Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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Looking for some tasty holiday treats? Fluff Cupcakes has what you and your family need. Located in Benton, Kentucky. They even deliver!
**** VALENTINE’S DAY SPECIAL **** $25 dollar special includes ~ 4 assorted Valentine fluff cupcakes in a fabulous box! 18″ Mylar Happy Valentine Day cupcake balloon tied to the box! Valentine’s Day enclosure card! Free delivery in Marshall County! Free delivery to businesses in Paducah, Murray, and Mayfield! Payment is required at time of order. To place an order you can message Tracy on the fluff cupcake page, email, text, or call. Tracy will invoice thru PayPal, & also accepts credit/debit cards, cash, and/or checks. 270-205-2552 tracyd@dcelectricinc.com
I have used Fluff Cupcakes, during Thanksgiving and Christmas, for the last couple of years. I can tell you that the cupcakes are delicious. Be sure and contact Tracy and place your order. Birthdays, holidays, or just because! Visit them on Facebook at this link – click here
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple users (Android is next). The purpose of this APP is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The APP allows instant delivery. You can keep your test messages on and use the APP. You can set the APP to turn off your text messages and just receive them through the APP.
We are working on the Android APP. Hopefully, it will be available in a week or so.
The APP is for subscribers.
The direct download can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
February 6, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Windy. Rising temperatures. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Some thunderstorms could produce hail. Warm with well above normal temperatures. Strong winds could cause issues tonight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Gradient wind gusts above 40 mph are a possibility. Lightning. Some storms could produce hail and gusty winds. There is a small risk for tornadoes. A non-zero risk.
Is severe weather expected? Yes, hail is possible. Strong and gusty gradient winds, as well. A non-zero tornado risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~80% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, to perhaps numerous, at times. Lower than normal confidence on coverage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~55 to 60 IL ~ 54 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible (isolated higher winds possible).
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 1:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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February 7, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce gusty winds. A mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon with WELL above normal temperatures. Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps a few strong storms. Severe weather risk appears limited.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars. Have a plan B in mind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 70 IL ~ 60 to 72 KY ~ 60 to 72 TN ~ 60 to 72
Winds: South and southwest winds 10 to 25 mph and gusty. Winds may become westerly late in the day
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:27 p.m.
UV Index: 1 to 3
Moonrise will be at 2:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Storms will have come to an end by Tuesday night. Lingering clouds overnight. Cooler.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? Storm threat should have ended
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Small chance early Wednesday morning for some showers near Mt Vernon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 45 TN ~ 38 to 45
Winds: Becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 2:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:50 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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February 8, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A 30% for snow or rain showers over northern parts of southern Illinois into northwest Kentucky. A 30% for showers elsewhere. A large temperature difference from north to south. Mt Vernon may remain in the 30’s. Parts of west KY and TN may rise into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Keep this in mind.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low confidence on some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps spotty precipitation. That would include Mt Vernon, IL into northwest Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 54 IL ~ 36 to 54 KY ~ 40 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North at 6 to 12 mph
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Unlikely, but monitor updates over our northern counties.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 5:28 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 1
Moonrise will be at 3:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Some storms could produce hail and high winds. I can’t rule out severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening. There is a non-zero tornado risk, as well.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 24 to 28 IL ~ 24 to 28 KY ~ 25 to 30 TN ~ 25 to 30
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? Unlikely
Moonrise will be at 3:17 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:47 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Three concerns
- Strong and gusty winds possible on Monday night. Wind gusts above 40 mph are possible. These will be gradient winds. Gradient winds are because of tight pressure gradients. Rapidly rising or falling pressure readings.
- Thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday morning could produce quarter size hail or larger. Can’t rule out high winds from some storms, as well. There is a low risk for isolated tornadoes on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
- Severe weather threat will diminish on Tuesday morning. A few afternoon storms possible, but severe weather risk now appears limited.
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night: Some storms could produce hail. Strong and gusty winds because of a tight pressure gradient. Winds could gust above 40 mph. There is a non-zero tornado risk on Monday night. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. An isolated tornado risk.
Tuesday: Morning storms with lightning and gusty winds. Small severe weather risk.
Analysis
Monday night and Tuesday
Confidence: Low to medium
A complicated weather setup for Monday night. Warm and moist air will continue to move northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will occur as an area of low pressure develops to our west and northwest. The low will deepen overnight and push into Illinois by Tuesday morning.
Strong and gusty winds will occur as the pressure gradient tightens up.
You can see that tight pressure gradient on this map
Those black lines are called isobars. Equal lines of pressure. When they tighten up you typically have gusty winds.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday night. Some of the storms could be intense with hail and gusty winds. There is also a small tornado risk.
There is a CAP in the atmosphere that could keep thunderstorms from becoming surface based. If storms were to become surface based then they could tap into the low level wind fields. This would cause a greater concern for severe weather. As it stands, the CAP is forecast to hold.
Elevated thunderstorms will likely develop. Typically, elevated thunderstorms are hail producers. Thus, there is a chance for hail on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
CAPE is a measure of instability. Higher CAPE numbers typically mean better chances for strong thunderstorms. This is especially true as wind fields aloft increase. CAPE – what is it? Link
Here is the future-cast radar for later on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The models are not handling the placement of precipitation all that well. Thus, confidence is lower than normal on how this plays out late tonight into Tuesday morning.
This image is for 1 am Tuesday (Monday night/Tuesday morning)
A few spotty showers and storms in the region.
Here is the 5 am future-cast radar. This model is showing quite a bit of activity over Arkansas and Tennessee.
This next image is for 7 am on Tuesday. Again, this is one model’s opinion on where storms might develop.
This next image is for 9 am
This particular model pushes activity out of the region on Tuesday afternoon. Here is the 12 pm future-cast radar
Again, confidence on exact placement and coverage of storms is questionable, at best. Monitor updates moving forward. Monitor all watches and warnings (if issued).
I will be using the texting service to alert people of severe weather and tornadoes. Make sure you have signed up for the texts. Make sure text option one is on. That is the most important text option.
Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the NAM forecast for rain totals. Thunderstorms could produce higher totals
In this type of setup, it is possible that some areas receive very little in the way of rainfall.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Tuesday morning low temperatures
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
