front stalls this weekend. There may be shifts in these numbers.
A bit of a range of temperatures today. Cooler northeast. Warmer southwest. This is based on cloud cover.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
If you have not subscribed to my YouTube Channel then click on this link and it will take you to my videos.
Click the button below and it will take you to the Beau Dodson YouTube Channel.
48-hour forecast
.
.
Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I am watching Thursday night. Watching Saturday into Sunday, as well. The weekend lightning chances will depend on where the front stalls.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching Monday and Tuesday. Another storm system will pass through the region with rain or snow. It is too early to know precipitation type.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? MONITOR. I am watching Monday and Tuesday. Another storm system will pass through the region with rain or a wintry mix. It is too early to know precipitation type.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
.
Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night. 4. Low risk.
Thursday through Thursday night: 5. Moderate risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Well above normal temperatures can be expected today through Saturday. It will be dry with some sunshine today, then on Thursday it will become breezy with rain chances spreading across our region during the afternoon into Thursday night. It will be mainly dry on Friday, then good chances of rain will return Friday night. On and off rain chances will continue through the weekend into Monday, with temperatures dropping back to just a few degrees above normal by Sunday.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
.
.
Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 5:26 PM .
.
Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 43° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:25 AM
Moonset: 2:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Thursday, February 08, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 5:27 PM .
.
Thursday Night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of rain. A thunderstorm will be possible. Breezy and mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous. More east vs west.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: South 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 6:17 AM
Moonset: 3:56 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
.
Friday, February 09, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and breezy. A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mainly our far southeast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty. Becoming west southwest.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 5:28 PM .
.
Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. An embedded thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:00 AM
Moonset: 5:16 PM
The phase of the moon: New
.
Saturday, February 10, 2024
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances will be higher southeast vs northwest. We will need to monitor where the front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. More southeast vs northwest.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. South southwest over Kentucky and Tennessee. There will be a front dividing the area.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 5:29 PM .
.
Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm. The rain chances will again be higher near the stalled front. That would be our eastern and southeastern counties. We will need to monitor where the front stalls.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 7:36 AM
Moonset: 6:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
-
- Complicated forecast. A stalled front could cause changeable forecast numbers for the weekend.
- Well above average temperatures. Areas with clouds will be a bit cooler, keep that in mind.
- Cold front arrives Thursday PM into the weekend with showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms.
- Rain totals have been lowered for Thursday night. Mostly in the 0.01″ to 0.15″ range. Higher totals are now possible Friday into the weekend.
- A tricky forecast for Monday and Tuesday. We will need to monitor temperatures. If it were a tad colder, then snow would be possible.
- I continue to watch mid to late February into March for several cold shots.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Forecast Discussion
A complicated forecast over the next six days. Multiple systems to monitor.
No weather concerns today through Thursday morning. It will be mild. It will be breezy. Occasional gusts above 30 mph Thursday and Thursday night.
A cold front will approach the region Thursday and Thursday night. It will push through the region Friday and Saturday. It will stall somewhere in or near our eastern southeastern counties.
Where the front stalls will be key to rain totals. A few thunderstorms will be possible, as well. For now, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. A few storms could cause gusty winds.
Peak rain chances will be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night and again Friday night and Saturday night.
Yet another system will move into the region Monday and Tuesday. For now, rain is in the forecast. A curious number of ensembles show a snowstorm. This does raise some concerns about the temperature and precipitation type forecast.
Again, for now I have rain in the forecast. Closely monitor forecasts in case I need to adjust temperatures. A tad colder and a wet snow event would develop Monday and Tuesday.
Plan on rain, but monitor the forecast.
I will need to see more data over the next couple of days.
Here is the GFS. Blue is snow.
Here is the EC model.
Here is the blend of models snow totals.
Temperatures will be WELL above average over the coming days. SPRING FEVER is likely to set in.
Wednesday afternoon temperature departures. How many degrees above average? Normal highs are in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.
Double click images to enlarge them.
Thursday afternoon departures.
Friday morning departures
Saturday morning departures
Saturday afternoon departures. These numbers could be even higher.
Colder air is showing up in the long range.
Check out temperature anomalies today and tomorrow. A mild nation!
Now, let’s look ahead.
Here is the Canadian model for February 16th. Those green colors represent well below average temperatures. Nothing crazy, but colder.
The GFS model shows the same. Colder air.
The EC model is also cold.
The bigger question isn’t the cold.
I have been telling you for weeks that colder air will push into the region mid to late FEB into early MAR.
The bigger question is precipitation. Will there be snow or a wintry mix. And that question can’t be answered. There are uncertainties about storm tracks.
If the tracks are too far south, then we miss out on snow. I will need to monitor the data over the coming days.
Winter isn’t over. At least the cold. Time will tell on the precipitation aspect of the forecsat.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
.
Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
.
Tornado Probability Outlook
.
Large Hail Probability Outlook
.
High wind Probability Outlook
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
.
.
The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
_______________________________________
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
.
This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them. Blue is snow. Pink is a wintry mix. Green is rain.
.
This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the GFS Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
.
This animation is the EC Model.
Green is rain. Yellow and orange are heavier rain. Pink is a wintry mix. Blue is snow. Dark blue is heavier snow.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50″ to 1.00″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
